Transcript Climate vulnerability profiling of Indian cities

Climate vulnerability
profiling of Indian cities
Integrated Research and Action for
Development (IRADe),
C-80, Shivalik, New Delhi-110017
Introduction
Cities, with total population reaching in millions are becoming
focal points for climate change impacts and urbanization in
turn results in growing vulnerability to environmental hazards.
Today India accounts for 17 per cent of the world’s population
Urban population increased from 25.8 million to 377 million
in 2011
The net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect
to 1970s ranges between 1.7oC – 2.2oC, with extreme
temperatures increasing by 1-4oC
Climate change has impacted the frequency and intensities of
the natural hazards
Disaster events in India
35
30
Occurence
25
20
Bihar
Gujarat
Andhra
15
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
10
5
0
1950-1959
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
Axis Title
1990-1999
2000-2009
Aim of the study
To conduct an objective and comprehensive vulnerability Profiling
of 20 Indian cities while assessing the climate change adaptation
needs of the country .
Objectives:
1. To assist policy‐makers in assessing and responding to the risks
associated with climate change in Indian cities.
2. To identify and characterize the hazards associated with climate
change at the city‐level; (mainly JNNURM Cities)
3. Identify the most vulnerable population segments and ecosystems
(people, locations, sectors) of the city; and
4. Assess the city’s ability or capacity to adapt to anticipated changes.
5. Developing a policy brief that includes specific recommendations
on how to effectively mainstream climate resilience in various
national level initiatives
20 Cities from 14 States are selected for study
Methodology
• IRADe Assessment framework -HIGS
Vulnerability Profiling Template for Each City
Variables
Socio- Economic Characteristics
Population
Density
Slum Population
Percent of urban area (or population) susceptible to flooding.
City % of national GDP
Hazard and extreme events
Temperature observed trends and future projections
Rainfall observed trend and projections.
Extreme events(floods)
Drought
Infrastructure status
Water supply
Sewerage
Solid waste management
Storm water drainage
Transportation
Power
Housing
Governance
Administrative unit assigned to address climate change
Willingness of City leadership to address climate change
Description
Case Study Delhi
Delhi is the capital state of India
and an important power centre
of the nation since the ages
Population in 2011 was 16.3 million
In 2001, Delhi UA was home to a
population of 13 million
Delhi is second highly populated city in India after
Mumbai
Disaster Profile of the city
Flood frequency
• Floods in Delhi are not so
much a natural
phenomenon as is due to
poor urban management
and governance issue.
• This is very clear from the
recurring phenomenon of
floods in the river Yamuna
and flash floods caused by
rains due to choked drains
of Delhi.
Flood vulnerability
 The city has been experiencing floods of various magnitudes in the
past due to floods in the Yamuna and the Najafgarh Drain system.
 The Yamuna crossed its danger level (fixed at 204.83m) twenty five
times during the last 33 years.
 Since 1900, Delhi has experienced six major floods in the years 1924,
1947, 1976, 1978, 1988 and 1995 when peak level of Yamuna river was
one meter or more above danger level of 204.49m at old rail bridge
(2.66m above the danger level) occurred on sixth September 1978. The
second record peak of 206.92m was on twenty seventh September
1988.
Year
1977
1978:
Enormity of damages
Najafgarh drain experienced heavy floods due 21 Dead, Crop damage worth
to discharge from the Sahibi River.
Rs 10 million
Widespread breaches
(September) embankments of Yamuna
occurred
in
rural
The total damage to crops,
houses and public utilities was
estimated at Rs 176.1 million.
1988:
Yamuna experienced floods of very high
Over 8000 families affected
(September) magnitude, flooding many villages and localities
High floods following heavy runs in the upper
15,000
catchmen area and resultant release of water
(September)
homeless
from Tajewala water works.
1995:
Source: http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/doit_dm/DM/Home/Vulnerabilities/Hazards/Floods
families
became
Flood Zoning
 thirteen zones based on the flooding risk in relation to incremental rise in the water
level of the Yamuna (DDA, 1993).
 Cover a range from 199m to 212 m level of water in the Yamuna.
 This zoning map covers part of North Delhi on the West bank of the Yamuna and
almost the entire Trans Yamuna Area on the East bank.
 Besides this, the Delhi Flood Control Order has also divided NCT of Delhi into four
Flood Sectors, namely Sectors, namely, Shahadra; Wazirabad – Babrapur; Alipur; and
Nangloi - Najafgarh sectors.
 Overflow causing many monsoon related diseases.
Local Flooding
• Increasing during recent years. Urban areas are characterized by a high area under
impervious surfaces (Roads, pavements, houses etc).
 High surface water run-off rates resulting in loss of soft landscape This results in flash
floods in the low-lying areas even after moderate precipitation.
 Flooding due to the city's 18 major drains has also become a common phenomenon.
Already under the pressure of the city's effluent discharge, these drains experience
reverse flow from the Yamuna.
Source: http://www.delhi.gov.in/DoIT/DOIT_DM/risks%20and%20vulnerability-1.pdf
Settlement Pattern in Flood Plain
 High-risk zones have high population densities and sub standard housing structures.
These include areas of North Delhi, and Trans Yamuna Area.
 Families living in the villages and unauthorized colonies within the river-bed are
exposed to the highest risk from floods. There are over 15,000 such families, having over
75,000 persons.
 Direct effect of floods in the river Yamuna and the city's network of drains, affects the
population living in the Yamuna River-bed.
 Local flash floods and water logging increased surface run-off due to high ratio of hard
surfaces leading to flash floods.
 Risk of break in embankments: Protection from the river by embankments leads to a
false sense of safety and development starts taking place in the shadow of these
embankments.
Sources:
Delhi CDP, October, 2006, Department of Urban Development Government of Delhi, IL&FS Ecosmart Limited, New Delhi
http://www.delhi.gov.in/DoIT/DOIT_DM/risks%20and%20vulnerability-1.pdf
Institutional framework
The institutional framework for urban management in Delhi has a multiplicity of
agencies, both central and state. The institutions/agencies are categorized as
(A) Central Government Agencies; (B) State Government Agencies.
Issues
National
Functions
versus local
functions
Status
Delhi, being the National capital, has to serve certain functions directly
under the jurisdiction of Central Government. These clashes with the
establishment of an effective local government incorporating citizen’s
participation.
Implementatio
n of 74th CAA
Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi has implemented the
74thAmendment to the Constitution.
Overlapping of
jurisdiction
There is a lack of clarity over departmental responsibilities for land use
planning, development, maintenance and enforcement. This has resulted in
ineffective and uncoordinated decision making and actions. For eg., the
boundaries of the revenue districts and the MCD zones do not match
Overlapping of
functions
Other
Infrastructure
Sectors
Delhi Development Authority (DDA) has failed to identify and coordinate
with the State Government.
Multiplicity of Organizations Lack of coordination and no common data base
for management Conflicting and overlapping jurisdictions e.g.: three
different agencies are responsible for storm water drainage in the city
Source: Delhi CDP, October, 2006, Department of Urban Development Government of Delhi, IL&FS Ecosmart Limited, New Delhi
Emerging issues in the city
 While Delhi is making progress towards climate
mitigation through emission reductions and
environmental improvements, there is a significant lack
of awareness and planning about the issues of
adaptation to climate change.
 Mehrotra et al (2009) note that Delhi’s response so far
is often project oriented hence various incentives (i.e.
subsidies and grants) have been effective for initiating
projects,
 Rainwater‐harvesting systems installation subsidies
have created demand Such experiences hold the
potential to inform adaptation efforts as well.
 Delhi’s local efforts will need to be reconciled with
regional and national priorities.
Delhi’s Vulnerability
Sources
HAZARD
Temperature observed trends and
future projections
Rainfall observed trend and
projections
Extreme events
Slight warming since 1900,; 2006 lowest
temperature .2*C since 1935; ; 44.9°C,
highest recorded temp in 2007; 1.5°C to
2.5°C projected warming
14mm per decade increase since 1900
with large variability, projected change
uncertain
Center for Climate Systems
Research, Columbia University as
cited in Mehrotra et al 2009
Center for Climate Systems
Research, Columbia University and
IMD, Regional Meteorological
Center, Delhi as cited in Mehrotra
et al 2009
Extreme precipitation July 1994, July
1995, June 2003, Sep 2011; extreme
temperature May 1978, April 1988, May
1996; faces inland flooding due to
intense precipitation during monsoons
EXPOSURE
Population
Density
Poor Population
16 million; 500,000 added per year
1,400/km2
1.5 million live below poverty line; 45%
live in unregulated settlements
Census 2001 (update this with
Census 2011)
Contd……………
Delhi’s Vulnerability
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Institutions and governance measures National corruption perception index (NCPI) as measured by
affecting climate change actions
Transparency International
Willingness of City leadership to address Key steps taken by the Government of Delhi : public transport uses
climate change
world’s largest fleet of CNG ; introduction of BRTS, and Delhi Metro
Member C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group; People action for
right to clean air; Supreme Court judgment requiring fuel switch in
public transport;
Analysis of climate risks of the city
National action plan on climate change prepared in June 2008,
Delhi is the first state to come up with an action plan to
tackle climate change, in line with the Prime Minister's
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC), The plan
identifies 65 actions to be taken in various fields like solar
mission, energy efficiency, green India, water conservation,
sustainable habitat and others in 2009-2012.
Administrative unit assigned to address Mitigation and adaptation effort led by the MOEF and Delhi CM office
climate change
A Comparative Overview
Vulnerability Matrix
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Thiruvananthpuram
Kochi
Puri
Srinagar
Shilong
Dehradun
Hyderabad
Delhi
Ahmedabad
Allahabad
Haridwar
Bengaluru
Jodhpur
Indore
Bhubaneswar
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
A
A
A
A
Y
1.7
B
1.6
2.1
0.2
1.2
0.3
0.7
7.7
16.3
6.3
1.2
0.3
8.5
1.1
2.1
0.8
B
B
C
B
C
C
A
A
A
B
C
A
B
B
C
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
5
25
9
45
18
90
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
19
95
6
30
10
50
16
80
Y
Vulnerable
Y
Y
Y
Vulnerable
Y
Y
Y
Categorization
Y
141
184
8.6
4.5
Y
Y
(
Populatio
milli n base in
on) 2011
MSW
Drainage
Sewerage
Heat /
waves
Cyclones
Y
Vulnerable
Hill
Riverine
Mixed
Y
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
15
75
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
11
55
Issues
Y
Y
Y
Issues
Visakhapatnam
Cities
Y
Issues
5
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Issues
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Water supply
cold
Y
Y
Y
Landslides
Flooding
Kolkata
Mumbai
Chennai
Surat
Coastal
1
2
3
4
Total Vulnerable cities
Total (%)
Infrastructure
Drought
City Name
Classification
S.No.
Hazards
Categorisation
cities on basis
population
> 4 million = A
1-4 million. = B.
of
of
Key Findings
Percetage of Cities Vulnerable to Different Type of
Natural Hazards
Heat / cold
waves
24%
Drought
23%
Most of the cities are vulnerable to
floods and droughts. this is mainly due
to drainage issues in the cities .
Maximum number of cities faces
issues with municipal solid waste
management
Percentage of Cities Facing Issues in services
Cyclones
15%
Landslides
9%
Flooding
29%
Water supply
12%
MSW
26%
Sewerage
21%
Sewage collection and treatment is
another major issue faced by the cities
Drainage
41%
Puri
Jodhpur
Haridwar
Shillong
Drought
Dehradun
Vishakhapatn…
Bhubaneshwar
Cyclone
Allahabad
Srinagar
Thiruvanathpu…
Landslides
Kochi
Indore
Surat
Ahmedabad
Hyderabad
Bengaluru
Chennai
Kolkata
Delhi
Mumbai
Hazards exposure
Flood
Flood prone cities in India
% of Flood Prone JNNURM Cities
Delhi
Vishakapatnam
Bhuvneshwar
Kanpur
Imphal
Nainital
Meerut
Vadodara
Guwahati
Allahabad
Ahmedabad
Cochin
Thiruvananthapuram
Lucknow
Surat
Agra
Patna
Vijaywada
Faridabad
Asansol
Kolkata
Mathura
Varanasi
Ludhiana
Amritsar
0
20
40
60
80
100
Puri
Haridwar
Shillong
Dehradun
Bhubaneshwar
Jodhpur
Allahabad
Srinagar
Thiruvanathpuram
Vishakhapatnam
Population in 2001
Kochi
Indore
Surat
Ahmedabad
18,000,000
Hyderabad
Bengaluru
Chennai
Kolkata
Delhi
Mumbai
Social Aspects
20,000,000
Population in 2011
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
Source: IRADe Analysis 2012 (data source-census 2011)
Kolkata
Mumbai
Allahabad
Delhi
Puri
Vishakhapatnam
Srinagar
Jodhpur
Shillong
Chennai
Bhubaneshwar
Dehradun
Hyderabad
Ahmedabad
Haridwar
Indore
Bengaluru
Kochi
Surat
Thiruvananthapuram
Decadal Growth of population 2001-2011(in percentage)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Infrastructure
1. There are only three cities with
water supply above 135 lpcd
14.8
Kolkata
15.6
Allahabad
18.5
Hyderabad
22.0
Indore
32.6
Delhi
33.2
Bengaluru
36.9
Thiruvanathpuram
38.5
Jodhpur
38.9
Mumbai
77.9
Haridwar
78.8
Surat
42
38
Puri
73
Kolkata
76
Indore
96
Bhubaneshwa
r
107
2. Mega
Percentage of sewerage treated
Vishakhapatnam
122
Bangalore
130
Hyderabad
135
Kochi
Delhi
135
Mumabi
144
Surat
Thiruvananth
apuram
147
Jodhpur
165
Vishakhapatn
am
Per capita Water Supply
city like Kolkata is in critical
stage
3. Cities with population more than
million provide less than 135lpcd
4. Most of the cities has less than 50% of
sewerage treated
100.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Incidences of water logging and flooding
Strom Water Drainage
Puri
Vishakhapatnam
1. Most of the cities have poor
storm water drainage system
2. In 2010-2011 most of the
cities have experienced flood
and water logging incidences
more than 80 times
3. Hyderabad has experienced
maximum number of water
logging and urban flooding in
2010-2011
Bangalore
Indore
Jodhpur
Bhubaneshwar
Kochi
Surat
Trivendrum
Delhi
Hyderabad
15
22
31
45
68
81
104
128
180
206
351
Recommendations &The Way Forward
• Flood Moderation and maintaining water
bodies:
• Reduce non-climate stressors
• Conduct medium- and long-term planning
• To put Climate resilient agenda on the
priority list
• Capacity building at local, national levels
The way forward
The Central Government has initiated various measures for assisting the States in the management of
floods, this includes:
(i)
There was setting up of the Rashtriya Barh Ayog in 1976 to look into the flood problem and
suggest remedial measures. Based on its recommendations, flood management strategy in the
country was formulated and forwarded to all the concerned States;
(ii) Constitution of the Ganga Flood Control Commission in 1972 for the Ganga Basin States covering
all the 23 river systems of Ganga;
(iii) Constitution of the Brahmaputra Board fix flood management covering the rivers Brahmaputra, Bar
and their major tributaries;
(iv) Formulation of the National Water Policy, 2002, which has recommended fix the preparation of
basin-wise Master Plans for flood management and control and for providing adequate flood cushion
in the reservoir projects;
(v) Constitution of a Task Force in 2004 for Flood management and Erosion Control in Assam and its
neighboring States as well as Bihar, West Bengal and Eastern Uttar Pradesh.
(vi) A State Sector Scheme of the Ministry of Water Resources ‘Flood Management Programme” with
an outlay of Rs,80 billion has been approved by the Central Government. in November, 2007, for
providing Central assistance to the State Government for critical flood management and erosion
control works.
Climate Resilience Plan
Development of State / Regional
•
Vulnerability
assessment of JNNURM
cities at the state level
Incorporation of DRR
into Project Life Cycle
(PLC)
Strategic Role of ULBs in
implementing
sustainable Habitat
Mission.
Incorporation of
prudent climate
resilient plan into City
Development Plan &
Master Plan