Transcript No Slide Title

“Arab Climate Resilience Initiative”
First Regional Consultation Meeting
“The Impacts Of Climate Change Onِ Water Resources
”
Damascus, The Arab Republic of Syria
15-16 September 2010.
Dr. Naif Abu-Lohom
Prof. Dr. Abdulla Babaqi
Water & Environment Centre (WEC), Sana’a University
Republic of Yemen
Contents
• Background Information
• Yemen’s Climate Change Profile
• Challenges in Water Sector
• Scenarios of Climate Change Impact on water sector
• Main National Policies, Projects, Activities Undertaken to Address CC
• Recommendation to Mitigate and adopt with CC Impacts
• Opportunities for Interventions at Different Levels:
(Technical, Policy, Institutional, Support of Local Communities, etc)
Background Information
 Yemen signed UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified it in May 1996.
 Ratified Kyoto Protocol in September 2004.
 Established CDM Committee in 2007.
Yemen Climate Change Profile
UNESCO (1979), classified Yemen into 4 Climatic Zones:
Arid Zone (Rainfall =
100 – 250 mm/Y
Hyper- Arid Zone
Rainfall < 50 mm/Y
Semi Arid
Zone
Rainfall = 250
– 500 mm/Y
Sub-Humid
Zone
Rainfall > 500
mm/Y
Yemen Climate Change Profile
Temperature Trend
• Historical data (since 1970) indicate Warming become greater for
summer(+0.2°C/decade) than winter (+0.15°C/decade).
• According to IPCC report, Yemen is expected to warm by 3-4°C by 2080s
which is roughly 1.5 times the global mean response
Rainfall Variability In Yemen
• The average total annual
precipitation recorded for
about 100 years show
variability but without an
obvious and unpredictable
trend
• The extreme events are
increasingly becoming a
source of concern
(Hadramout & Almahra
Floods).
Rainfall Variability In Sana’a City
• The Fig. depicts the spatial distribution of rainfall in Sana’a City
measured at four stations
•
It shows significant differences in total rainfall over a period Jan. –
July 2007
Hadhramout Flood,
25th October, 2008
• The flooding comes after more than a full day of rain in Yemen, which normally
receives only a few inches of rain per year.
• A flash floods have claimed the lives of more than 140 persons and left more
than 20,000 without shelter in the Hadramout and Maharah Governorates
Vulnerable Sectors
to Climate Change Impacts
INC & NAPA identified 5 main sectors vulnerable to climate change
Impacts:
1. Water Resources
2. Agriculture
3. Coastal Zone
4. Biodiversity
5. Health and Tourism
Challenges In Water Sector
• Increased water scarcity and reduced water quality
• Per capita annual water resources of only 120 m3
• 10% of regional average and 2% of global average
• Over-exploitation of GW (3-8 meters/year annual drop in most of the
basins)
• Annual Abstraction in SB exceeds 4 times the recharge
• Irrigated area has expanded from 37,000 to about 1,200,000 ha
• Agriculture use more than 90 % of Water Resources
• Decrease Water Supply in most of the main cities (Sana’a, Taiz,Amran.)
• Increase water conflicts.
• Low irrigation water use efficiency (20-40%)
• Institutional and implementation capacity challenges for groundwater
management
Water status in Yemen
Total renewable water:
2.1 Bm3/y.
Total water use:
3.0 Bm3/y
Deficit:
900 Mm3/y
Flood Irrigation
ََِ َQat
Excessive Pumping
Impacts of Climate Change in Groundwater
Three simplified CC scenarios of the impacts of CC on groundwater for the
period 2025 up to 2080s were developed (WEC & HR Wallingford, 2010) . This
study financed by the World Bank in the framework of NAPA programe:
1. A “hot and dry” scenario
2. A “mid” scenario,
3. A “warm and wet” Scenario
These scenarios were developed based on the collected baseline data (19612000) i.e. :
1. Average annual Temperature
2. Average annual rainfall
3. 15 Global Climate Model (GCM)
Scenarios
Broad Characterization
Expectations:
- warming (1 to 1.6 °C)
- An increase in rainfall
- An increase in Runoff
and recharge
Expectations:
-
Considerable warming
(1.6 to 3.1 °C)
-
No significant change in
rainfall
Change in annual rainfall %
Expectations:
Warming Degree C
•
Decrease Rainfall,
•
Decline of runoff
and recharge
•
Temp. may
become too high
(2 to 4.5 °C)
Prospects of GW Abstraction & Climate Change
impacts for Yemen as a Whole
The Red Line is
common to all
scenarios up to
2025
By 2025 GW
reserves will be
exhausted &
abstraction will
equal recharge
After 2025, the GL shows
the extraction levels that
would be consistent with
current rates of recharge +
the extra resource
available from increased
recharge under the ‘warm
& wet’ scenario.
The RL after
2025 traces:
Average GW Recharge Baseline
Drop in
recharge &
abstractions
below current
recharge
levels under
Hot & Dry
Scenario
Main National Policies Undertaken to
Address the CC
 The Initial National Communication (INC) on CC was prepared on April, 2001
 The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, Yemen) was prepared
on 2008 and endorsed by Cabinet in March 2009.
 The Second National Communication (SNC) on CC was prepared on 2007- 09.
Some Relevant Existing national and sectoral strategies and plans
 Poverty Reduction Strategy, Vision 2025.
 National Water Sector Strategy and Investment Programme (NWSSIP)
 Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans
 Health and Environment Strategy
 Environmental Impact Assessment Policy
 World Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS)
 Establishment of Inter-ministerial CC Commission/Board, 2009:
(MWE, MAI, MoF, MLA, MFW, MoT, MTIT, EPA, NWRA)
Previous Projects
Related to CC
- National Level:
• A Study on climate change scenarios projections (2008/09)
• National Capacity Self Assessment for climate change, biodiversity
and combating desertification
• National Probabilistic Risks Assessment
• Hadramout and Al Mahra Probabilistic Risks Assessment
- Local Level:
• Municipality of Sana’a Natural Disaster Risk Evaluation and Urban
Planning
• Sana’a Integrated Storm water Management Plan
• Adapting to Water Scarcity for Yemen’s Vulnerable Communities:
(Case studies of Sana'a Basin , Sada’a Basin and Aden City)
On-going Projects
Related to CC
• Climate impacts on water resource management and agriculture (W. Bank)
• Climate impacts on Agrobiodiversity (World Bank)
• Rainfed Areas Livestock Project
• Agro-biodiversity and Adaptation Project
• Water Sector Support Program
• Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project (World Bank)
• Sana’a Basin Water Management Project
• Integrated Coastal Zone Management
• Irrigation Improvement Project
Planned Projects Related to CC
• Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR)
Recommendations to Mitigate and Adopt
with Climate Change Impacts
 Improving governance through transparency and an active civil
society role,
 Capacity Building and awareness Programme at all levels
 Empowering rural communities so that they can participate in
assessments and feed in their knowledge to provide useful climate
information;
 Integrate climate resilience into the design of new infrastructure for
irrigation and flood control
 Developing an early warning systems which can help to anticipate and
prevent disasters
 Integrating climate change impacts into economic planning for the
national budget.
The opportunities for interventions
1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and agriculture
• Updating knowledge on critical basins to determine safe yields and
storage capacities of aquifers and surface water resources.
• Upgrading the network of hydro-meteorological monitoring stations;
collating relevant agricultural, social and economic datasets to
enhance understanding of the system
• Developing and use appropriate tools such as Decision Support
System DSS at different levels (Catchment, Basin, County)
• Developing robust climate models that reduce the degree of
uncertainty in national and regional climate prediction.
•
Conducting Remote sensing and ground-truthing studies to identify
the relationship between climate and change in water resources, food
security and agriculture.
The opportunities for interventions
1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and Agriculture
Interventions
Suggested measures
1. More efficient
groundwater irrigation and
more use of groundwater
for supplementary irrigation
2. Investment in
infrastructure and improved
water use efficiency of
surface irrigation
3. Return to traditional
agricultural and water
harvesting techniques
4. Changing cropping
patterns, growing shorter
cycle
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Piped conveyance and distribution
Pressurized irrigation (drip, bubbler)
Improved irrigation management
Drought bridging through supplementary irrigation
Improved spate irrigation
Incorporating flood preparedness into surface irrigation management
Wastewater reuse
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Promoting water harvesting, fog harvesting
Terrace rehabilitation
Promoting improved livestock and rangeland systems
Varietal research (on short cycle or drought tolerant varieties, high
value low water using crops etc.)
Farming systems research
5. Adoption of integrated
management of the water
resource at all levels
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Develop capacity for planning and regulation on a partnership basis
Water resource evaluation and monitoring
Incentive structure to encourage efficient and sustainable use
Licensing, registration, regulation
Promote basin level planning and management
Support WUAs as the lowest building block of WR management
Watershed management in key catchments
The opportunities for interventions
2. Policies, Institutional and Capacity Building:
 Establishing a CC strategy endorsed by Cabinet and in consistence with
available strategies
 Accelerating formation of National Committee for CC adaptation and
representing all concern agencies
 Mainstreaming of climate change issues into all local, sub – national, national,
and sectorial planning processes
 Building institutional and technical capacity in the MWE, including NWRA, the
water utilities and GARWSP to better integrate climate change concerns into
water strategies and policies.
 Ensuring close cooperation among various agencies with interests in the water
sector, including MAI, MWE, NWRA, EPA, the water utilities, GARWSP, and
CAMA.
 Revision and development of Water Resources plans according to CC impacts
 Staff Capacity Building and provision of a suitable environment to perform
their tasks
The opportunities for interventions
3. Support of Local Community-:
 Investing in public awareness campaign of local communities about CC
impacts & adaptation
 Promote Capacity building of lo identify priorities and adaption with CC
 Involve local communities (LC, WUA) in planning and implementation process
of pilot projects
 Improve livelihood of local communities through implementation of certain
activities based on areas priorities
 Exchange experiences between community
representatives in different topographical areas
 Documentation of the local traditional, indigenous
knowledge and use it for CC adaptation
THANK YOU