Transcript CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN KERALA

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN
KERALA-AN OVERVIEW
Dr.Roy Kunjappy
Convenor, FANSA-Kerala Chapter/ Director CCHR
Centre for Community Health Research (CCHR),
Sadanathil bungalow, Vettikavala, Kottarakara ,
Kollam ,Kerala; India. Tel: 91 474 2403358; Mob: 09847282833; Email:[email protected] ; http://www.cchrindia.org
Kerala- Map
Kerala Geography
• Location: Kerala is a small strip of land lying at
the south-west corner of India. It lies to the north
of the equator between 8° 18' and 12° 48' north
latitude and 74° 52' and 77° 24' east longitude.
• Extend: Kerala extends over an area of 38,863
sq.km which is only 1.03 percent of the total
area of India. It has a total coastline of 580 km.
Its width varies greatly from west to east. It is
about 120 kilometres at its maximum and just 30
kilometres at its minimum.
Physiography
• Kerala is divided into three geographical
regions• Highlands
• Midlands
• Lowlands
Highlands
• The Highlands slope down from the Western Ghats
(also known as the Sahyadri) which rise to an average
height of 900m, with a number of peaks well over 1800
m in height. It is 18650 sq.km in area and accounts for
48 percent of the total land area of Kerala.
• This is the area of major plantations like tea, coffee,
rubber and various spices. This area is often known as
the Cardamom Hills. This region is one of the largest
producers of many spices especially cardamom from
which it earns its name
• Most of the rivers of Kerala originate from the Western
Ghats.
Midlands
• The Midlands, lying between the
mountains and the lowlands, is made up of
undulating hills and valleys. It is 16200
sq.km in area ie, about 40 percent of the
total land area.
• This is an area of intensive cultivation.
Cashew, coconut, arecanut, tapioca,
banana and vegetables of different
varieties are grown in this area.
Lowlands
• Lowlands are also known as the Coastal Area.
It covers an area of almost 4000 sq.km. It is
made up of numerous shallow lagoons known
locally as kayels, river deltas, backwaters and
shores of the Arabian sea and is essentially a
land of coconuts and rice.
• This area is very fertile and most of the paddy
cultivation is along this area. Kuttanad region of
Kerala is one of the very few places in India
where cultivation is done below sea level.
Climate
• Although Kerala lies close to the equator,
its proximity with the sea and the presence
of the fort like Western Ghats, provides it
with an equable climate which varies little
from season to season.
• The temperature varies from 28° to 32° C.
Southwest Monsoon and Retreating
Monsoon ( Northeast Monsoon ) are the
main rainy seasons.
Climatic seasons
• The temperature in Kerala normally
ranges from 28° to 32° C (82° to 90° F) on
the plains but drops to about 20° C (68° F)
in the highlands.
• Owing to its diversity in geographical
features, the climatic condition in Kerala is
diverse. It can be divided into 4 seasons Winter, Summer, South-West Monsoon
and North-East Monsoon.
Climate in Kerala
• Kerala receives an average rainfall of 118 inches (3,000
millimeters) annually.
• The rainfall amount in the State decreases towards the
south with decrease of height of Western Ghats. The
southern most district of Thiruvananthapuram where
Western Ghats are nearest to the sea coast and its
average height is also least in the State receives
minimum amount of rainfall.
• Kerala would have been a dry land because of the dry winds
blowing from the north, but for the Western Ghats which prevent this
wind from entering the land.
Temperature rise
• Temperature data for seven IMD stations of
kerala were collected from National Data Centre
of IMD, Pune from 1956 to 2004.(49years)
• There was an increase in maximum temperature
over Kerala by 0.64° C during the period of 49
years,
• Increase in minimum temperature was 0.23° C.
• Overall increase in annual average temperature
was 0.44° C.
• It indicated a clear upward trend in surface air
temperature of Kerala
Temperature rise
• Between 1961 and 2003 ( India
Meteorological Department ) the mean
annual maximum temperature over Kerala
has risen by 0.8 degree centigrade,
• The mean annual minimum temperature
has risen by 0.2 degree Celsius and
• The average increase by 0.5 degree
centigrade
Temperature rise:Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology,Pune)
• Place of study :Kozhikode (North
Kerala)&Trivandrum(South Kerala)
• Period of study: 1901—2007
• Annual max. temp. of North kerala increased by
1.2.degree celsius per 100 years
• Annual max.temp. of South kerala increased by
1.0.degree celsius per 100 years
• The increase in temp. was 0.4 degree celsius
per decade during the past three and half
decades
INCCAReport 2010
• Indian Network of Climate Change
Assessment Report-November 2010
• Climate Change and India: A 4X4
Assessment -A sectoral and regional
analysis for 2030s”
Temperature-(IMD)Indian
Meteorological Department,Pune
All-India annual mean, maximum and
minimum temperature variations
during 1901-2007
Increase in temperature projected
• Projections for the 2030s indicate an allround warming over the Indian
subcontinent associated with increasing
GHG concentrations.
• The annual mean surface air temperature
is projected to rise by 1.7°C and 2.0°C in
2030s
Western coastal region
• In the western coastal region, mean
annual temperatures are likely to increase
from a minimum of 26.8±0.4oC to
27.5±0.4oC in the 2030s.
• The rise in temperature with respect to the
1970s will be between 1.7oC and 1.8oC
Precipitation
• Kerala showed decreasing trend in
monsoon rainfall for the period 1901-2007
• After 1999,rainfall was below long term
average rainfall (except in 2006)
• Another study showed that Kerala
experienced decline in annual monsoon
rainfall during the recent past
decades(1961 and 2003 )
Projected increase in precipitation
(INCCA Report,2010)
• All the regions namely the Himalayan
region, the Western Ghats, the Coastal
Area and the North-East Region in India
show a small increase in annual
precipitation in the 2030s with respect to
the baseline, that is 1970s.
Coastal region
• Projections for the western coast indicate a variation in
rainfall from 935±185.33mm to 1794±247mm, which is
an increase of 6%–8% with respect to the1970s an
increase that is ranging from 69 to 109 mm.
• Though June, July and August (monsoon)show an
average increase of 8mm rainfall in 2030’s with respect
to 1970’s,
• The winter rainfall is projected to decrease on an
average by 19 mm during the period January and
February in 2030’s with reference to 1970’s.
• The period March, April and May also show a decrease
in rainfall with respect to1970s
Shift in rainfall pattern
• Rainfall data for the IMD stations of the
State of Kerala for the period from 1871 to
2008(140 years) revealed a declining
trend in annual and southwest monsoon
rainfall during the past 60 years
• and an increasing trend in post monsoon
rainfall, indicating likely shifts in rainfall
patterns.
Trends in seasonal precipitation
extremes-an indicator of CC
• A study on seasonal precipitation pattern
in Kerala during five decades(1954-2003)
showed that the seasonal extremes in
rainfall cause floods and water scarcity
which are indicators of climate change
(Indrani Pal and Abir Al Tabbaa,2008)
Kerala state faces problems
• Kerala state was facing serious crisis in
major areas of food security, agriculture,
health and marine resources due to
climate change.
• The agriculture sector in Kerala was badly
affected due to continuous rain.
• Similarly continuous rain has affected
maintenance and construction of roads
(Achuthanandan,2010)
Crop Damage Due to Untimely
Rain in Kerala
• The untimely rain in Kerala, which hit the entire region
since March 14, 2008 has caused crop damage and
flooding.
•
It is estimated that farmers could not harvest paddy
worth about Rs. 128 crores (1280 million rupees) due to
unexpected flooding in the Kuttanad fields.extending to
2000 hectares which is quite unusual with the normal
summer rain.
• Experts suggest that this untimely rain
• is a clear evidence of climate change.
Thermo-sensitive crops
• The thermo-sensitive crops like black
pepper, cardamom, tea, coffee and cocoa
will be badly affected as temperature
range (the difference between maximum
and minimum temperatures) is likely to
increase and rainfall is likely to decline
Pepper output likely to fall in 2009
 Heavy pre-monsoon showers (and a lethal
attack by wasps) may hit pepper
production in Kerala, the main producer of
the commodity in India.
 The industry estimates that production in
fiscal 2009 would be 40,000-45,000
tonnes compared with the 50,000 tonnes
produced last year(2008).
Production declines
Increase in maximum temperature of 1-3° C
during summer 2004 adversely affected
thermo-sensitive crops like black pepper
and cocoa in Kerala (Rao et al.,2008).
Crops affected
• The prolonged wet spell in kharif
2007(summer crop) and unusual rains in
2008 devastated the paddy production to a
large extent in kerala.
• Records show that almost all the
plantation crops suffered to a great extent
in 1983 and 2004 due to disastrous
summer droughts
Shift from foodgrain crops
• A clear shift was noticed from foodgrain crops
(Paddy) to non-foodgrain crops in Kerala over a
period of time(1952-2008).
• Increase in area under coconut, arecanut,
banana, black pepper and rubber was noticed at
the cost of phenomenal decline in rice area.
• One major reason was frequent floods in
monsoon season and droughts during
• summer season, apart from various other
reasons
Cashew production declines
• Though Kerala stood first in cashew
production a decade ago, at present it
occupies only fourth position and likely to
go down further.
• It was due to steady decline in cashew
area and also occurrence of weather
aberrations during the reproductive phase
of cashew (Rao et al.,2008).
Climate change hits mango
production
• Nearly 2,500 farmers in Muthalamada
grama panchayat in Palakkad district are
engaged in mango farming on an acreage
of 4,000 hectares. The annual production
is 35,000 tonnes of high quality mangoes
such as Alphonso, Malgova, Sindhooram,
Kalapadi, Banganapilly, etc.
•
MANGO
•Climate change and unseasonal rain in November and January
• over the last two years(2009 and 2010) have dampened the
•prospects of mango farmers in Muthalamada, known for its
•early mango harvest and large-scale export of the fruit.
•Late flowering of the fruit and the resultant delay in harvest
•has hit the annual export market.
•Muthalamada mangoes fetch a high price in the international
•fruit market mainly on account of early availability,from January.
Climate change is affecting the
growth of fruits in Kerala.
• Kanthalloor in Idukky district, the only winter fruitgrowing centre of Kerala, bordering Tamil Nadu, is
experiencing unprecedented weather changes.
• Apple, strawberry, orange, cherimoya, plum, guava,
gooseberry, peach and passion fruit… The fruit bowl of
the hill station is rich and diverse.
• The variations in weather-the rain patterns have
changed and there is unprecedented heat( temperature
rise)
• The flowering season of apple and many other fruit trees
has changed. Apple trees used to bloom in February,
indicating the beginning of spring. Now it is advanced.
• All have badly impacted on the quantity of fruit
production.
Coastal:Coconut
• As per INCCA report(2010), yields of
coconut are projected to increase in the west
coast of India (includes kerala) by up to 30% due
to temperature increase.
• Increase in coconut yield IN THE WEST
COAST may be mainly attributed to projected
increase in rainfall (~10%) and relatively less
increase in temperatures, apart from CO2
fertilization benefits
Effect on small pelagic fishes
• The oil sardine Sardinella longiceps and
the Indian mackerel Rastrelliger kanagurta
are tropical coastal and small pelagic fish,
forming massive fisheries (21% of marine
fish catch of India).
Distribution in Malabar coast
• The oil sardines, were known for their
restricted distribution in Malabar coast
(kerala)14degreeN along the southwest
coast of India where the annual average
sea surface temperature ranges from 27 to
29oC.
Distribution to North
Until 1985, almost the entire catch of oil sardine was from the
Malabar coast. In the last two decades, however, the catches from
north beyond kerala are consistently increasing, contributing about
15% to the all-India oil sardine catch in the year 2006
(Vivekanandan et al., 2009).
The surface waters of the Indian seas are warming by 0.04oC per
decade, and the warmer waters (27-28.5oC) is expanding to
latitudes north of 14oN, enabling the oil sardine to extend their
distributional range to northern latitudes (Maharashtra and Gujarat)
Distribution to southeast
• Another notable feature is the extension of oil
sardine distribution to the east coast of India as
well.
• Until the mid-1980s, the oil sardine did not form
fisheries along the southeast coast. In the
1990s, oil sardine emerged as a major fishery
along the southeast coast
Warming is beneficial
• It is also found that the catches from the
Malabar upwelling zone have not
decreased, indicating distributional
extension and not a distributional shift.
• These observations indicate that the
abundance of oil sardine has increased
over the decades, ie. the current warming
is beneficial to herbivorous small pelagics
Indian mackerel
• Compared to the oil sardine, the Indian mackerel
Rastrelliger kanagurta had wider distribution along the
Indian coast, but the catches and abundance were
predominantly along the southwest coast.
• Statistics showed that the mackerel catch in the south
east coast increased from10.6% of all India mackerel
catch(1961-76) to 23.2%(1997-06)
• It is indicative of extension of mackerel to northern
boundaries
Mackerels opt north and vertical
extension
• Fish catch statistics show that the Indian
mackerel, in addition to extension of northern
boundaries, are found to descend to deeper
waters in the last two decades
• The mackerels are expanding the boundary of
distribution to depths as they are able to
advantageously make use of increasing
temperature in the sub-surface waters. It is a
vertical extension of distribution, and not a
distributional shift.
Global sea level rise
• Globally, sea level is expected to continue to rise
over the next several decades. During 2000 to
2020 the rate of thermal expansion is projected
to be 1.3 ± 0.7mm/year
• In the absence of the availability of regional
projections, for the 2030s, global projections can
be used as a first approximation of sea-level
rise along the Indian coasts in the next few
decades.
Sea-level rise
• Global sea-level change results mainly from two
processes, mostly related to recent climate
change, that alter the volume of water in the
global ocean through
• a) thermal expansion and
• b) the exchange of water between oceans and
other reservoirs (glaciers and ice caps, ice
sheets, other land water reservoirs, including
through anthropogenic change in land hydrology
and the atmosphere).
Sea level rise by 1.3 mm\year
• Observations based on tide gauge
measurements along the Indian coast, for
a period of 20 years and more for which
significantly consistent data is available
indicate that
• the sea level along the Indian coast has
been rising at the rate of about1.3mm/year
on an average.
Sea level rise in Kochi (Kerala)
• The mean sea level rise trends in Kochi
(kerala), based on 54 years of available
data, is 1.75mm per year
Inundation of coastal areas
• Estimation of inundation of coastal areas due to
sea level rise was made for one location (Kochi)
along the west coast of India.
• The estimate shows that the inundation area will
be about 169 km2 of the coastal region
surrounding Kochi for a 1.0 m rise in sea level
• .Since Kochi region covers the backwaters, a lot
of inland areas far from the coast, but adjacent
to the tidal creeks, backwaters and lakes will be
inundated. This causes considerable increase in
the total area of inundation
Projected coastal inundation
due to sea- level rise
Coastal inundation (red in colour) map of Kochi region for a 1.0 m sea-level rise
Salinity intrusion
• The potential impacts of global climate
change in coastal Kerala are salinity
intrusion into aquifers and rise in salinity of
wetlands (Thrivikramaji,2008)
• Studies indicate that fall in rainfall and sea
level rise, along with other factors have
resulted in salinity intrusion affecting
ground water resources in the coastal
districts of the state.
Salinity in coastal aquifers
• It has also been observed that over exploitation of
ground water in certain stretches of kerala coast has
contributed to the entry of salinity into the coastal
aquifers from the sea.
• Though this tendency is mainly observed during the
summer months, when recharge is partially zero, there is
a possibility for aggravation of the problem due to
increase in withdrawal rate to cater to the requirements
of dense coastal population.
• Further aggravation is possible due to low rainfall, sea
level rise and other climate change impacts
Sunstroke\Heat stroke (?)Reported
• Sunstroke\Heat stroke has been reported from places
like Palakkad in kerala in March2010 and during
previous years:
• In the first week of March2010, temperatures across all
districts in Kerala have risen to an unprecedented high.
(Palakkad it reached
41degree celsius )
• Due to the heat, 10 people from the northern districts of
Palakkad, Kannur and Thrissur suffered severe burn
injuries and were hospitalised for emergency first aid
care.
Sunstroke\Heat stroke
• Sunstroke is a form of hyperthermia, an
abnormally elevated body temperature with
accompanying physical and neurological
symptoms, resulting from exposure to high
temperature
•
Sunburn
• It is literally a burn on your skin. It is a burn from
UV radiation. The consequence of this burn is
inflammation of the skin-reddening of skin with
some blisters. Skin damage and loss may take
place.
Malaria
• Malaria is a climate-sensitive disease and its
transmission dynamics are greatly affected by
climatic conditions.
• The development of the parasite takes place in a
mosquito .Being a cold-blooded creature, the
mosquito is sensitive to climatic conditions such
as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and
wind velocity. There is evidence of increasing
malaria prevalence throughout India
Malaria in kerala
• Malaria, which made a comeback in Kerala in Thrissur
district. In a district, so far 82 cases of Malaria have been
reported this year (July 2010,The Hindu).Last year, 154
instances of Malaria attack were reported.
•
• Of the 82 cases this year, 77 cases were due to
plasmodium vivax infection; one due to plasmodium
falciparum and four due to mixed infections.
• It is reported that Malaria cases identified in the district
were among migrant labourers, mainly from north Indian
States of Orissa, Bihar and West Bengal.
Chikungunya
• Chikungunya in Kerala is due to climate
change(WHO)
• Chikungunya is a viral disease that spreads
through the bite of infected mosquitoes. It is
characterised by severe, sometimes persistent
joint pain, as well as fever and rash.
CC effect on chikungunya
• There was chikungunya outbreak in Kerala during 2006 and 2007.
In these two years, over 100 people died, while more than 100,000
were affected.
•
• Aedes aegypti
•
Chikungunya virus
Window period extends
• Due to change in climate, it becomes conducive
for mosquitoes to spread to new areas and
affect people.
• The window period (the interval that elapses
between infection or inoculation with a pathogen
and the onset of symptoms or of detectability of
infection by laboratory testing) of disease
transmission through mosquitoes would
increase due to climate change. (WHO,2008)
CONCLUSION
• Kerala has started witnessing the climate
change and its impacts on various
geographic regions and economic sectors.
These are quite crucial.
• In order to meet these challenges, suitable
mitigation and adaptation measures are to
be undertaken