Transcript Climate change projections and adaptation

Welcome to the
‘Climate change and your business’
workshop
Programme for the evening
Start 6pm
• Short Film – ‘Climate change – Changing Business’
• Short talk - A recap on actual climate variability in the Park over the
last 20 years
• Group discussion : how does current climatic variability impact on
your current business activities?
• Short talk - Future climate change scenarios for the Park
• Group discussion : how may future climatic impacts affect your
business?
• A very short talk – Adaptation in the national and regional context
• Group discussion : can you adapt? What are the issues,
opportunities and barriers for you?
• What next?
Approximate end 7.30pm
The Climate in the Highlands of
Scotland
John McClatchey
Environmental Research Institute
The climate from year to year varies considerably.
For example the lowest temperature ever recorded in the
UK (-27.2oC) has been equalled three times, twice at
Braemar 11 February 1895 and 10 January 1982 and
once at Altnahara 20 December 1995.
January 1982 was actually a very unusual month. The
first half of the month was unusually cold (about 4 deg C
below average) but the second half of the month was
unusually mild (over 4 deg C above average) – it is
therefore recorded as close to an average month –
something it was most certainly not!
Therefore although climate warming was already
apparent in the 1980s and 1990s, it is still possible to
observe very low temperatures on a few occasions.
The climate from year to year varies considerably.
This year has yet again demonstrated the great
variability of the weather from year to year with heavy
snowfall and a low of -22.3oC recorded at Altnaharra on
8 January 2010.
In the 1980s, temperatures below -20oC were recorded
in 1982, 1984, 1985 and 1987 in the Spey Valley.
Therefore although climate warming was already
apparent in the 1980s and 1990s, it is still possible to
observe very low temperatures on a few occasions.
Temperatures at Inverness showing how there is a wide range of extreme values
This show a typical distribution of rainfall through the year - note the
April and May minimum. In some rivers the run-off is maintained in April
due to snowmelt.
As well as temperature variations from year to year, there is
a substantial variation across the Scottish Highlands.
The Eastern Highlands are warmer in summer but colder in
winter than the Western Highlands
The most obvious differences in precipitation totals.
On the high ground in some parts of the Western Highlands the
annual precipitation totals increase by about 4.5 mm/m i.e. 4500
mm over 1000m. This means precipitation totals of in excess of
5.5 metres per year are possible.
The increase of precipitation with altitude is much less in the
Eastern Highlands perhaps only increasing by 1000 mm over
1000m.
Periods of prolonged rainfall can lead to widespread
flooding, especially in winter and early spring when soils
are usually near saturation and snowmelt can be a
contributing factor.
An example was 5-6 February 1989, when prolonged
rainfall occurred over the western Highlands including the
headwaters of rivers such as the Ness and Spey.
This, combined with high tides, led to considerable flooding
in the Inverness area and the destruction of a railway
bridge over the River Ness that had stood since 1862.
In a 48 hour period over 200 mm of rain fell, with a new
Scottish record for a 2-day total of 306 mm at Kinloch
Hourn.
Group discussion questions:
1. How has current climatic variability impacted on your
current business activities?
2. How do you cope with these impacts on a day to day
basis?
3. What climate information do you currently use to
help you plan your business activities? What other
information would help you?
Discussion time 15 mins
Climate change projections and
adaptation
John McClatchey
Environmental Research Institute
Typical mountain scene in June the 1960s to 1980s
Coire an t-Sneachda, Cairngorm, mid-June
Key Findings for N Scotland High emissions scenario 2020’s
Increase in winter mean temperature
+ 1ºC (0.1º – 2.0º)
Increase in summer mean temperature + 1.2ºC (0.5º – 2.1º)
These changes are like moving south to N or central England
Increase in annual mean precipitation +1% (-6% to +5%
Increase in winter mean precipitation
+4% (-5% to +14%)
Decrease in summer mean precipitation -2% (-12% to +8%)
This could mean more winter flooding
Key findings for North Scotland, 2050s
High emissions scenario
Increase in winter mean temperature +1.8ºC (0.7 - 3.0ºC)
Increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC (0.9 - 3.9ºC)
This would be like moving south to S England or Brittany
Increase in winter mean precipitation is 13% (3% to 26%)
Decrease in summer mean precipitation -10% (-24% to 3%)
This could lead to a large increase in winter flooding and
more severe low river flows and droughts in summer
What do these changes mean for the National Park?
For example:
a) Higher winter precipitation could mean more frequent
winter floods
b) Higher temperatures could mean less winter snowfall
c) Drier summers could mean drying out of some peaty areas
and reduced river flows
d) Could periods of heavy rainfall in winter become more
frequent? (the greatest 5 minute to 24 rainfall totals are
typically found in England in summer but the largest 24 hour
total in Scotland occurred in winter)
Change in mean temperature (high emissions scenario)
2020s
2050s
Summer precipitation changes high emissions scenario (%)
2020’s
2050’s
2080’s
Winter precipitation changes high emissions scenario (%)
2020’s
2050’s
2080’s
The future scene in the mountains in June?
Coire an t-Sneachda, Cairngorm, mid-June
Group discussion questions:
1. What are the likely direct and indirect
impacts of climate change on your
businesses activities?
2. Are there opportunities as well as negative
impacts?
3. Is this level of information useful to you? - if
not what is needed to help you identify
impacts?
Discussion time 15 mins
Climate change adaptation
Ailsa Villegas
Sustainable Development Officer,
Highland Council
The strategic aim of the
Scottish Government Climate Adaptation
Framework is:
“To increase Scotland’s resilience to the impacts
of climate change through its people, and the
natural and economic systems on which they
depend”
The Scottish Government hope to achieve this
through supporting the following activities:
 Improve the understanding of the consequences
of a changing climate, and both the challenges
and opportunities it presents;
 Equip stakeholders with the skills and tools
needed to adapt to a changing climate; and
 Integrate climate change adaptation into public
policy and regulation.
Highland Council Adaptation Action:
• Council Programme
“Produce and implement a climate change strategy for the
Highlands which will reduce our impact on the environment and
adapt our services to cope with the impact of climate change”
• Single Outcome Agreement
“All in Highland have a duty and responsibility to take action to both
mitigate and adapt to climate change, and to promote the
sustainable development and well being of our local communities.”
• Adaptation Strategy for Highland.
• Actions to build resilience to the threats.
• Develop understanding of how climate change will impact on our
communities.
• Develop potential opportunities.
Other tourism sector adaptation
activity in Clim-ATIC
1. Future tourism prospects for Finnish Lapland
•
Strategic tourism plans & adaption: assess
tourism product’ s abilities to adapt &
provide adaptation guidance to sector
2. ‘Destination Åre’ – adaptation to future travel patterns
•
Developing Åre into a destination where
tourists are less dependent on the car
3. Tourism huts and education, Greenland
•
•
Designing prototypes for zero footprint accommodation huts
Climate change tourism – educating locals and visitors
Group discussion questions:
1. Should you, and can you, prepare for, and
adapt to the projected impacts?
2. What will help you to prepare and adapt
better –
•
policy, funding, regulation information,
examples/case studies, training, study tours,
professional advice etc.
Discussion time 15 mins