Transcript Managing the SAN MIGUEL HABITAT MANAGEMENT AREA and CIP

Climate Informed Management &
Monitoring
Toward Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation
into DoD INRMPs in southern California
Carolyn Enquist, DOI Southwest Climate Science Center
Dawn M. Lawson, SPAWAR SSC Pacific
Rob Wolf, Tierra Data Inc.
Christy Wolf, Naval Weapons Station Detachment Fallbrook
NMFWA 12 March 2015
DoD Guidance
•
DoDI 4715.03 (dtd 2011) Natural Resources Conservation
Program Instruction (Enclosure 3)
All DoD components shall…. utilize existing tools to assess the potential
impacts of climate change…take steps to implement adaptive
management to ensure the long-term sustainability of those resources.
•
DoDM 4715.03 (dtd 2013) INRMP implementation manual (Enclosure 8)
Directs installations to proactively identify the likely effects of
climate change to adapt and maintain cost effective programs
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Guidance
DoD Guidance
DoD 2014 Climate Adaptation Road
Map
“Our first step in planning ….. is to
identify the effects of climate change on
DoD with tangible and specific metrics
using the best available science.”
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Guidance
NR Manager’s
Plates Are Full
• Military Readiness
• Threatened & Endangered Species
• Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Natural Resource Management
The Challenge
Integrate Climate Change Adaptation into the natural
resources management program in a practical way that
supports:
• climate informed decisions
• programs addressing existing threats & requirements.
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
The Challenge
Case Study:
Naval Weapons Station Det. Fallbrook
U.S. Navy photo by MC1 Eli J. Medellin
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
General Conservation Management--DoD Instruction 4715.3
Step 1
Assess Military
Mission
Step 2
Prepare detailed
inventory of resources
Step 3
Analyze and assess risk
to the resources
Step 3
Reanalyze
risk
Step 2
Reassess detailed
inventory of resources
Step 5
Implement
management plan
Step 6
Monitor and assess
results
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Step 4
Prepare management
plan
Step 7
Conduct needs
assessment survey
Step 8
Adjust program, as
necessary
Adaptive Management
Climate-Informed Adaptive Management
Step 1
Assess Military
Mission
1b. Define objectives
2. Assess impacts
3. Review objectives in
context of impacts
4. Identify actions
5. Prioritize actions
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Adaptive Management
Key Strategies Identified
1. Conduct targeted herbicide applications for
control or eradication of exotics.
2. Identify refugial habitat for target species
3. Conduct targeted grazing to reduce the biomass of
annual exotics & wildfire threat to target spp
habitat.
4. Work with fire department to develop presuppression & suppression actions for refugia.
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Key Strategies
High priority next step:
Develop a strategic “Climate-Informed” Monitoring
plan as a key adaptation action…
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Next Step
What is Climate-Informed Monitoring (CIM)?
CIM is a process to evaluate and optimize existing efforts
relative to climate-informed management goals & objectives;
identify gaps & opportunities
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Process
Case Study:
Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Workshop Goal
To develop methods and a process
• for evaluating, adjusting, and optimizing
existing monitoring efforts
• to ensure robust information for making
climate-informed management decisions
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Purpose
Step 7. Track action
effectiveness &
ecological response via
monitoring
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Adaptive Management
“Unpacking”
monitoring
d. Optimize
strategies
Tracking change
and strategy
effectiveness
Future Regional
Climate
Scenarios
c. Adjust or
modify monitoring
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
a. Review monitoring
efforts relative to
management goals
b. Align goals with
relevant climateecological impacts &
indicators
Adaptive Management
Existing
Monitoring
Effort
Fuel Moisture
Sampling
Ecological Impact
Indicators
Existing
Monitoring
Variable(s)
Climate Informed Monitoring
Approach
Existing
Monitoring
Effort
Ecological Impact
• Fog could decline
Increase in shrub
seedling mortality
• Decrease in shrub
seed production &
survival
Fuel Moisture
Sampling
• Extended drought
short-term changes in
dead fuel load from
die-back
• Exacerbated drought
stress
• Changes in phenology
Indicators
Existing
Monitoring
Variable(s)
Climate Informed Monitoring
Approach
Existing
Monitoring
Effort
Ecological Impact
• Fog could decline
Increase in shrub
seedling mortality
• Decrease in shrub
seed production &
survival
Fuel Moisture
Sampling
• Extended drought
short-term changes in
dead fuel load from
die-back
• Exacerbated drought
stress
• Changes in phenology
Indicators
RAWS climate
data
Phenology
(green up and
brown down)
Existing
Monitoring
Variable(s)
Fuel moisture (live
& dead ARTCAL &
MALLAU)
Monitor on a
weekly basis to
compute a Fire
Danger Rating
Climate Informed Monitoring
Approach
Existing
Monitoring
Effort
Ecological Impact
• Fog could decline
Increase in shrub
seedling mortality
• Decrease in shrub
seed production &
survival
Fuel Moisture
Sampling
• Extended drought
short-term changes in
dead fuel load from
die-back
• Exacerbated drought
stress
• Changes in phenology
Indicators
RAWS climate
data
Phenology
(green up and
brown down)
Existing
Monitoring
Variable(s)
Climate Informed Monitoring
Approach
Fuel moisture (live Continue to:
& dead ARTCAL &
 Continue to monitor year
MALLAU)
Monitor on a
weekly basis to
compute a Fire
Danger Rating
round
Modify by:
 Add fuels phenology
 Add Soil Moisture to
understand moisture stress
 Utilizing remote-sensed cloud
imagery (GOES) to characterize
spatial structure of radiation
(solar)
Management Implications of
Ecological Impact:
 Consider changing window for
management fuels treatments
Where do we go from here?
• Implementation of some of the identified priorities
on Camp Pendleton & Detachment Fallbrook while
developing larger strategic approach.
• Opportunities to work across boundaries
• Other DoD installations
• Regional partnerships—build on existing through
fire and weed management agreements
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
Next steps
Interactive Discussion
The next session is an interactive discussion
to get your feedback on applicability,
opportunities and barriers for CIM on
installations you are familiar with.
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring
“Adapt, improvise, and overcome.”
─ T.C. Cummings
Climate Informed Management & Monitoring