Transcript Global Climate Change in Florida?

Tackling Climate Change in Florida and the
Southeast
Climate Prediction and Assessment
Science Workshop
March 4-7, 2008
Chapel Hill, NC
David F. Zierden, Melissa Griffin, and J. J.
O’Brien
Florida State Climatologist
Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction
Studies
The Florida State University
What is a State Climatologist?
• Originally a NOAA program until 1973
• Most states made it a faculty appointment at the land grant
university, title transferred to FSU after a number of years
• Appointed by the University President
• MOU with partners at NOAA NWS and NCDC
• Office certified by the American Association of State Climatologists
• Active partner in the Southeast Climate Consortium
Provide climate services, data, research, and outreach
on climate matters to the state of Florida
Southeast Climate Consortium
“Facilitating the effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture,
forestry, and water resources in the the Southeast U.S.”
Stakeholder involvement and
responding to needs has always been
key.
Growing interest in climate change
issues:
• IPCC 4 and Al Gore
• New administration in Florida
• Changing markets - biofuels and
ethanol production
• Carbon credits and markets
• Sustainability
Where do I stand on global warming?
ENSO - Based Forecasts
El Nino Composite
Feb. 2007
La Nina Composite
Feb. 2008
Sources for Local Climate Change Information
Florida Government:
• www.floridaclimatechange.com
• www.myfloridaclimate.com
Non-governmental organizations:
• NRDC - Florida Climate Alliance (Union of
Concerned Scientist)
• Environment Florida
• Center for Science and Public Policy (Texas,
North Carolina, Georgia, etc)
• Various websites and blogs (climate science,
climate audit, etc.)
No information:
• NOAA CPC, NWS
• Southeast Climate Consortium
• State Climate Office
SECC Climate Change “Fact Sheets”
Objectives:
• FOX News - fair and balanced
• Work within IPCC framework
• Focus on local issues, trends,
and variability
• Stress uncertainties, both in
analysis of past climate and
future possibilities
Fact Sheets in draft:
• Climate Change Basics
• Historical trends
• Climate Change and Agriculture
• Adaptation and Mitigation
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
“Climate Change” versus “Global Warming”
Climate change is ongoing and has many causes, both natural and man-made.
Natural causes:
• Changes in solar intensity
• Eccentricity in the earth’s orbit and “wobbles”
• Vegetation, albedo changes
• Volcanic eruptions
• Coupled ocean/atmospheric cycles
Man-made causes:
• Urbanization
• Land use changes (irrigation of semi-arid areas, draining wetlands)
• Aerosols
• Greenhouse gases
“Global warming” specifically refers to a general warming of the planet due the anthropogenic
increase in greenhouses gases.
Unfortunately, “climate change” is now misconstrued as the same as “global warming.”
Modern Day Temperatures
“Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising global
average sea level.”
- IPCC 4
Southeast Temperature Trends
74
Ann GA
Ann AL
Ann F L
3-State Av g
Annual Average Temperature
AL, FL, GA and all three
72
70
°F
68
66
64
62
60
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Year
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Rural Weather Station
Town is located to the northeast of Eglin
AFB, a large expanse of undeveloped
forests.
Surrounding countryside consists of
pastures, farmland, and pine forests.
Station located at Showel Farms, 3
miles to the east of the city.
Walton County population is very low at
around 40,000.
USHCN station (unadjusted data)
Rural Weather Station
Urbanization
• Station located at Page Field near
downtown Fort Myers.
• The city of Fort Myers has
experienced tremendous urban
sprawl in the last 40 years.
• Lee county population has
ballooned from 60,000 to over a
half million in the last 40 years.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)
Urbanization
Land Use Change
Small Farming community near the
southern
shore
of
Lake
Okeechobee.
Station located 2.5 miles south of town
at the Agriculture Experiment
Station.
Relatively stable population.
USHCN station (unadjusted data)
Data record SHOULD be reflective of
predominant climate trends.
Land Use Change
Land Use Change
Land cover maps of Florida
from the pre-1900’s and from
1993 show the area south of
Okeechobee now surrounded by
irrigated sugar cane fields.
Mesoscale modeling has shown
large summertime temperature
differences in the area from
differences in land use (Marshall,
et al., 2004).
Temperature difference in degrees C
Impact Freezes of the last century
Freeze Date
*Dec 1894
Feb 1899
Dec 1934
Jan 1940
*Dec 1962
Jan 1977
Jan 1981
*Dec 1983
Jan 1985
*Dec 1989
Jan 1997
* High Impact
ENSO State
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
El Nino
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Temperature Extremes
Hurricanes and Global Warming?
Emanuel (Nature, 2005) –
Hurricane power has increased in
recent decades due warmer sea
surface temperatures part to
global warming
Webster, et al. (Science, 2005) –
The number of category 4 and 5
hurricanes have doubled in the
last 30 years, due to global
warming.
“Over the long term the effects of
changes in society dwarf the effects of
any projected changes in tropical
cyclones…”
“…claims of linkages between global
warming and hurricane impacts are
premature…”
- Pielke, et. al., 2005
“Thus large, long-term ‘trends’ in tropical
cyclone
frequency
are
primarily
manifestations of increased monitoring
capabilities and likely not related to any
real change in the climate in which they
develop.”
- Landsea, 2007
Historic sea level rise
• Estimates of sea level rise
around 2 mm/yr (8.5 inches).
• Satellite measurements
(altimeters) since 1992 indicate
a rise of around 3mm/yr.
• IPCC third assessment report
stated "No significant
acceleration in the rate of sea
level rise during the 20th century
has been detected."
• IPCC 4 estimates SLR between
8 and 24 inches by 2100.
Uncertain Future
IPCC Projections
Poor science or practices:
• Projecting changes in global average
temperature on local or regional climate
• Downscaling IPCC scenarios (or other
GCM output) as input for regional
physical or biological systems.
Better approaches:
• Vulnerability or risk assessments
• Sensitivity studies
• Adaptation strategies
• Proposed Center of Excellence for
Climate and Society
Global Warming “Myths”
“Throw out the record books, because
global warming is raising temperatures in
Florida and across the country,”
- Environment Florida
"In low-lying areas, anticipated sea-level
rise could force water to flow horizontally
as much as 400 feet or more inland-flooding shoreline homes and hotels and
eroding Florida's famous beaches,"
- NRDC
“The Union of Concerned Scientists
predicts
a
threeto
10-degree
Fahrenheit rise in winter low and
summer high temperatures for Florida as
a whole. Northern Florida, the group
says, will suffer the most from loss of soil
moisture.”
The End
For more information, visit our websites:
COAPS: www.coaps.fsu.edu
Florida Climate Center: www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center
AgClimate : www.agclimate.org