Transcript Slide 1

How is Climate Change
impacting British Columbia’s
Managed Forests?
Considerations for stakeholders in the Okanagan
that are adapting forest management
to climate change
Kristine Weese
Resource Practices Branch
Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
Overview
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Context: climate change adaptation in BC
FLNR science and policy efforts to date
Projected impacts to forest ecosystems
Management issues & best practices
Barriers to adaptation
Key messages for Okanagan stakeholders
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Climate Change in BC
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Climate Change Adaptation in BC
ADM, Resource Stewardship
Chief Forester
MFLNRO
Climate Change
Adaptation
Steering Committee
Competitiveness
& Innovation
Research
COP
Resource
Practices
Branch
Tree
Improvement
Branch
Forest Analysis
& Inventory
Branch
Wildfire Mgmt
Program
Range
Branch
Ministry
of
Environment
Ministries – MFLRNO (lead), Min of Environment
Key initiatives –
• Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative (2006-12)
• Forest Stewardship Action Plan for CC Adaptation (2012→)
Policy lever – primarily Forest and Range Practices Act
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Research Initiatives
• High resolution spatial climate data
• Modelling climate effects on trees, grasslands,
disturbance, hydrology, biodiversity & wildlife
• Risk assessment & decision-support tools
• Regional vulnerability assessments
• Climate change monitoring strategy
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PROVINCE-WIDE
FFESC PROJECTS DISTRIB
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Wiensczyk FRX
Disturbance decision-support
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Redding FRX
Watershed science synthesis
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Spittlehouse Govt
High-resolution climate data
COASTAL
1, 13 & 14
province-wide
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Brinkman-CTR
Northwest Skeena adaptation
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deMontigny Govt
Red alder adaptation strategy
SOUTHERN INTERIOR
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5?
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3&10
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Fraser TRU
Climate change & rangelands
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Holt - Veridian
West Kootenay adaptation
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Innes UBC
Southern Selkirks resiliency
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Nelson UBC
Kamloops future forests
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Winkler Govt
Okanagan water supplies
CENTRAL INTERIOR
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Chan-McLeod UBC
Quesnel TSA adaptation
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Coxson UNBC
Inland rainforests
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DeLong Govt/UNBC
Forest ecosystem risk analysis
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Krcmar UBC
Uncertainty in adaptation
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Morgan BVRC
Multi-scale vulnerability
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Summerville UNBC
Community planning
Policy Initiatives
Topic
Policy guidance
Policy and Extension Initiatives
Climate-based seed transfer
Tree species selection and stocking
[FRPA review]
Strategic planning Type 4 silviculture strategies
[Review of NRS planning initiatives]
Monitoring
Cumulative effects assessment framework
Integrated NRS monitoring framework
Building capacity Regional adaptation workshops
Regional extension notes
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Climate change in BC
• Climate change is underway
• Predicted to accelerate over this century:
– Estimates: 1.8 to 4.0° temp increase
– Annual precipitation increase 6%
– Decrease in snowpack
• More extreme weather coming:
– Heat waves, heavy precipitation events
– Southern BC: more drought
– Coast & mountains: more rain storms, wind
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Thompson-Okanagan
Climate Variable*
Season
Average Change
Mean temp
Precipitation
Annual
Annual
Summer
Winter
+1.8%
+6%
-9%
+7%
Snowfall
Winter
Spring
Annual
Annual
-11%
-55%
+319 degree days
+24 days
Growing degree days
Frost free days
*By 2050s
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Impacts: Hydrology
Winter
Summer
Storm impacts
Streamflow
Temp 
Temp 
Frequency & magnitude
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Snowmelt  hybrid
rain/snow driven
Precipitation 
Precipitation  
Landslides 
Rain on snow events 
Rainfall 
Evaporative demand 
Avalanche 
Earlier freshet
Snowfall 
Plant transpiration 
Erosion 
Peak flow  
Snowpack 
Moisture deficits 
Sedimentation 
Summer low flow 
Snowline  & north
Stream/lake temp 
Big log jams 
Low flow period 
Extreme weather 
Risk to salmon 
Channel stability 
Perennial stream 
intermittent*
Log supply (long term) 
*Where snowmelt not stored in ground water
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Impacts: Disturbance
Agent
Abiotic
Wind
Snow/ice
Frost
Avalanche
Mass movement
Flooding
Low severity fire
Mixed/high severity
fire
Drought
Biotic
Vertebrates
Bark beetles
Insect defoliators
Stem and needle
disease
Root rot
Stem rot
Mistletoe
CDF
CWH
MH
ICH
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BG
PP
IDF
SBPS
MS
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SBS
ESSF
BWBS
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SWB
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Impacts: Forests, soils, wildlife
• Climate envelopes of tree species are shifting
upslope and north:
– Shrinking: higher-elevation BEC zones
– Expanding: grasslands, dry forest ecosystems, ICH
• Ecosystem shifts to warmer, drier extremes:
– Reduced soil moisture, drought-induced mortality
• Extreme weather and disturbance = loss of
habitat and increased mortality for wildlife
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Adaptation Strategies
1. Reduce risks to forest ecosystems:
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Limit cumulative effects
Promote resilience (diversity)
Assist migration (connectivity; climate-suitable tree species)
Combat detrimental change (manage disturbance)
2. Reduce risks to communities:
1. Monitor and detect undesirable changes
2. Help build community adaptive capacity
3. Help build infrastructure capacity
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Best Practices
Management issues
Example best practices
Loss or degradation of old
forest ecosystems, habitat
Maintain a connected network of reserves,
corridors, focal species habitats, WTPs
Variable, potentially reduced
timber supply
Control insects, disease & fire where possible
Preferentially harvest susceptible stands
Increased plantation failures
Regenerate with diverse stands of climaticallysuited species/stock
Reduced water quality
Limit ECA to 30 to 50% of THLB
Potential infrastructure
damage
Design roads & drainage structures to
accommodate increased peak flow
Avoid locating roads & cutblocks on unstable
terrain
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More Best Practices
Category
Example best practices
Harvesting
With warmer winters, adjust the timing of harvesting and
road works to minimize soil erosion and sedimentation
Regeneration
Underplant with other tree species/genotypes where
current regeneration or forest is at risk
Plant drought-resistant species where drier soil moisture
conditions are anticipated
Forest health
Monitor forest health and free-to-grow surveys to track
unusual occurrences so that prompt management action
may be taken
Fire
Use prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risks and forest
vulnerability to insects & disease
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Key Message
from Scientists
“With the exception of assisted migration,
adaptation strategies are elements of
ecosystem-based management that require
broader application”
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Barriers to Adaptation
Barrier Category
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Lack of knowledge 
and expertise
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Lack of planning
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capacity
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Lack of
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institutional
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support for
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change
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Lack of concern
Sub-category
regional scale
provincial scale
basic biophysical knowledge
inventory and monitoring
operational trials
existing plans
existing planning approach
economic disincentives
restrictive legislation
weak governance and limited
resources
weak professional guidance
Importance
rating
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Key Messages
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Consider new and emerging science & policy
Utilize best (ecosystem-based) practices
Experiment, monitor, adapt: operational trials
Share ideas/learning thru ‘COPs’
Advocate government action:
– Risk-sharing / enabling innovation / incentives
– Land use planning / monitoring
– Supporting community adaptation
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Contacts
• Kristine Weese, Resource Practices Branch, FLNR
– [email protected]
• FFESC web site:
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/future_forests/council/
• FLNR Climate Change Adaptation web site:
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/het/climate/actionplan/index.htm
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