Transcript Slide 1

Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact
of Climate Change in Developing Country:
Case study in Lao PDR and Thailand
Suppakorn Chinvanno
SEA START RC
Chulalongkorn University
Thailand
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Outline:
• Why this is an issue?
• Introduction to pilot research project: Assessment on Impact and
Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) AS07
• Scope of the project
• Some outlook on climate risk in South-east Asia region
• Approaches and methods in study of impact, vulnerability
and adaptation
• Issues concern engaging stakeholders involvement and
approaches taken
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Why this is an issue in developing countries: Lao PDR & Thailand?
• Stakeholder involvement is an approach driven by current trend
of research and becomes guideline from many agencies
• New approach to the region - very limited numbers of research
in this manner has been carried out in the region so far
• Most stakeholders in Lao PDR & Thailand still do not clearly
understand the study on impact of climate change
• Needs for study - countries have commitment to study impacts
of climate change and prepare adaptation plan e.g. National
Communication, National Adaptation Plan for Action, etc.
• Still an on-going, tried-and-true process
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
A pilot research:
Assessment on Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC)
• AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional
Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme
Hydrological Events due to Climate Change
• What are impacts of climate change on the
hydrological cycle and fresh water resources in
Mekong River Basin?
• What are impacts of climate & water change on
agriculture in Mekong River Basin?
• How to narrow uncertainties of climate and
hydrological models on a regional scale?
• Who is vulnerable and what to do about it?
• Timeframe: 2002 - 2004
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: 1st effort in the region
• Simulated future climate scenario 10x10km for Mekong River region
• The simulations forced by elevated atmospheric CO2 levels from
baseline of 360 ppm to 540 ppm and 720 ppm, or about 1.5 and 2 times
CCAM climate model
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Preliminary finding:
The areas that appear most
sensitive to climate change
• Southern part of Lao PDR,
receives increases in simulated
rain to around 4,500 mm/year
during the wet years, compared
with about 2,500 mm/year for
wet years during the baseline
decade.
• Most part of Cambodia will have
significantly increase in rainfall to
around 3,500 mm/year, compare
with 2,500 mm/year during the
baseline decade.
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Preliminary finding:
• Red River delta and coastal area
- Viet Nam, increase annual
rainfall of more than 5,000
mm/year, up from about 2,500
mm/year for the wet years
during the baseline decade
• Thai-Malay Peninsula – high
fluctuation between wet and dry
years in a decade.
• Even though, the rainfall
amount may not be much differ,
but there is potential of raining
season pattern change
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Potential climate risk on
Water Resource
• Significant reduction in water supply in upper
Mekong -- Yunnan, China -- but may be less
erosion
• Some water shortage in dry season in most
southern landforms due to longer and dryer
season
• Deteriorated water quality--salinity,
acidification, etc.--in some areas due to reduced
flushing during dry spells
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Potential climate risk on
rain-fed agriculture
• Rain-fed agriculture in Southern China
will be highly affected by total reduction
in precipitation
• Impact on rain-fed rice cultivation in
most part of lower Mekong region from
seasonal shift and change in rainfall
pattern
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Potential climate risk on
human settlement and
urbanization
• Potential for more intense
and longer flood lower
Mekong region, especially in
September and October
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Potential climate risk on
Natural Ecosystems
• Possibility for drying-out of some wetlands
in China
• Impact on migratory species caused by
change in water regime in wetland due to the
change in rainy season pattern. Possibility in
most of lower part of Mekong region
• Treat to wild fish stock and capture fishery,
especially in the lower part of Mekong River
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Potential impact of climate change on hydrological condition
Will water cycle in Mekong River Basin change from impact of climate change?
If yes, where will the impact be and to what extent?
Who will be vulnerable? How? Where? What to do about it?
Climate scenarios
Precipitation/ Tmax/
Tmin/ windspeed
Runoff profiles
Land use/cover scenarios
Hydrological Model
Runoff profiles
V & A Analysis
Runoff profiles
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Potential impact of climate change on rain-fed agriculture
How does future climate pattern alter crop production?
How would climate change impact different crop management schemes?
Who would be vulnerable? How and where?
Climate scenarios
Precipitation/ Tmax/
Tmin/ SRAD
Crop management scheme
Crop Model
Potential increase
of extreme event
Crop Yield Scenarios
V & A Analysis
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation
Who will vulnerable? How? What to do about it?
Climate Variability
Changes in water availability and
rice production
Climate Change Scenario
Changes in water availability
and rice production Scenarios
Vulnerability
Adaptation
Vulnerability
new
expand
Adaptation capacity
Sustainable livelihood
no
sufficient
yes
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation:
Stakeholders involvement
Engaging Local Community: Interview & focus
group with local farmer community
Thailand: Ubonratchathani province (covering approx. 600
households in 18 villages in 2 districts)
Vietnam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An Giang
provinces (Covering 32 communes in 16 districts)
Lao PDR: Savannakhet province (covering approx. 100
households in the villages of Lahakhoke, Sebungnuantay,
Dongkhamphou, and Kouthee in Songkhone district)
Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting &
workshop
Vulnerability and adaptation assessment on
impact of climate change on farmer community
Potential impact on rain-fed agriculture
Identifying vulnerable group: Local farmer community
Alternate source of income
1. Yes/stable
2. No/unstable
Resources for
production
system
Farmer
community
3. Sufficient
4. Not sufficient
Own land, sufficient fund,
sufficient manpower
5. High
6. Low
Livelihood dependency on rice
production
Rice production VS Household total expenses
Vulnerable Group
2+4+5
2+3+5
2+4+6
Non-Vulnerable Group
1+3+6
1+4+5
1+3+5
1+4+6
2+3+6
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Who will vulnerable? – Identifying vulnerable group
Key questions:
1.
Does farmer has alternate source of income?
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2.
Does farmer has adequate resources for rice production?
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3.
In case of damage in rice production, does household has any other
sufficient source of income to sustain the living?
Is it secured source?
Does household own sufficient land, capital and man-power to produce
rice at the desired quantity?
Any debt? Or need to borrow money / hire man-power to do farming?
What is the level of livelihood dependency on rice production?
•
Ratio of rice production in $ value compare to household annual
expenditure
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
What is current adaptive capacity?
Key questions:
1.
What is the current adaptation strategy?
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2.
What does farmer do when rice production damage from impact of
climate variability, e.g. flood – drought – inappropriate rainfall pattern?
Different adaptation to different level of impact?
Different adaptation to different frequency of climate variability?
What is the tolerating threshold of farmer to the damage in rice
production?
•
How damage or how often of damage in rice production will result in
different occupation of the household?
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Conducting research on impact and assessment on
vulnerability & adaptation to climate change is not
straightforward process in developing country
Issues: Engaging vulnerable group in local community, policy
maker and local research partner
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Cultural
Institutional
Technical
Operational
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Engaging Stakeholder: Policy maker
Issue:
• No agency whose mandate is to do research and policy planning on
climate change - involvement by multiple agencies
• What would be information required for future policy planning?
• Cooperation – particularly when cross country
• Priority given to the climate change issue
• More toward CDM rather than impact, vulnerability and
adaptation
• Awareness & Understanding of the method & process
• “Potential” impact from climate change is something occur too
far in the future
• Need explicit answer – lack of understanding in the multiple
scenarios
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Engaging Stakeholder: Policy maker
Approach:
• Create public awareness on the potential impact of climate change
to gain government attention
• Research focused on climate variability to trigger and justify the
effort to establish some of the mechanisms to support adaptation to
today climate variability, which in time, will be fine tuned to
adaptation to climate change
• Approach through intergovernmental agency – APN, GEF, etc.
• Keep all involved agencies informed as much as possible
• Make them aware
• Make them feel involved
• Gain their cooperation
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Engaging Stakeholder: Local farmer community
Issue:
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Communication – gap in language used to communicate
Lack of awareness on climate change
Differentiating “Climate Change” – “Climate Variability” – “Weather”
Meaning of sustainable livelihood
Response to assessment – asking sensitive questions may get
altered answer
• Priority in cooperation to the study
Stakeholders meeting in Sakon Nakorn Province, Thailand
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Engaging Stakeholder: Local farmer community
Approach:
• Local research partner – use proper language & terms
• Small group meeting – to extend understanding into leaders of the
target community prior to the assessment
• Use climate variability as foundation to assess the adaptive capacity
and vulnerability analysis
• Avoid crop season
Stakeholders meeting in Attapeu Province, Lao PDR
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Engaging Local research partner
Issue:
• Cross country research need local research partner
• Multidisciplinary research– multiple agencies involved – but lack of
cooperation
• Lack of understanding in research method – the use of scenarios
• Institutional issue
• Research institute on climate change does not exist
• University not mandate to do research
• Limited research in this field of study
• Local research partners lack know-how and understanding
Technical workshop on the study of impact of
climate change on hydrological regime for
scientists and government officials from Lao
PDR and Thailand
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Engaging Local research partner
Approach:
• Conduct series of training workshop – led by external expert
• Research exercise after workshop – divide research components
into discreet tasks for each group/involved agency
• Serious capacity building program – short & long term
• Technical workshop
• Short term fellowship
• Full degree scholarship
Technical workshop on the study of impact of
climate change on rain-fed rice production for
scientists and government officials from Lao
PDR and Thailand
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Other Issues:
• Data availability
• Data scattered in many government agencies
• Data owner is sensitive in providing data to
research team
Approach:
• Conduct series of workshop – involve all agencies
• “B-Y-O” data to use in workshop
• Analysis tool made available by organizer
• Analysis method will be taught
• Jointly conduct analysis in the workshop
• Result will be shared among all participants
• Data will never leave the room and returned to
owners
Weather data collection from field
automated data logger in Thailand
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Summary:
• Climate change study has a long way to go in these countries
• Engaging stakeholders in the developing country into the study
of climate change is still an ongoing process
• Top-down policy making practice in developing country make
policy maker neglect other stakeholders in the policy making
process
• Uncertainty in this field of study needs to be educated to all
stakeholders
• Learning to cope with climate variability = adapt to longer term
climate change
• Long term capacity building is required
Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on
Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country
Thank You