Transcript NERRS Science Collaborative: Program Overview

NERRS Science Collaborative:
Climate Change Adaptation Focus
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NERRS Science Collaborative
Webinar 2 • December 16, 2014
Special focus area:
Climate Change Adaptation Success
Susi Moser, Ph.D.
NERRS Science Collaborative Team Member
NERRS Science Collaborative
Great Interest Across the System
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NERRS Science Collaborative
Key: • Reserve represented on one of the webinars
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Great Interest from Reserves
2 webinars
57 sign-ups
86% of Reserves
6.9%
12.1%
20.7%
13.8%
5.2%
17.2%
17.2%
6.9%
Education Coordinators
Program Managers
CTP Coordinators
Research Coordinators
Stewardship Coordinators
NOAA
Univ. of Mich
Other
NERRS Science Collaborative
Overview
1. Context and Background
2. What Does Adaptation Success Look Like?
– Simple Question – Complex Answer
3.
4.
5.
6.
What Might it Mean for a Reserve?
Approach to this Focus Area
A Project Co-Designed
Q&A
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Context and Background
• Key Elements of the Science Collaborative
– Competitive grants for key research needs
• Collaborative research projects
• Science transfer projects
• Integrated assessments
– Support for needs identification, collaboration, and
end user engagement
– Evaluations
– Capacity building
– Data management
– Special focus on climate change adaptation
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Context and Background
Foundation #1
NERRS Science Collaborative
Foundation #2
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Successful Adaptation:
Key Dimensions of an Elusive Goal
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Thank You
Successful Adaptation to Climate
Change in Coastal Environments
West Coast-wide, transdisciplinary research project (2011-14)
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
5 Reasons to Think
About Adaptation Success
1. Communication and
Public Engagement
–
Communicating hope and
desirable goal to work
towards
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Defining a common vision
among diverse stakeholders
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Why Think About Adaptation Success?
2. Deliberate planning and
decision-making
NERRS Science Collaborative
–
Setting clear goals, aligning
means and ends (internal
consistency)
–
Best fit with other policy
goals (external consistency)
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Why Think About Adaptation Success?
3. Justification of
adaptation
expenditures
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Why Think About Adaptation Success?
4. Accountability/good
governance
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Why Think About Adaptation Success?
5. Support for learning
and adaptive
management
Source: SCIRO
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
And Good Reasons NOT to Think About
Success
• Political sensitivities
• Funding sensitivities
• It’s work
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
“I don’t know many churches that
have to put the tide chart on their
Web site” so people know whether
they can get to church.”
The Rev. Jennifer Slade, Norfolk, VA
Norfolk, VA
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
What Does Success Look Like?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
NERRS Science Collaborative
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Some Tough Questions
• How much can science help?
• Or is it all subjective and political?
• What is the right scale at which to consider success?
• How and how much do we integrate across sectors?
Across scales or levels of government?
• How do we address trade-offs?
• When can we declare success (or not)?
• How should we measure success?
• Who gets to say?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Dimensions of Adaptation Success
Based on review of the scientific literature
Adaptation
Decision-Making
Adaptation
Process
• Conduct a “good”
assessment and
planning process
• Continually monitor
for adaptation needs
• Select a “good”
adaptation option
• Make a “good”
adaptation decision
1st wave: 1990s-early 2000s
NERRS Science Collaborative
Adaptation
Outcomes
• Find adaptation
outcomes to be
“good”
• Avoid maladaptation
2nd wave: since IPCC AR4
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Why Things Aren’t So Simple (cont.)
• Meaning of adaptation – What to aim for, who
to involve, which trade-offs
– “Structural interpretation”
(keep what we’ve got)
– “Vulnerability interpretation”
(create a better world for all)
– “Resilience interpretation”
(social-ecological systems thrive
for the long-term)
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
• Adaptation outcomes
– Pragmatic challenges
• Few projects set clear goals, establish
baseline
• Few projects are far enough along to be
assessed
• Few projects include monitoring and
evaluation components
– Common evaluation challenges
• Timing of assessment of effectiveness
• Establishing causality between actions >
outcomes
• Inevitable normative aspects of evaluation
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Why Things Aren’t So Simple (cont.)
• Adaptation outcomes (cont.)
– Climate change adaptation-specific challenges
• No end point; dynamic; possibility of tipping
points
• Cross-scale and cross-sector interactions
• Focus on one climate risk or multiple risks
(i.e. changing risk profile, net risk)?
• Uncertainties about future climate, other
systems, and future society’s values, risk
tolerance
• Criteria of what and for what purpose?
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Failure-to-Success Continuum
• Maladaptation
• Inadequate response
• Stabilization of a degrading situation
• Repair and recovery
• Building something better
NERRS Science Collaborative
Source: Expanding on Kasperson et al. (1995)
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
From Adaptation Actions to
Adaptation Pathways
Threshold = indicator (or set of indicators) that suggests course correction
Time to threshold
minus lead time
= when to start
working on next
adaptation
T3
T4
T2
What is “failure”?
T1
Example 1: Setback ----- Seawall -------- Higher seawall ---- (Un)managed retreat --- ?
Example 2: Restoration 1—Sediment input –Restoration 2—Upland purchase------ ?
Adaptation Pathway
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
“Success” in the Real World
• Washington State
• Oregon
• California
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Successful Adaptation to Climate
Change on the West Coast
– “Fishbowl” of case studies
– Group discussions
– In-depth exploration of issues in small
groups (process, outcomes, tradeoffs)
– Evaluation
• Synthesis
NERRS Science Collaborative
Source: all pictures by Susi Moser
• Pre-workshop interviews with adaptation
leaders (“practitioners”)
• Workshop with scientists and practitioners
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Six Key Dimensions of Adaptation Success
Adaptive Capacity
• Establish enabling conditions
•Build up social, technical, human, financial etc. capacities
Adaptation
Process
* Conduct the
assessment and
planning process
“right”
* Engage in
continual
assessment of
adaptation needs
Adaptation
DecisionMaking
•Select a “good”
adaptation
option
•Make a “good”
adaptation
decision
Adaptation
Implementation
Adaptation
Outcomes
•Successfully
implement
specific
adaptation
actions, next step
•Set up ongoing
process
•Find adaptation
outcomes to be
“good”, or
“acceptable”
•Avoid
maladaptation
Adaptation Barriers
• Identify and develop effective strategies to overcome barriers to adaptation
(institutional, motivational, political, financial, scientific etc.)
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Measuring Success – with Purpose!
Six Dimensions of Adaptation Success
Purpose
Process
Decisions
Implementation
Outcomes
Capacity
Communication/Engagement
Inclusivity,
meaningful
influence
Transparency
Progress/
actions taken
Common
vision
Facilitation,
Skill
Deliberate
planning &
decisions
Standards of
good
planning
Use of best
avail.
science
Timeliness,
decisions
made
Minimizing
negative
impacts
Consideration of
non-$
impacts
Benefit-cost
ratio, cost
effectiveness, robust
Justification of $
requests
Accountability/
Governance
Inclusivity
Transparency
Learning
Monitoring
Transparsupport/Adapti
& Evaluation
ency
Collaborative
ve mgmt.NERRS Science
Timeliness,
efficiency
Progress/
actions taken
Progress/
actions taken
Barriers
Clear
targets
Investment
in capacity
Creative
financing,
leveraging of
funds
Accomplishments,
savings,
benefits
Capacity
needed/
built
Barriers
encountered
/overcome
Targets
(not) met
No-fear
learning
culture
Incentives
for risk
taking,
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
What Might it Mean for a Reserve?
• Climate change stresses
– Exacerbating existing
stressors such as sea
level/lake level change,
inundation and flooding,
drought, and changes to
freshwater inflows
– Ocean acidification
– Shifting species
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Your climate change work
• Monitor and study the impacts of climate change
on estuaries
• Work with communities to plan for and adapt to
these changes
• Design and implement mitigation and
adaptation practices in the construction of
facilities and through stewardship projects
• Provide training and education programs to help
communities understand and adapt to
anticipated local and regional impacts
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
How will YOU know you’re succeeding?
Protected Places
Science
People
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
NERRS Working Principles
• Engage local communities and citizens to improve
stewardship of coastal resources
• Create strong partnerships to enhance the
success of Reserve programs
• Integrate research, education, and stewardship to
address complex coastal problems
• Implement best management practices at
reserves to lead by example
• Seek regional collaborations to extend the
influence of reserve programs and products.
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Approach to this Specific Focus
• Overarching NERRS-focused goal: Help reserves
– Define “success” for you
– Develop useful, impactful metrics to track progress
(along adaptation pathway)
– Learn from each other (through a multiple-site,
comparative approach)
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Approach to this Specific Focus
• Overarching broader goal
– Share lessons with regional partners, other
reserves, coastal scientists and managers faced
with similar challenges
– Contribute to national indicator system
– Contribute to broader “M&E” discussion in the
adaptation community
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Approach
• Multiple sites
• Comparative
• Involving internal and
external stakeholders
Criteria
• Geographic representation
across NERRS
• Reserves with active
adaptation efforts
• Capacity to take on effort
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Approach
Year
Work elements
PY1 2015
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PY2 2016
• Virtual and in-person check-in, refinement of indicators/metrics
• Identification and addressing of challenges
• Initial comparative analysis
Outyears
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Identification and selection of Reserve collaborators
Review and background research
Establishment of comparative framework
Reserve visit, visioning workshop, development of initial set of
indicators/metrics
Virtual and in-person check-in, refinement of indicators/metrics
Identification and addressing of challenges
Deeper comparative analysis
Concluding in-person review and stakeholder workshop
Lesson sharing
NERRS Science Collaborative
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Co-Design
• It’s got to work for you
and serve your needs!
• It should produce
results that are robust,
transferable, useful to
others
• We all have constraints
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People capacity
Time
Fit with your work plans
Money
NERRS Science Collaborative
Source: Cowell et al. (2013)
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
A Place to Start
• If you are interested:
– Appoint a contact person at your NERR with
whom I could be in contact
– Send me information about your climate change
adaptation-related work
– Internally discuss your interest and resources for
participating in this
– Early next year, let me know your interest
(reasonable date TBD based on discussion here)
NERRS Science Collaborative
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Your Questions
NERRS Science Collaborative
Co-Design
Q&A
Context
Success
The Challenge
Approach
Co-Design
Q&A
Thank you!
Susi Moser, Ph.D.
Susanne Moser Research & Consulting and
Stanford University
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.susannemoser.com
Book available from:
http://www.routledge.com/books/details/97804
15525008/
http://www.amazon.com/Successful-AdaptationClimate-Change-Changing/dp/0415525004
Acknowledgments: Max Boykoff and >40 book contributors; Amy Snover, Hannah Gosnell, Steve Adams, Lara Whitely-Binder,
Adina Abeles on project examining Successful Adaptation to Climate Change along the US West Coast; along with project funders
(NOAA, Moore Foundation. Stanford University).
NERRS Science Collaborative