Transcript Flood Hydroclimatology and Its Applications in Western

Innovative Approaches for
Addressing Floods
Katie Hirschboeck
& Kate Sammler
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Tree-Ring Day
Earth Science Week
March 29, 2010
Hirschboeck Research Themes:
Figure 15 – LL and HH water years with quantile time
series
Figure 15 – LL and HH water years with quantile time
series
High
and Low Flow
Years in Upper
Colorado & Salt-Verde Basins based on Reconstructed S
eme High and Low Flow Years in Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde BasinsExtreme
based on
Reconstructed
Streamflow*
1521-1964
< 25th and ≥ 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
< 25th and ≥ 10th Percentile
> 75th and ≤ 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
≥ 25th and ≤ 75th Percentile
≥ 25th and ≤ 75th Percentile
> 75th and ≤ 90th Percentile
↔
↔
↔
↔
1570
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
1560
1550
1600s
LL = 11
HH = 8
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
UCRB
1540
1530
1590
1520
1580
1670 = missing ring
↔
1770
1760
1750
1740
1730
1790
↔
870
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
*
860
850
840
830
1890
820
1880
810
1870
800
1860
1850
1840
1830
1820
1810
1800s
LL = 22
HH = 11
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
*
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
*
SVT
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
UCRB
1720
1780
1710
1770
1700
1760
1750
1740
1730
1720
1710
↔
↔
*
↔
1670
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
1660
1650
1640
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
1700s
LL = 13
HH = 14
SVT
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
UCRB
Tree Rings
& Drought
Hydroclimatology
1630
1690
1620
1680
1610
1670
1600
1660
1650
1640
1630
1620
1610
SVT
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
68
16
69
16↔
71
16
↔
72
67
16
16
1570
1560
1550
1540
1530
1520
(SVT)
wide rings
↔
1520 -1599
LL = 11
HH = 11
Salt -Verde -Tonto River Basin
t -Verde -Tonto River Basin
(SVT)
(UCRB)
16
65
16
64
↔
↔
↔
16
63
↔
↔
16
↔
62
↔
16
61
↔
↔
↔
16
16↔
60
↔
(UCRB)
↔
66
↔
Upper Colorado River Basin
per Colorado River Basin
↔
↔
↔
shift to narrower rings
How can I
remove these
trees?
The “HIRSCHBO” LAB
Ela Czyzowska
Ph.D. Program
Arid Lands
Resources
Sciences
Jennifer (Welti) Lee
M.S. Atmospheric Sciences
Kate Sammler
Ph.D. Program
School of
Geography
& Development
How are
climate patterns & daily
weather maps linked?
in absentia
Co-advising with
Holly Hartmann:
National Weather Service
Forecaster, Hunstville AL
Ongoing
collaboration:
Ashley Coles
Ph.D. Program
UA School of
Geography
& Development
How would I
classify THIS
flood!?
Why do people
drive into
flooded washes?
Jeannette Estes
M.S. Hydrology
& Water Resources
Volunteer:
Nazanin Babamarandi
Formerly:
Iran Meteorological
Organization
Beyond “Cuisinart” Hydrology:
Innovative Approaches for
Addressing Floods
Katie Hirschboeck
& Kate Sammler
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Tree-Ring Day
Earth Science Week
March 29, 2010
Statistically, EXTREME EVENTS are phenomena
of the Lower & Upper Tails
of Skewed Probability Distributions . . .
How can water managers better deal with events
in the “tails” of streamflow probability
distributions — both floods & droughts?
. . . By moving beyond conventional
approaches . . . .
For WESTERN WATER MANAGERS :
Tree-Ring Streamflow
Reconstructions . . .
. . . are compelling benchmarks that
aid in planning for future extreme
LOW FLOW conditions using :
-- tree-ring reconstructions
-- simulations
-- scenario-building
-- climate projection modeling
Water supply simulation
based on extreme low
flow sequences in the
paleo-record
STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION for 1330-2005
In contrast . . .
FLOOD & WATERSHED MANAGERS are far more
constrained in the ways they can incorporate
climate change information operationally.
This is due to . . . .
-- existing flood management
policy and practices
Photo by Ashley Coles
-- the extreme, short-term,
localized, and weather-based
nature of flooding . . . .
and . . .
-- inconclusive evidence for increases in
extreme flooding in the U.S. :
“ There is no evidence of widespread or
systematic increases in peak streamflows,
although there is widespread evidence of
increases occurring in annual low flows.”
Lins ( 2005)
see also: Douglas et al., 2000; Lins and Slack 2005
LAND USE CHANGES = perceived as
the more important issue
A Workshop on Global Change
and
Extreme Hydrologic Events:
Testing Conventional Wisdom
January 5, 2010 - January 6, 2010
Committee on Hydrologic Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
What’s Needed:
Information presented in an operationally useful
format for flood & watershed managers which
describes how changes in the large-scale
climatic “drivers” of hydrometeorological
extremes will affect flooding variability
in SPECIFIC WATERSHEDS
FLOOD-CAUSING DRIVERS & MECHANISMS
Meteorological &
climatological
flood-producing
mechanisms
operate at
varying temporal
and spatial
scales
Can we find out more about what drives this
history of flooding?
What does it look like when
classified hydroclimatically?
What kinds of storms produced the
biggest floods?
FLOOD HYDROCLIMATOLOGY = classifying
each flood in the record according to cause
As seen in a newspaper ad . . . .
Current practice
analyzes floods using
“CUISINART”
HYDROLOGY!
“FLOOD PROCESSOR”
With expanded feed tube
– for entering all kinds of flood data
including steel chopping, slicing
& grating blades
– for removing unique physical
characteristics, climatic
information, and outliers
plus plastic mixing blade
– to mix the populations together
Moving Beyond “Cuisinart” Hydrology . . . .
A Mixture of Flood Causes:
Data from key flood subgroups may be
better for estimating the probability and
type of extremely rare floods than a
single “100-Year Flood” calculated from
all the flood data combined!
-- Useful for defining
regions;
-- Can then be used to
estimate flow behavior
in ungaged basins
(new USGS collaboration)
FLOOD
HYDROCLIMATOLOGY:
(1) Different types of
FLOODS
Tropical
Storm -related
Winter
synoptic
(extreme )
(2) Different types of
SEASONAL FLOW
REGIMES
Winter synoptic
(moderate)
Summer
convective
Conceptual
Ecological Model
for a Southwestern
River Ecosystem
Flow regime is of central
importance in sustaining
the ecological integrity
of flowing water systems
From: Haney (2007) Southwest Hydrology
Ecosystem Services Analysis of Climate Change and
Urban Growth in the Upper Santa Cruz Watershed; the
Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model
(SCWEPM) A decision support tool to mimic ecosystem services
.
and alternative scenarios based on predictions of urban development
and climate change
Flood Hydroclimatology Database
Based on USGS “peaks-above-base” record (annual & partial series)
PURPOSE: to determine hydroclimatic context for causes of floods in
AZ watersheds
Increasingly Important
Research Needs:
Model runs to link surface
hydrology with scenariodriven atmospheric
circulation
DOWNSCALING
-- clearly communicate accuracy in
downscaled model results
-- don’t oversell the degree of precision
-- “scaling up from local data is as
important as scaling down from
globally forced regional models.”
-- regionally tailored indices may be
better than the latest “index-de-jour”
Coupled with
PROCESS-SENSITIVE
UPSCALING
Process studies at the
watershed scale to
specify climate linkages
WHAT WILL
THE FUTURE HOLD?
. . . will climatic change make
floods more extreme?
more frequent?
or will they get smaller?
more frequent?
less frequent?
(1) A Northward Shift in Winter Storm Track?
Roosevelt Dam
Jan 1993
Winter flooding
on Rillito in Tucson
(2) A Change in Frequency or Intensity
Some Important Floodof Tropical Storms?
Generating Tropical
Storms
Tropical storm
Octave Oct 1983
Rillito
July 2006
(3) A More Intense
Summer Monsoon?
THANK YOU!