Transcript COUNTDOWN TO COPENHAGEN Understanding the negotiations

COUNTDOWN TO
COPENHAGEN
Understanding the negotiations: From Kyoto
through Bali to Copenhagen and beyond
Mithika Mwenda
COORDINATOR
PAN AFRICAN CLMATE JUSTICE ALLIANCE
Tel: +254-20-4441483, 4441338/9, Cell: +254-724-403 555
Fax: +254-20-4443241/4445835
Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
• Emerged on the political agenda in the mid-1980s with
the increasing scientific evidence of human interference
in the global climate system and with growing concern
about the environment.
• The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to provide policy makers with
authoritative scientific information in 1988.
• IPCC was tasked with assessing the state of scientific
knowledge concerning climate change, evaluating its
potential environmental and socio-economic impacts,
and formulating realistic policy advice.
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
• The IPCC published its first report in 1990
concluding that the growing accumulation of
human-made greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere would “enhance the greenhouse
effect, resulting on average in an additional
warming of the Earth’s surface” by the next
century, unless measures were adopted to limit
emissions.
• The report confirmed that climate change was a
threat and called for an international treaty to
address the problem.
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
• The UN General Assembly responded by
formally launching negotiations for a framework
convention on climate change and establishing
an “Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee
(INC)” to develop the treaty.
• Negotiations to formulate an international treaty
on global climate protection began in 1991 and
resulted in the completion, by May 1992, of the
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC).
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
The UNFCCC was opened for signature
during the UN Conference on
Environment and Development (“the
Earth Summit”) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,
in June 1992, and entered into force in
March 1994.
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION
• The Convention sets an ultimate objective of
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases at safe levels.
• To achieve this objective, all countries have a
general commitment to address climate
change, adapt to its effects, and report their
actions to implement the Convention.
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
• The Convention divides countries into two
groups:
• Annex I Parties, the industrialised countries
who have historically contributed the most to
climate change, and
• Non-Annex I Parties, which include primarily the
developing countries.
• African countries belong to Non-Annex I
category, and have no obligation to cut down its
greenhouse gases.
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
• The objective could not be achieved since
there were no legally binding obligations
for any party to reduce its greenhouse
gases
• Meanwhile science continued to warn of
dire consequences if the community of
nation failed to seriously address the
increased concentration of ghg gases in
the atmosphere.
BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC
KYOTO PROTOCOL
• Required countries to take commitment to
reduce ghgs
• Agreed in Japan in 1997 during COP3
• Entered into force in 2005
• Focused on mitigation (market-based)
• Gave little priority to adaptation
• Resultant mechanisms – Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) which has not worked for
Africa and the poor
WHERE WE ARE NOW…
• Legal mandate of Kyoto expires by 2012
• There should be no vacuum
• Science is very clear – we have reached the
tipping point IPCC-AR4, 2007
• Global consensus that CC will have effects
on all efforts to reduce poverty, e.g. MDGs
• Global dialogue for a regime to succeed
Kyoto protocol which should be pro-poor,
people-driven, equitable and just
• Endless game of musical chairs – always
shifting goalposts
THE NORTH-SOUTH IMPASSE
• Divided house - a lot of suspicion in
discussions – conflicting positions
• North wants South to take commitments
• South says North has historical responsibility to
assist in adaptation, reduce ghgs, etc
• Some in South say they should be allowed to
pollute to reach the same level as North
• The civil society want a middle-ground, where
all should take responsibility but putting into
consideration their levels of development
RACING AGAINST TIME…
Parties agreed on Bali Roadmap
This is intended to build consensus on main
pillars of post-2012 climate change regime:
• Adaptation
• Mitigation
• Technology transfer and deployment
• Finance
Positive development: the roadmap has brought
adaptation at the fore of negotiations –
adaptation will find more space after 2009
NO PROGRESS IN POZNAN & BONN I, II, III
• The lack of substantive progress
overshadowed three positive process
related outcomes :
1.A commitment to shift from discussion
mode to full negotiating mode in 2009
2.A programme and schedule of talks in the
run up to Copenhagen was agreed
3.The Adaptation Fund, set up to help
poorer countries deal with climate change,
is now operational
PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS ON:
1.
A shared comprehensive equitable vision for the
negotiations
2. The adequacy of emission reductions targets for
Annex 1 countries
3. The scale and nature of the obligation of Annex 1
countries to provide adequate financial and
technological support for clean development,
avoided deforestation and adaptation in
developing countries
PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
•Want Annex I parties to make
ambitious emissions cuts (40%)
in the 2nd commitment period
•Are not responsible and should
not be subjected to international
legally binding emissions
reductions. They will try their
best but their efforts depend on
finance and technology from
developed countries
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
•Main aim is to get Annex II
parties to make deeper int’l
commitments on mitigation
•Agree to common but
differentiated
responsibilities and
resepective capabilities but
by this they mean
developing countries must
be differentiated in terms of
their obligations
PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
•Shared vision includes all
aspects of building blocks of
finance, technology, mitigation,
adaptation
•Global goal of emission
reduction is not a stand-alone
issue, but must be derived from
an equity-based approach in
which the developed countries
and developing countries
contributions are clearly
different, based on justice.
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Stressing only the longterm global goal of
emission reduction in the
shared vision as the main
outcome in Copenhagen
PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
MITIGATION: Stress that their
mitigation actions can be enhanced
subject to (Measurable, reportable and
Verifiable (MRV) only on condition and
the extent of enabling and supported
finance and technology which have to
be MRVed. Actions, not outcomes can
be MRVed.
Want maximum obligations from
developing countries; they want
mitigation actions to be
subjected to reduction
commitments
Keeping their positions on this
FINANCE & TECHNOLOGY: Concrete vague. They want to see
and adequate implementation of
developing countries actions
commitments by developed countries first & developing countries
key to unblock the impasse; issues on
should also contribute. Fear is
this should be resolved upfront.
that they eventually have little to
offer.
PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
FINANCE: A financial structure
under the UNFCCC, with certain
principles
A substantial quantum;
G77/China pushing for 0.1% of
GNP; US$200B to US$400B
Annually
Should be aid but payment
under UNFCCC
Supremacy of UNFCCC
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Don’t want new structure under the
UNFCCC, with certain principle &
prefer existing Funds; World Bank,
Bilateral Aid, etc.
KEY DATES (INTERNATIONAL)
• SEVERAL INTERNATIONAL MEETINGS IN THE
COUNTDOWN TO COPENHAGEN
• 29 March – 8 April 2009 – AWG, Bonn
• 1 - 14 June – SBSTA 30, Bonn,
• 10 August 2009 - 14 August 2009. Bonn, Germany, Informal
meetings of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP
• 22 September 2009, UN H/Q, New York, US; high-level event
on climate change for Heads of State and Government, by UN
Secretary-General
• Ad hoc Working Group for Long-term Cooperative Action
(AWG-LCA) 7 and Ad hoc Working Group for the Enhancement
of Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) 9, 28 September - 9 October,
Bangkok, Thailand
• 2 November 2009 - 6 November 2009, Barcelona, Spain. A
resumed AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP9
• 7 - 18 December 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark. UNFCCC COP
15 and Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP 5
• End of 2012 – Deadline for ratification of a new Climate deal
KEY DATES (AFRICA)
• AMCEN is leading the consolidation of a unified African position – mandated
by AU
• Has an elaborate plan of action on continental engagement
• 23 – 29 May 2009: 3rd AMCEN Session on climate change, Nairobi, Kenya
• PACJA CS meeting – 23 - 24
• 1 – 3: AU Heads of States Assembly on climate change, Sirte, Libya
• 24 August 2009; Conference of African Heads of States and Governments
on CC, shifted to Libya
• Eastern Africa Climate Equity Summit – Nairobi, Kenya, April 2009
• Southern Africa Climate Equity meeting, Johannesburg, SA, May 2009
• 1st Pre-AMCEN African CS consultative workshop, Nairobi, Kenya, 2009
• Pan African Parliamentary Climate Summit, Yaoundé, Cameroon, 25 – 27,
June 2009
• African Parliamentary Summit on Climate Change, October, Nairobi, Kenya
• 4th Special AMCEN session on CC, 19 – 21 Oct. - Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia
• 2nd African civil society consultative/strategy workshop, 16 – 18,
Oct, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
COMESA IS PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN THIS MOBILISATION
First commitment period
2009
2010
7 – 18 Dec 2009
2011
2012
28 Nov 2011 - 9 Dec 2011
26 Nov 2012 - 7 Dec 2012
8 - 19 November 2010
COP15
COP16
COP17
COP18
Copenhagen
Latin America
SA
Asia
Copenhagen deal
‘Accords’
Ratification and entry into force of Copenhagen deal
Period of capacity building for new mechanisms and modalities, mobilization of adaptation
finance, transfers of technologies and urgent action to (at least) fulfil (KP) targets by
developed countries
Second commitment period
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
COP19
COP20
COP21
COP22
COP23
Start of 3rd
commitment period
negotiations (CP3)
(2018-2022)
Review of science as
part of CP3
negotiations
End of negotiations for
CP3, including
‘Accords’
Ratification and entry into force of CP3 deal
URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS
• Consolidation of a critical mass: All
stakeholders in Africa; governments, private
sector and civil society should work together
to boost their numbers & enhance visibility
• Coalition of the willing and missionary
approach: need to convert more, particularly
influential constituencies, by creating
awareness through appropriate channels:
open air meetings, churches/mosques,
parliaments, media, youth groups, women
group, CBOs, petitions, etc
URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS
• Negotiators: Keeping a watchful eye and
tracking African negotiators in UNFCCC and
demanding report-back (accountability)
• Pressure to governments: ensuring that
negotiators are fully supported by their
governments; technically & financially
• Representation: African governments should be
fully represented; due to lack of sufficient
resources, civil society should work with
government delegations as they can use their
own resources
•
URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS
FARNPAN, OTHER STATES & NON-STATE ACTORS
• Should not be passive spectators in the debate
• How should you engage others?
• FARNPAN under ACCID is playing key role in
general stakeholder engagement at continental
& int’l level
• What strategic alliances should FARNPAN and
Southern African governments establish?
• What plans will SADC/FARNPAN play in
Copenhagen? And in Africa?
Asante sana
Kea Leboha (Lesotho)
THANK YOU!