Transcript Slide 1

REAL CLIMATE CHANGE
What you should know about
Global Warming
Presented by
Robert P. Smith, Ph.D., P.E.
Global Warming Theory
1. Global Warming is occurring
2. Main GW driver is CO2 from fossil
fuels
3. GW will cause extreme harm
Is Carbon Dioxide Bad?
• When scientists differ on an issue:
• Start with empirical evidence that
is not in dispute
What is Empirical Evidence?
• Science advances using empirical evidence
• Empirical data based upon something that happened
–
–
–
–
Careful records from observed events
Data from repeatable experiments
Accepted theories that have withstood falsification tests
May be revised or discarded with new discoveries
• Non-empirical information
–
–
–
–
–
Unproven theories, hypotheses, hunches, etc.
Short-term correlations and cherry-picked data
Computer models that do not forecast or even hindcast
Circumstantial evidence, i.e., no cause-effect
“Desktop Speculation”
IPCC and East Anglia
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
–
–
–
–
United Nations agency
“authoritative source” on global warming
Publishes Assessment Reports every 5 yrs
IPCC “data” repeatedly debunked and discredited
• East Anglia Climate Research Unit
– Principal source of climate data for IPCC
– Source of “Climategate” scandal
– Tightly linked to IPCC and other “Team” scientists
in universities and U.S. government agencies:
NASA, NOAA, Lawrence Livermore Lab, Penn State
University, etc.
“Climategate”
Illegal and unethical CRU activities
– 20+ yrs temperature data
manipulated
– Data altered to show artificial
warming
– Surface data reliability now in doubt
– Original raw data destroyed
– Illegally dodged FOI requests
– “Team” members controlled peer
review process
1999 Conditions
• 20 straight years of reported warming
• 20 straight years of CO2 increase
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas
• Vostok ice core data
• The Greenhouse gas “signature”
• Computer models supported MMGW theory
• Therefore CO2 increase has caused warming
The Data Began to Change
• CO2 continued, but warming stopped
• Vostok ice cores re-analyzed
–
–
–
–
Re-analysis in 1999 and 2003
CO2 lags temperature by 800 years
CO2 an effect of warming, not a cause
Warming oceans release CO2 and vice versa
• No “greenhouse gas signature”
• More scientific papers – contrary evidence
• Non-agreement of computer models with empirical
data
Global Temperature Methods
How is global temperature measured?
• Ocean bathythermographic – since 2003
• Satellite MSU – since 1979
• Radiosonde (weather balloons) – since 1940’s
• Surface thermometers – since mid-1800’s
• Historical records – previous 2000 yrs
• Proxy analysis – precedes instrumental period
Proxy Data
• Precedes instrumental period
• Geological - chemical analysis of rocks
and fossils
• Isotopes: oxygen, hydrogen, carbon,
etc.
• Ocean sediments and corals
• Marine and pollen fossil analysis
• Ice cores, stalagmites, boreholes
• A familiar example of proxy data is
dating material by Carbon 14 analysis
Temperature Profile Since 1981
Temperature Trends and Patterns
Syun-Ichi Akasofu. The Recovery from the Little Ice Age and Recent Halting of the Warming. September, 2008.
Temperature Profile – Past 2000 yrs
Past 30
years
Craig Loehle, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement. 18 non-tree-ring proxies to 1935, 11 proxies after 1935 (dotted line).
12,000 Year Temperature Profile
Past 2,000 yrs
Does earth have a “normal” temperature?
420,000 year temperature and CO2
650 Million Year Profile
“Cambrian Explosion” –
First fossil evidence of a
massive increase in new
advanced life forms – plants,
fish, insects, etc. CO2 is 18
times higher than today.
Age of the Dinosaurs
(72)
Today’s
Avg temp
Major temperature
shifts completely
unrelated to CO2
levels.
Atmospheric CO2
diminishes as plant life
increases. Biological
absorption and geologic
deposition causes CO2 to
drop to levels of today.
(14)
(54)
Natural Climate Drivers
(Climate Forcings)
• Solar cycles
- 11, 33-year and longer cycles
• Earth’s planetary orientation
– Milankovitch Cycles
– 100,000, 42,000, and 23,000 year cycles
• Ocean dynamics
– 5, 30, and 1,500-year cycles
• Orientation of continents
– Earth in a glacial pattern for last 30 million years
A Common Sense Question
• If high CO2 can produce a thermal runaway,
why didn’t it happen when CO2 was many
hundreds of times higher than today?
• If it is possible, why has it never happened?
(Engineers tend to ask this question.)
Global Warming Theory
2. Main GW driver is CO2
from fossil fuels
The Case For and Against CO2
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas
• Greenhouse effect:
– Water vapor 85-90%
– Clouds 7-10%
– CO2 3-5%
– Methane, nitrous oxides, etc. < 1%
• CO2 effect strongest for first 40-100 ppm
• Logarithmic – additional CO2 has little effect
• Only acts as GHG in certain wavelengths
• CO2 is already doing about all it can do
IPCC “Models” vs Measured CO2
• Mauna Loa station on Hawaii
• Recording CO2 since ____
Global Energy Budget
Input + 342
Output – 107
Output – 235
Total -0
Troposphere
“Earth’s Annual Global Energy Budget” Kiehl and Trenberth 1997
Greenhouse Gas “Signature”
• IPCC models predicted tropospheric warming
• Warming would be greatest in tropic latitudes
10 years of Measurements –
No Greenhouse Gas “Signature”
CO2 in the Environment
• CO2 is plant food – required for all life
• More CO2 increases plant vitality and
growth – more efficient water use
• More CO2 has never been shown to
harm mankind or nature
•Cambrian Explosion occurred when CO2
was over 18 times today’s levels
Solar Cycle 24
• Will be a weak solar cycle
• Forecast to be a major cooling shift
• Up to 0.7 C decline in temperature over 30 yr
• Equivalent to a 100 km move north
• Cooler temperatures = less precipitation
•
Source: “Solar Cycle 24.” David Archibald, 2009
In Summary
• Climate has always changed.
• Current temperature is near minimum of
earth’s historic range of 12-22 C.
• Natural forces drive climate change:
abundant empirical evidence.
• No empirical evidence for CO2 as a
significant climate driver. None.
• Empirical evidence should always trump
speculation.
Recommendations
• Energy Goals
– Conserve energy, improve efficiency
– Avoid “green” alternatives that aren’t viable
– Fight for free market energy development
• CO2 isn’t “pollution” it is plant food
– Don’t waste money on non-problems
– Leaves less money for real problems
• Be skeptical
– Be wary of “authoritative sources”
– Rely on empirical evidence
• Prepare for a cooler world
QUESTIONS?
For:
•
•
•
•
pdf copy of “Energy: Present & Future, 2nd edition
List of my references
This powerpoint presentation
Summaries of Lindzen and Douglass papers
Email address: [email protected]
For detailed explanation of Climategate including timeline, names, associations,
and texts of emails, visit website of Senator James Inhofe (R-OK).
BACK SLIDES
• Back slides from here on
Two Important Papers
• “On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data.”
•
•
•
•
Prof. emeritus Richard Lindzen and Prof. Yong-Sand Choi, Atmos. Program, MIT
15 years of ERBE data. No reduction in outgoing long-wave radiation.
Therefore, no warming can be occurring from the greenhouse effect.
11 IPCC models shown to greatly over-estimate any CO2 warming.
• “A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.”
•
•
•
•
•
Prof. David Douglass (Univ. of Rochester) and others.
10 observational datasets: (3 surface, 4 radiosonde, 3 satellite)
Compared to 22 UN IPCC models
No warming of the troposphere relative to the surface.
IPCC models greatly over-estimated any enhanced greenhouse warming.
CO2 Growth Response
Growth response to a 300 ppm increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide level
•
•
•
•
•
•
49%
20%
24%
44%
48%
37%
-
C3 Cereals (wheat)
C4 Cereals (maize)
Fruits and Melons
Legumes
Roots and Tubers
Vegetables
Carbon Stores & Transfers
(760 Bt)
(2,300 Bt)
(7 Bt)
(100 Bt)
(120 Bt)
(800 Bt)
(4,000 Bt)
(38, 000 Bt)
(80, 000,000 Bt)
Natural Climate Drivers
Solar Cycles
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Variations in solar activity
11-yr, 30-yr, and longer average cycles
Total Solar Irradiance
Proxy for electromagnetic activity
Reduces cosmic ray flux
Reduces cloud formation
Increases solar radiation received
Weak solar cycles cause opposite effect
Natural Climate Drivers
Earth’s Planetary and Celestial Orientation
Milankovich Cycles – Long Term
• Orbital Eccentricity
– Earth’s elliptical orbit - 100,000 year cycle
• Obliquity - Tilt on its axis
– 22.1 to 24.5 degree tilt - 41,000 year cycle
• Precession
– Wobble on its spin axis - 23,000 year cycle
• Celestial - Solar system passes through Milky
Way spiral arms every 135 million years
Natural Climate Drivers
Ocean Dynamics
• Ocean is enormous thermal sink
• Top layer (300m) most active
• Numerous area patterns
–
–
–
–
Thermohaline Circulation – “Great Conveyor”
Pacific Decadal Oscillation – 30 years
El Nino-Southern Oscillation – 2-5 years
North Atlantic Oscillation – year-to-year
• Ocean oscillations both long and short-term
climate drivers
Satellite Method
• Since 1979
• 11 temperature satellites
• Twice daily orbiting
• Measures microwave energy in troposphere
• Troposphere: atmosphere to ~30,000 ft
• Microwave energy proportional to
temperature
• Worldwide coverage every day
• Land, oceans, mountains, deserts, jungles
Satellite Data Reliability
• Orbit earth twice daily
• Measures entire troposphere – top 30,000 ft
• Monitors oceans, mountains, deserts, etc.
• No “heat island” temperature distortion
• Can be calibrated/verified by radiosonde
• Consistent, reliable data reporting
• Highest quality temperature data since 1979
Surface Thermometers
• Since mid-1800’s
• Began as “Central England” record
• Gradually expanded
• Now ~5000 stations on land
• Some data taken at sea
• Subject to multiple sources of error
• Hadley CRU, NCDC (NOAA), and GISS (NASA)
• All utilize surface data in different ways
• IPCC uses data from Hadley CRU
Surface Temperature Reliability
• Predominantly land-based
• Land only 30% of earth’s surface
• Inaccessible locations a problem – deserts,
mountains, jungles, polar, etc.
• “Heat Island” effect distorts data
• Human reporting inconsistent
• 89% of NCDC stations faulty
• Data cannot be calibrated/verified
Faulty Surface Monitoring Stations
• All 1,221 U.S. temperature stations
inspected by volunteers
• 89% were faulty
Radiosonde Method
• Since 1958
• “Weather balloon” method
• Balloon lifts radio-altimeter
• Temperature at different altitudes
• Can be used to verify satellite data
Historical
• Records of events
• Examples
– Romans grew wine grapes in Britain?
– Vikings colonize southern Greenland
• During Medieval Warm Period ~1000 AD
• Farmed, raised cattle for 200 years
– Viking Greenland colony abandoned
– Winter fairs on frozen River Thames
– Ice breakup records in northern Europe
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse Effect of CO2
Energy Findings
LIQUID FUELS
•
•
•
•
Era of cheap oil is over, however:
U.S. has abundant coal
Natural gas reserves are rising
Liquid fuel sources
– Coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids
– Shale oil
– 100’s of years supply
– Cost competitive with today’s oil
• No current substitute for fossil fuels
Energy Findings
ELECTRICITY
• Nuclear power
– Reliable and cost competitive
– No air pollution emissions
– Spent fuel can be reprocessed
– 1000’s of years supply
Wind and Solar
– Unreliable, both require backup
– Requires enormous space
– May never be cheaper than nuclear