Transcript Climate Change, NEPA,

Climate Change,
NEPA,
And YOUR Role as a
Specialist
A Presentation to the Regional
Fuels/Ecology/Silviculture Specialists
Nov. 17, 2010
Jill Dufour, Regional Environmental
Coordinator
Pacific Northwest Region
You want me to
CLIMATE
CHANGE?!?
analyze
It would be nice if
we could avoid this
Today’s Discussion…
• NEPA specialists and climate change
• Two aspects of climate change analysis.
• The importance of taking time to THINK! (Is
climate change an issue?)
• Risk and uncertainty in NEPA:
– Analysis
– Decision making
• A challenge…
Climate change: Your role as
an IDT specialist
• KNOW the POSSIBLE EFFECTS of climate
change on your planning area.
• CONSIDER these effects when formulating
proposed actions.
• QUESTION your ASSUMPTIONS.
• DISCLOSE UNCERTAINTY.
Two aspects of climate change analysis
• The effects your project may
have on climate change (i.e.
carbon effects, GHG
emissions)
• The effects that climate
change has on your project.
(The focus of this talk)
(http://www.fs.fed.us/climatechange/docum
ents/nepa-guidance.pdf)
When you take on a NEPA task…
Do YOU take the time to THINK????
Is climate
change even an
issue for this
project????
Does your project impact climate
change???
It is highly unlikely that project-level
forestry and fuels projects
impact climate change.
See my draft “boilerplate” in your handouts.
Does Climate Change Affect Your
Project???
A Self-Study Course in Climate Change:
1) Work through the ENTIRE climate change
shortcourse:
http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/video/climate_101.
shtml
2.) Bookmark and study the
information on the Climate Impacts
Group website:
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
3.) Consider these pieces of scientific
information:
• “Bracketing” possible effects given A1B and A2
emissions scenarios; combined with the
Hadley global climate model.
• Water balance deficit estimates from Water
Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) (maps soon to be
available).
“Vegetation modeling is
not appropriate for
supporting tactical
decisions.”
Becky Kerns, PNW
Remember… We have been living and
working in a changing climate!
4.) Consider
YOUR
observations
and data:
We are NOT recommending that
you model vegetation responses at
this time!
Now Let’s Talk NEPA…
Climate Change
Proposed Actions
Effects
Implementation
and Monitoring
Proposed Actions:
• Are DFCs still valid?
• Are S&Gs still valid?
• Would this proposed action be good land
stewardship under foreseeable climate
conditions?
• Are Forest Plan amendments needed in light
of foreseeable climate effects?
THINK!!!!
Analyzing Effects
• Analyze & disclose direct, indirect, and
cumulative effects (40 CFR 1502, 36 CFR 220).
Incomplete/unavailable
data
Risk/uncertainty
disclosures
Incomplete/Unavailable Information
(40 CFR 1502.22)
• (1) A statement that such information is incomplete or
unavailable;
• (2) a statement of the relevance of the incomplete or
unavailable information to evaluating reasonably foreseeable
significant adverse impacts;
• (3) a summary of existing credible scientific evidence which is
relevant to evaluating the reasonably foreseeable significant
adverse impacts, and
• (4) the agency's evaluation of such impacts based upon
theoretical approaches or research methods generally
accepted in the scientific community.
Let’s Talk about Risk
& Uncertainty
A SCENARIO:
Risk/Uncertainty in NEPA
Bear Valley WUI Treatment
The Bear Valley RD is considering a proposed
action to treat the WUI surrounding Scenic
Town.
Bear Valley Thin
Purpose and Need:
Protect Scenic Town by
reducing fuels in
surrounding forests.
Proposed Action
Thin a strip 2 miles wide around Scenic Town,
reducing ponderosa pine densities to XX (basal
area).
NOTE: (This density “DFC” is a traditional, timehonored prescription that has been used for
fuels management for 50 years on the Bear
Valley RD)
But Wait! The Silviculturalist and Fuels
Specialists reconsider!
Note that this is an
interdisciplinary discussion
Future climate may range from cooler/wetter to
warmer/drier!
They propose a possible change in the prescription…
Proposal B:
Decrease densities to:
– Improve Ponderosa pine resilience.
– Widen the treatment area to ensure that the fire break is
adequate to protect Scenic Town.
Disclosing uncertainty in effects.
This prescription will produce proper stand conditions
and fire behavior needed to protect Scenic Town
under all reasonably foreseeable climatic
conditions; including:
• Typical weather and fire patterns observed in the
last 50 years, and
• The range of climate conditions (warmer, drier and
wetter/cooler predicted under climate change
scenarios A1B and A2 (reference) using the Hadley
global climate model (reference)) .
(NOTE: A detailed rationale would support these
findings)
Risk/Uncertainty in Effects
Key Points:
• No absolutes, state
findings as ranges and
possibilities.
• Think like the decision
maker!
• Put the “bottom line”
first, then write rationale.
• Include data confidence
intervals/resolution/error.
Decisions: Incorporating
Risk/Uncertainty
I have decided to treat the WUI as described in
Alt. B to accommodate a wide range of future
climatic conditions. If we see evidence in our
monitoring of more extreme fire behavior in
the next 10 years or drought stress in the
pines, I will consider new types of treatment
through another NEPA process.
It is my highest priority to keep Scenic Town safe.
What should our land management
decisions look like, given an uncertain
future?
Don’t worry… Be Happy!
• We will learn new information
• We can change & adapt
You’re professional land
managers!
You already know how
to do this stuff!
A Challenge:
YOU must be a climate change leader
• More rigorous, long-term
monitoring and synthesis of
findings.
• Unprecedented amounts of
scientific information to review.
And… Most importantly:
Managerial COURAGE and
HUMILITY.