Transcript Document

The BIG picture
Matthew Rivers
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Tuesday, 07 July 2015
1. EU Regulation on climate change
2. Demand for biomass
3. Supply in UK
4. What can this mean ?
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Tuesday, 07 July 2015
R.E.D.
is not a colour, or an
instruction to stop – but
it is a challenge !
The Renewable Energy Directive (2009)
defines the ambition of the EU to tackle
climate change.
• Global political lead in tackling climate change
• Secure 20% of final energy consumption across EU 27
from renewables by 2020
• Plus 20% reduction in energy use – efficiency
hence
20-20-20
• Use all forms of renewables - solar, wind, hydro and
biomass.
• Delivery of national targets is matter for Member States
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To meet EU targets : biomass sources dominate
~1,600 TWh heat and power estimated to come from biomass plus
~ 328 TWh of biomass based biofuels demand
TWh
2020 Final Energy Consumption (FEC) from different renewables
Total FEC from RED
2,985
Biofuels mandates
328
Heat and power
2,657
341
Power from hydro
Power from wind
70
Solar power
40
Solar heat
40
Geothermal power
and heat
Heat and power
from biomass
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555
13
1,642
SOURCE: European Commission; Europower and heat
2010 all Member States published National
Renewable Energy Action Plans.
UK starts from low base 3% and targets 15% by
2020 – x3 electricity generation.
Increase in demand for electricity (installed, gross
generation) from solid biomass only
Germany
Sweden
UK
Netherlands
Italy
Austria
Finland
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Lithuania
Greece
Luxumberg
Ireland
Bulgaria
0.0
5.0
10.0
2010 Generation
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15.0
TWh
Addition 2020
20.0
25.0
30.0
Responding to this expectation are a number of
large, planned biomass boilers for electricity.
There are many more smaller scale boilers being
installed and operating
Can be 2
Million
tonnes per
annum
demand
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Tuesday, 07 July 2015
UK technology intentions – for heating and
cooling (Ktoe)
• Scale of increase for solid
biomass is even more dramatic
• A proportion of biomass is
described as ‘’in households’’
which is shown to increase from
10% in 2010 to 25% of total
biomass used in 2020.
• District heating is expected to
increase from 42 to 230 Ktoe
Estimated final energy
consumption for heat + cool
(Ktoe)
Biomass gas
Biomass solid
2020
2010
Heat pumps
= substantial growing demand for
wood for heating
• Likely to be fragmented, local
and small scale units
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Source: Table 11 of UK NREAP
Solar
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Then there is the biofuels mandate …..
• Where to now?
The Economist, 30th October 2010.
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The biofuels agenda requires 10% of liquid fuels
to be from renewables by 2020
There are several different concepts – just
moving to pre-commercial phase with 2G which
can also use wood as feedstock
Feed Stock
Processes
1G: Sugar & Starch
1G
1G
Fermentation
Sugar
cane
Sugar
beet
Corn
Wheat
Transesterification
1G: Oleic Acid
1.5/2G
Hydro treatment
Rapeseed
Palm
Products
Soya
2G
Fuel ethanol
 10% gasoline blend
 E85 for FFV cars
 30% less energy
 0 .. 90% less CO2
Methyl ester diesel
 7% diesel blend
 10% less energy
 30 .. 60% less CO2
2G
2G: Cellulose
Enzymatic/acid hydrolysis
Grass
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Bagasse Sludge
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Wood
Gasification
Fischer-Tropsch
Synthetic gasoline
• 90% less CO2
Synthetic biodiesel
 high performance
 50 .. 90% less CO2
What about supply ?
EU 20-20-20 impact on Europe wide
woody biomass demand-supply balance in
‘conventional’ forest industry
-
Supply
Demand
Estimated gap
200 – 260
720–800
340–420
?
160–170
515–540
~380
355–370
Current forest • Mobilization Estimated
• Net imports supply
biomass
• Recovered
supply
wood
Estimated
demand
Non-traditional Traditional
demand
demand
• Paper
(energy)
• Wood products
Demand exceeds supply – there is only one way for price  An opportunity for new businesses
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In UK all biomass domestic production is
remarkably stable.
As our living standards increase we import
more – mainly food - most/all can be re-used
for energy at some point.
UK domestic biomass production and imports 1970 - 2008
Data from Office for National Statistics
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UK wood flow (M m³) in 2009-10 – rough numbers
can sustain 12 M tonnes of forest harvest and 5 M
recycled wood : when demand can be easily double
that amount
Exported
SRW
2.87 MT
Sawn timber
Drop to 416 km3 2009
Forest biomass
Logs
6.27 for wood
products
Total removal
10.81
Sawn timber
Recycled wood
5.4 to 5.52
6.27 MT
By products
3.76
Pulpwood
Wood based
panels
Fencing
7.75
*Forestry Commission
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By products
0.144
Forest energy
potential
~2.75 *
Firewood/Wood
780 k Fuel
780k
Forest residues
Small wood
456k Stumps
Branches
Arb Arisings
SRC
456k
1.072
Energy wood
biomass
Heat
1.072 Electricity
2.444
Pellets
0.188
Pulpwood
Wood based
3.76
panels
Fencing
0.46
Annual felling
potential till 2011
11.53
roundwood
10.03
2.7
10.03 Industrial
RCP
3.99 million –UK
4.85 million
Export
1.81million
potential
Of course outcomes are uncertain - but a clear
opportunity is to use national resources to better
effect : which also contributes to energy security.
POLITICS
EU
20
20
20
Subsidies
to change
the operational
environment
Increasing
competition
for wood
and
higher
prices
Globalization
of energy
wood biomass
market
Increase in
wood supply in
EU
Estimation of
EU-27 woody
biomass gap
2020 200 Mm³
Competition
with
the traditional
forest industry
will intensify
Role of waste
and
agriculture as
energy
source
will increase
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Role of waste
and other
Political target
burnadjustment (=
able material
failure ?)
as energy
source
will increase
The element that I am spending my time on
Key flows in shipped wood chips and biomass –
recent history
Total Pacific basin chip
18 M bdmt p.a.
0.9 [0.5]
Vietnam,Thailand +
Indonesia
3.9 [ 2.0]
0.7 [0.5]
Total Europe chip
2 M bdmt p.a.
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Wood pellets (M tonne, 2010 [2009] )
Pulp chips to Japan (BDMT)
Pulp chips to China (BDMT, 2010 [2009] )
Chips to Europe (BDMT)
What does this mean to us all ?
• Higher personal
energy bills ! –
because generators
are steered to deliver
Government
obligations + recover
all costs from the
consumer
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Summary
Climate change
• Sceptic or not -> doesn’t matter because
Regulatory action - mandatory
• Is in place : UK implementing via Green Bank, ROC, FiT, RHI
Threat or opportunity ? Of course both
•
•
•
•
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Energy use and emissions costs – vehicles ?
By-product use and value
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