Transcript Slide 1

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
A presentation to: The
National Science
Foundation Facilities
Workshop
Alexander E. MacDonald
Earth System Research
Laboratory – Director
DAA – OAR LCI
September 24, 2007
Boulder, Colorado
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
The quality of a prediction depends first on scientific
study to understand the physical processes. Then –
and only then – it can be correctly incorporated into
analysis and prediction models.
Approach
1. Take the right observations.
2. Understand the processes (physical or
chemical).
3. Incorporate into prediction models.
4. Change policy based on better knowledge.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
HWIND Aerosonde Plots/
Ophelia 16 Aug, 2005
Satellite image at time of
second closest approach of
Aerosonde to wind center
and just after WP-3D SFMR
penetration across the eye.
6
96
9
6
9
7
New NSF
assets such as
HIAPER
can improve
our
understanding
of storm
environments.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Determine the Fate of the Arctic Ocean Ice
ARCTIC ICE
COLLAPSE?
In 2007, the
Arctic ocean
ice decreased
to its lowest
ever coverage –
a full 15% less.
The
Community
Climate
Model
shows the
summer
ice to be
bistable,
with a rapid
transition
from ice to
ice-free in
the 21st
century.
(M. Holland
et al, 2006)
Permafrost (CCSM)
Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)
Sept. sea-ice (Observed)
SHEBA 1998: Scientists spend a year
on the Arctic Ocean ice . . .
Arctic clouds may provide a warm blanket . . .
Detailed resolved cloud
microphysics/optical
properties
Satellite Validation
Nine-year comparison of monthly
cloud fractions form surface, TOVS
and AVHRR on NOAA satellites And
MODIS on NASA satellites over
Barrow, Alaska
Aerosol Cloud Interactions
Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budgets
In the NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems program, we
propose to fly over the Arctic ice at low and high levels to
measure the Arctic energy balance.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
A rapid melt of Arctic ocean ice could increase
the rate of Greenland ice melt. This chart from
Overpeck shows a 2 meter sea level rise in red.
NOAA would like to work with NSF to make Summit Greenland a full year-round
observatory for carbon and other science.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Colorado River Basin Overview
Source:Reclamation
• 7 States, 2 Nations
• Fastest Growing Part of
the U.S.
• Over 1,450 miles in length
• Basin makes up about 8%
of total U.S. lands
• Highly variable Natural
Flow which averages 15
MAF
• Irrigates 3.5 million acres
• Very Complicated Legal
Environment
Population Growth of Colorado River Basin States
1900-2000
60
Other 6 Basin States Combined
California
Population Growth in the Colorado River
50
1978 to 1997: 4th Wettest
20-Year Period in last ~450
Years 1900
(Woodhouse
et al.)
Basin:
– 2000
Population in Millions
Currently: 50+ Million
40
AZ, CO, NM,
NV, UT, WY
30
20
1905-1924: 2nd
Wettest 20-Year
Period in last ~450
Years (Woodhouse et
al.)
1922: Colorado River
Compact Negotiated
California
10
Population Data Source:
www.census.gov
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Trends in Temperature
Units
in
Days
Mote, et. al, 2005
Regonda, et. al, 2005
Stuff
and
Hoerling and Eischeid Eye-Opening Results
Another 2° C Projected to
2050
1° C
since
1970
Average Flow = ~5maf by 2050
Article at: wwa.colorado.edu/resources/climate_change.html
Christensen et al and Wolter/Doesken Colorado Temps as well
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Past and present variability of marine pH. Future predictions for years shown
on the right-hand side of the figure are model-derived values based on IPCC
mean scenarios. From Pearson and Palmer adapted by Turley et al. and
from the Eur-Oceans Fact Sheet No. 7, "Ocean Acidification - the other half
of the CO2 problem", May 2007 .
System Description:
A new generation of moored buoys is proposed:
Platform and Instrumentation for Continuous Ocean Observation
“PICO”
• Inexpensive
• Moored (Eulerian)
• Low Maintenance (3 year service)
• Easy deployment
• Durable
• Industrial design plan
• Multipurpose ( Crawlers with a
variety of sensors that go up and down
the taut line that extends to the bottom
of the ocean)
• Concept from PMEL
NSF’s Ocean
Observatories
are a crucial part
of IOOS and the
observational
basis for
understanding
and predicting a
changing ocean.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Will
rising
temperatures
release
large
st
CARBON: Humankind’s great 21 century challenge.
stores of high-latitude carbon?
CARBON TRACKER
Developed by ESRL/GMD
"The struggle of today, is not
altogether for today -- it is for
a vast future also. "
--From the December 3, 1861
Message to Congress
Earth Systems Research Laboratory
Mission: “To observe and understand the earth system and to . . . advance
NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scale.”