Transcript Himalayan Glaciers Climate Change, Water Resources, and

The Arctic in the Anthropocene
Emerging Research Questions
Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington
Committee Co-Chairs
April 28, 2014
Study sponsors: DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, USARC
Photo credit: P. Spector
Who are we?
•
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a nonprofit
organization established in 1863. We were chartered
by Congress during the Lincoln Administration to
provide independent advice to the Nation on
science, engineering, and medicine We are not
a government agency.
•
National Academy of Engineering (NAE - est. 1964) and Institute of Medicine
(IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of
expertise. (National Research Council is “operating arm.”)
•
Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise,
balance, and objectivity.
•
Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also
research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.
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Committee Membership
HENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-Chair
The Pew Charitable Trusts
STEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-Chair
Barnard College, Columbia University
CARIN ASHJIAN
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ
Michigan Technological University
JENNIFER FRANCIS
Rutgers University
SVEN HAAKANSON
University of Washington
ROBERT HAWLEY
Dartmouth College
TAQULIK HEPA
North Slope Borough
DAVID HIK
University of Alberta
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LARRY HINZMAN
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
AMANDA LYNCH
Brown University
A. MICHAEL MACRANDER
Shell Alaska
GIFFORD MILLER
University of Colorado, Boulder
KATE MORAN
Ocean Networks Canada
ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSON
The Ohio State University
SAMUEL MUKASA
University of New Hampshire
TOM WEINGARTNER
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
1. Study Context
• What happens in the Arctic—
to ecosystems, people, and
climate—has far-reaching
implications for the entire planet
• Climate change is happening
faster in the Arctic than anywhere
else on Earth, causing the loss of
sea ice, thawing of permafrost,
and shifts in ecosystems
• This report connects the dots
between future science
opportunities and methods to
meet those challenges
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Charge to the Committee
Photo credit: M. Kennedy
• Summarize the rationale for
continued U.S. research in the
Arctic
• Identify key emerging scientific
questions in different realms of
Arctic science (both disciplinary
and cross cutting)
• Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management,
technological developments, and logistical support needed
• Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in
Arctic research
• Explore how agency decision makers might balance their
research programs and associated investments
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Community Engagement
• Review of published reports and articles
(including previous reports from numerous
regional, national, and international agencies,
organizations, and other institutions )
• Online questionnaire
(over 300 responses)
• Targeted interviews
(15 researchers)
• Anchorage Workshop
(~50 participants)
• Ottawa Workshop
(~45 participants)
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Photo credit: P. Spector
Community Engagement
9%
Respondent Career Stage
Graduate student
35%
24%
Early career
Mid-career
32%
Late career
Respondent Disciplines
22% 10%
18%
3%
12%
6%
17% 12%
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Atmosphere/climate
Biology/ecology
Cryosphere
Oceans
People/social science
Terrestrial/geo
Paleo
Other/interdisciplinary
2. Rationale for Arctic Research
Examples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014
Category
Examples
Snow and Ice
Rivers and Lakes
Floods and Drought
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Decreasing sea ice cover in summer
Reduction in ice volume in glaciers
Decreasing snow cover extent
Widespread permafrost degradation
Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers
Increased lake water temperatures
Disappearance of thermokarst lakes due to permafrost
degradation in the low Arctic
Terrestrial Ecosystems
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Increased shrub cover in the tundra
Advance of Arctic tree line in latitude and altitude
Changed breeding area and population size of subarctic birds
Loss of snowbed ecosystems and tussock tundra
Coastal Erosion and
Marine Ecosystems
• Increased coastal erosion
• Negative effects on non-migratory species
Food Production and
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Livelihoods
• Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples
• Increased shipping traffic across Bering Strait
3. Emerging Research Questions
• Existing Questions Those that have been the subject
of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for
other reasons deserve continued attention
• Emerging Questions Those that we are only now
able to ask because they:
– Address newly recognized
phenomena
– Build on recent results and
insights
– Can be addressed using newly
available technology or access
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Photo credit: G. Miller
Emerging Research Questions
Evolving
Connected
Undetermined
Managed
Hidden
ERQ: Evolving Arctic
Evolving
Connected
Undetermined
• Will Arctic communities have greater or
lesser influence on their futures?
• Will the land be wetter or drier and what
are the associated implications for
surface water, energy balances, and
ecosystems?
• How much of the variability of the Arctic
system is linked to ocean circulation?
• What are the impacts of extreme events
in the new ice-reduced system?
• How will primary productivity change
with decreasing sea ice and snow cover?
• How will species distributions and
associated ecosystem structure change
with the evolving cryosphere?
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Managed
Hidden
Figure source: NOAA
ERQ: Hidden Arctic
Evolving
Connected
Undetermined
• What surprises are hidden within
and beneath the ice?
• What is being irretrievably lost as
the Arctic changes?
• Why does winter matter?
• What can “break or brake” glaciers
and ice sheets?
Managed
Hidden
• How unusual is the current Arctic
warmth?
• What is the role of the Arctic in
abrupt change?
• What has been the Cenozoic
evolution of the Arctic Ocean
basin?
Image source: NASA
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ERQ: Connected Arctic
Evolving
Connected
Undetermined
• How will rapid Arctic warming change
the jet stream and affect weather
patterns in lower latitudes?
• What is the potential for a trajectory of
irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and
how will its impact vary regionally?
• How will climate change affect
exchanges between the Arctic Ocean
and sub-polar basins?
• How will Arctic change affect the longrange transport and persistence of
biota?
• How will changing societal connections
between the Arctic and the rest of the
world affect Arctic communities?
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Managed
Hidden
Image source: NASA
ERQ: Managed Arctic
Evolving
Connected
Undetermined
• How will decreasing populations in rural villages
and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples
and societies?
• Will local, regional, and international relations in
the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict?
• How can twenty-first century development in the
Arctic occur without compromising the
environment or indigenous cultures while still
benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants?
• How can we prepare forecasts and scenarios
to meet emerging management needs?
• What benefits and risks are presented by
geoengineering and other large-scale
technological interventions to prevent or
reduce climate change and associated
impacts in the Arctic?
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Managed
Hidden
Photo source: USCG
ERQ:
Undetermined Arctic
Evolving
Connected
Undetermined
Managed
Hidden
Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to
identify new research directions when the need arises
requires:
• Research to better assess new topics
• Long-term observations to identify changes and
surprises without delay
• Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when
a significant event occurs.
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Direct Application/Basic Understanding
Direct
application
Short-term
Medium-term
Long-term
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21st century development
M4: Forecasts
M5: Geoengineering
E1: Community futures
M1: Urbanization
C1: Jet stream
C5: Social connections
E4: Arctic extremes
H2: What is lost
C2: Irreversible ice
E2: Wetter or drier
H3: Winter
Basic
understanding
H4: Break or brake
H6: Abrupt change
E5: Primary productivity
H1: Icy surprises
E6: Species distribution
E3: Ocean variability
C4: Biota transport
H5: Unusual warmth
C3: Ocean exchange
H7: Cenozoic
Social Science/Natural Science
Social
Science
Short-term
Medium-term
Long-term
E1: Community futures
M1: Urbanization
C5: Social connections
M2: Cooperation/conflict
H2: What is lost
E4: Arctic extremes
M4: Forecasts
M5: Geoengineering
M3: 21st century development
E2: Wetter or drier
E5: Primary productivity
C1: Jet stream
C2: Irreversible ice
H6: Abrupt change
C4: Biota transport
Natural
Science
H1: Icy surprises
E3: Ocean variability
H4: Break or brake
H5: Unusual warmth
E6: Species distribution
H3: Winter
C3: Ocean exchange
H7: Cenozoic
Global/Regional/Local
Global
Short-term
Medium-term
H4: Break or brake
H1: Icy surprises
C1: Jet stream
Long-term
C2: Irreversible ice
C3: Ocean exchange
H6: Abrupt change
C4: Biota transport
M5: Geoengineering
Regional
E3: Ocean variability
E4: Arctic extremes
C5: Social connections
E2: Wetter or drier
M3: 21st century development
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M4: Forecasts
E1: Community futures
H2: What is lost
H7: Cenozoic
E6: Species distribution
M1: Urbanization
Local
H5: Unusual warmth
H3: Winter
E5: Primary productivity
4. Meeting the Challenges
Investment Strategies
Human Capacity
Operations
Information
Observations
Cooperation
Meeting the Challenges
Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity
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Mobile Platforms
Fixed Platforms and Systems
Remote Sensing
Sensors
Power and Communication
Models in Prediction, Projection,
and ReAnalyses
• Partnerships with Industry
Sustaining Long-Term Observations
• Rationale for Long-Term Observations
• Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts
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Photo credit: S. Roberts
Meeting the Challenges
Enhancing Cooperation
Image source: Arctic Collaborative Environment
• Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media
Managing and Sharing Information
• Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination
• Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing
• Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders,
and Archives
• Data Visualization and Analysis
Growing Human Capacity
• Training Young Scientists
• Community Engagement
Photo credit: H. Huntington
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Meeting the Challenges
Investing in Research
• Comprehensive Systems
and Synthesis Research
• Non-Steady-State Research
• Social Sciences and Human Capacity
• Stakeholder-Initiated Research
• International Funding Cooperation
• Long-Term Observations
Photo source: NOAA
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5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems
• Enhance the ways in
which we make use
of Arctic research
• Foster collaboration,
especially with
decision-makers
• Manage change to the best of our abilities
• Study what exists, what is emerging, and what
awaits us in the Arctic
Photo credit: M. Kennedy
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