Transcript Pershing -- BASIC SAO PAOLO meeting

A View from the US
B A S
I C
Sao Paolo, Brazil
August, 2006
Jonathan Pershing, Rob Bradley
Climate, Energy and Pollution Program
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
Overview
•
Observed 20th century climate change
― Emissions
― Impacts
•
•
Projections: future expectations for
emissions
US Policy
― Federal
― State
― Private
The US contributes the largest
share of global GHG emissions…
Rest of World
US
(20%)
Global GHG Emissions
Source: WRI/CAIT, 2000 Data
U.S. Emissions Mix
100
% Share of Fuel Mix
Renewables
75
Hydro
Nuclear
50
Gas
25
Oil
Coal
0
Source: WRI/CAIT
Source: IEA Statistics
4
GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
State GHG Emissions, 2001
MT CO2 eq of CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, SF6, includes land use
Source: WRI/CAIT
Change over 20th Century:
Annual Mean Temperature
ºF
Americans may soon have to settle for a Non-Glacier National Park.
Projections: future expectations for emissions
US CO2 Emissions Projections
60
50
EIA High
40
EIA Ref
30
EIA Low
IEA (USA & Canada)
20
POLES
10
Source: WRI/CAIT
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
20
04
0
Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth
% Percent change from 2000
Source: WRI, Baumert et al, 2005
“Heat index” combines temperature and humidity to measure discomfort. Washington DC July
heat index was 87°F in 1970, reaches about 98°F in a 2xCO2 world and 110°F in a 4xCO2 world.
Under BAU, we’re headed for 4x.
Drought Expectations
The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months
—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and
drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus
3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.
A one meter sea level rise
US Policy
― Federal
― State
― Private Sector
Bush Administration
Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives
• Goal: to reduce US GHG intensity by 18% by 2012
– Equivalent to ~4% reduction relative to BaU
– Total emissions increase by 31% over 1990 levels
– Further measures in 2012 if target not met
• Voluntary initiatives
– Improve voluntary registry (provide baseline to give “credits” for real
reduction; likely to require legislation)
– Climate VISION Partnership (12 sectors and BRT work with EPA,
DOE, DOT and USDA to reduce GHG emissions)
– Climate Leaders (EPA corporate partnership with individual
companies; 50 companies now participating)
• Fuel economy standards for light trucks (20.7mpg 
22.2mpg by 2007)
• Tax incentives for GHG reductions (RE, EE and
sequestration)
USG Roadmap for Climate Change Technology
Development and Deployment for the 21st Century
Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005
US Technology Program Budget
US Climate Technology Program
Activity
Agency
2007 Proposed Budget
($millions)
IGCC & Sequestration
DOE
123.8
Hydrogen Storage
DOE
34.6
Cellulosic Biomass
(Biochemical Platform
R&D)
DOE
32.8
Advanced Nuclear
DOE
25
Low Wind Speed
Technology
DOE
19.1
Transportation Fuel Cell
Systems
DOE
7.5
Methane Partnership
EPA
13
Numerous Proposals have been
made in the US Congress…
…although few have passed
•
•
•
GHG reduction
•
•
•
Energy Policy
GHG Reporting
Supporting
International
Negotiations
Appropriations
Power Plants
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Transport
Hydrogen
Clean Coal
Carbon Sequestration
Buildings
Waste recycling
Science/Research
McCain-Lieberman Climate
Stewardship Act
• Summary:
– A bill establishing a market-driven system
of greenhouse gas tradable allowances
– Cap: at 2000 levels by 2010
• Voting History:
– October 2003: 43-55
– June 2005: 38 - 60
Sense of the Senate (Vote 54-43)
• Congress finds that—
(1) greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere
are causing average temperatures to rise… and are
posing a substantial risk…;
(2) there is a growing scientific consensus that human
activity is a substantial cause…; and
(3) mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the
growth of greenhouse gas emissions ….
• Sense of the Senate
Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective
national program of mandatory, market-based limits and
incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow,
stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions….
-- US Senate: June 2005
The Safe Climate Act of 2006
(H.R. 5642, Rep Waxman)
• Freeze U.S. GHG emissions in 2010 at the 2009 levels.
• Beginning 2011, cuts emissions by roughly 2% per year
(reaching 1990 emissions levels by 2020).
• After 2020, cuts emissions by roughly 5% per year (by 2050,
emissions will be 80% lower than in 1990).
• Implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through:
– Cap-and-trade program (with auctioned permit revenues supporting
“Climate Reinvestment Fund”)
– Standards for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from motor
vehicles that are at least as stringent as the current California
standards. EPA must tighten these standards in 2014 and
periodically thereafter.
– Standards requiring an increasing proportion of electricity to be
generated from renewable energy sources, reaching 20% in 2020.
– Standards requiring utilities to obtain, each year, 1% of their energy
supplies through end use energy efficiency improvements
Climate Action Plans
Source: Pew Climate Center
Renewable Energy Mandates
Source: Pew Climate Center
States with Biofuel Mandates
Ethanol Mandates
Biodiesel Mandates
Source: WRI, CAIT
US Renewable Resources
Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005
Geothermal
US market developing too
• Goal: A regional cap-and-trade
program initially covering CO2
emissions from power plants
– Stabilize emissions at base levels
through 2014
– Reduce by 10% by 2018
• Region statistics:
– 7 states represent 7% US total GHG
emissions
–  1.5% of world GHG emissions (
Australia, rank 15th)
• Other states: MD (just signed),
MA (expected to rejoin with new
governor)
31
California Policies
• Transport
–Starting in 2003,10% light duty vehicles
to be zero emitting
–15% of buses with zero emissions by
2008
• Registry of GHGs (CCAR)
• RPS: 20% by 2017
• $62 million public research program
GHG and Fuel Economy Standards
55
EU
MPG - Converted to CAFE Test Cycle
50
Japan
45
40
California
China
35
Australia
Canada
30
25
20
2002
US
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Fox News Climate Change Poll
(October 25-26, 2005)
“Do you think the Global
warming situation is best
described as a crisis, a
major problem, or is it not
problem at all?”
Crisis
Not a Problem
Major Problem
Don't Know
Minor Problem
“Who do you think should
be mostly responsible for
protecting the nation’s
environment?”
Manufacturers
All/Combiniation
Government
Don't Know
Citizens
US Shareholder Resolutions on
Climate Change
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: WRI based on Investor Network on Climate Risk
Closing Thoughts
Concluding Comments
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Climate change impacts are already being seen in the US, and are
projected to become more severe
Federal action is limited: The Bush Administration has paid only lip
service to the problem, and Congress, while authoring many
proposals, has passed very few
Most climate efforts are at the State and local level; these are
beginning to shape both pubic opinion and corporate behavior.
For the foreseeable future, the US is likely to operate in a highly
fragmented policy regime, including combinations of government
regulations, markets and technology, augmented by private sector
initiatives; these will vary from State to State and sector to sector.
Ultimately, the race is between effective policy and emissions
reductions, and climate change and increased impacts. So far,
impacts are winning.
–
This may change in the next presidential election – but perhaps less
than many would wish as a result of the entrenched nature of the US
energy sector in the economy