Transcript Document

1 needs of the
GEOSS
support for IPCC assessments: A workshop on the data
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research community,
1-4 February 2011, Room C1, WMO Building, Geneva
（Lead Authors for the 4th Assessment Report
of the IPCC, WG II, Chapter 3 “Freshwater
resources and their management”）
SESSION 3: WATER RESOURCES
Past assessments and data sources
Critical issues: gaps, shortcomings,
coverage, scale and currency
Taikan Oki
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
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WGIII
WGII
(Richard H. Moss, et al., Nature, 2010)
WGI
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
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AR4 Ch3: Key Uncertainties
 Quantitative projections of changes in
hydrological characteristics for a drainage basin.
Precipitation is not reliably simulated in present
climate models.
 However, it is well established:
precipitation variability increases
useful conclusions are possible for snow-dominated
basins
Sea-level rise will extend areas of salinisation of
groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease in
freshwater availability in coastal areas
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AR4 Ch3: Demands
 improve the understanding of sources of
uncertainty in order to improve the credibility of
projections.
 scale mismatch between the large-scale climatic
models and the catchment scale (down scaling)
 Impacts of changes in climate variability need to
be integrated into impact modelling efforts.
 Improvements in coupling climate models with
the land-use change, including vegetation change
and anthropogenic activity such as irrigation
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AR4 Ch3: Shortcomings
 Impacts on water quality and ground water
 Economic aspects of climate change impacts and
adaptation options related to water resources
 Research into human-dimension indicators of
climate change impacts on freshwater
 Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems
(temp., flow regimes, water levels, and ice cover)
 Detection and attribution of observed changes in
freshwater resources, with particular reference
to characteristics of extremes
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AR4 Ch3: Observational Network
Progress in research depends on
improvements in data availability, calling
for enhancement of monitoring endeavors
worldwide, addressing the challenges posed
by projected climate change to freshwater
resources, and reversing the tendency of
shrinking observation networks.
Broadening access to available observation
data is a prerequisite to improving
understanding of the ongoing changes.
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Can we attribute
observed changes of
global mean
precipitation either
over globe or land?
Global
• Very short period, but
we are measuring the
drastic change?!
Land only
• Large descripancies
among GCMs  areal
and uniform
observation is relevant
for evaluation
(Nohara et al., JHM, 2006)
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AR4 Ch3: Data needs
Relatively short hydrometric records can
underplay the full extent of natural
variability and confound detection studies,
while long-term river flow reconstruction
can place recent trends and extremes in a
broader context.
Data on water use, water quality, and
sediment transport are even less readily
available.
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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No “detection and
attribution of climate
change impacts” on
freshwater resources,
but “current
vulnerability”
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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Limited number
of quantitative
messages on the
future projections.
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
(IPCC, AR4
SYR, 2007)
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http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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Total Water Withdrawal (106m3/y)
in 2050 (difference to Year 2000)
(2055-2000)
A1b
-5000 -200
-50
-5
5
50
200 1000 5000
(Shen, et. al, 2008, HSJ)
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Change in water stress index for 2050 (difference)
2055-2000
A1b
< -0.2
-0.2 ~ -0.1
-0.1 ~ 0.1
0.1 ~ 0.2
0.2 ~ 0.4
0.4 ~ 0.6
> 0.6
A2
MultiGCM/GSWP2
B1
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Change in water stress index for 2050 (ratio)
2055/2000
A1b
< 0.5
0.5 - 0.9
0.9 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 3.0
3.0 - 4.0
4.0 - 5.0
> 5.0
A2
MultiGCM/GSWP2
B1
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Social changes as
well as climate
changes should be
considered.
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Number of people under
serious water stress
Awc= Q/C
(m3/y/c)
Rws in 2055 (A2)
Rws= (W-S)/Q
(Oki and Kanae, Science, 2006)
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Number of people
could be fine, but
economical value
should also be
quantified.
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Additional Damage by CC
Impact Assessments with CC and SC
Same magnitude
of hazard will
cause different
damage
How will it be
changed by
investments in
adaptation?
More frequent
with Climate
Change
How will it
change with ΔT
or GHG level?
(mitigation)
Current
relationship
rare &
severe
Probability of Non-Exceedance
hazard
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
-mi -ad
-mi +ad
Climate change cost
= mitigation cost
+ adaptation cost
+ residual damages
+mi -ad
+mi +ad
(De Bruin et al. 2009)
Additional Cost (Damage)
by Climate Change ($$)
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Knowledge Gap?
(De Bruin et al. 2009)
??
Experts in disaster risk
management is relevant for
climate change policy studies!!
Investment in Adaptation ($$)
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One of new issues in AR5/WGII/Ch3
assessing the integrated impacts of climate
change on water resources management
through:
hydrological changes,
temperature rise,
increments of CO2 concentration,
sea level rise, and
mitigation and adaptation measures,
including the expansion of renewable energy consumption,
together with non-climatic (socio-economic) changes.
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Earth Observation (from space)
 for detections of long term trends and changes
 for early warning system: ( adaptation)
Contribute for risk management. Numerical
weather forecasts highly depend on satellite
information. Precipitation obs. from space can
contribute for issuing alerts in data poor regions.
 for seasonal predictions: ( adaptation)
Utilize current states as for the initial conditions in
predictions: SST, soil moisture, snow cover,
vegetation cover, …
 for calibration, validation, and improvements
of physically based numerical models  future
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Required data for “water”
 Historical record: stream flow, GW level, water use, …
 Field campaign data for model developments
 Atmospheric forcing:
 P, Rs↓, Rl ↓, T, q, u, ps, pCO2, …
 Detailed topography (in the future as well?!) and geology, …
 Land use/land cover, vegetation type/fraction, soil type, …
 Population, GDP, technology, … (from RCPs/SSPs)
 Irrigation efficiency, cropland area, irrigated area, crop type,
crop calendar, agricultural skills, fertilizer input, …
 Reservoirs: location, capacity, operation rule, …
 Medium size reservoirs, small ponds/tank, rain harvesting, …
 Water related disaster database
 Floods, droughts, storm surge, land slides, …
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For researchers outside GEO/IPCC
Don’t
Compare AO-GCM outputs with observations
in daily, monthly, or even in annual time scale.
(e.g., P on July 1st, 2008 by AO-GCM & Obs.)
Use GCM outputs as if they are from in-situ
observation: biases, different PDFs, …
 but Do
 Think how we can extract valuable information from
GCM outputs
 signs of trends could be different among GCM estimates
Business Chance in providing value-added data
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Reminders
 Detection and attribution of long-term trend in
hydro-climatological “impacts” are as relevant
as applying GCM predictions for the future.
 Let’s consider social changes provided from
SSPs (shared socio-economic pathways) in
impact assessments.
with autonomous and planned adaptation
 Hazard-damage relationships with adaptation
measures should be investigated & developed.
Preferably with quantitative economic value ($$)
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Review
of AR4
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII
Chapter 3, 2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
(IPCC, AR4
WGII
Chapter 3
2007)
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http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
(IPCC, AR4
WGII
Chapter 3
2007)
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http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII, Chapter 3, 2007)
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AR4 Chapter 3 Executive Summary
 The impacts of climate change on freshwater
systems and their management are mainly due to
the observed and projected increases in
temperature, sea level and precipitation
variability (very high confidence).
 Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly
exposed to the impacts of climate change on
freshwater (high confidence).
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AR4 Chapter 3 Executive Summary
 Higher water temperatures, increased
precipitation intensity, and longer periods of low
flows exacerbate many forms of water pollution,
with impacts on ecosystems, human health,
water system reliability and operating costs (high
confidence).
 Climate change affects the function and
operation of existing water infrastructure as well
as water management practices (very high
confidence).
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AR4 Chapter 3 Executive Summary
 Adaptation procedures and risk management
practices for the water sector are being
developed in some countries and regions (e.g.,
Caribbean, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, UK,
USA, Germany) that have recognised projected
hydrological changes with related uncertainties
(very high confidence).
 The negative impacts of climate change on
freshwater systems outweigh its benefits (high
confidence).
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(IPCC, AR4
WGII, TS,
2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII
SPM, 2007)
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(IPCC, AR4, WGII
SPM, 2007)