Transcript Tourism, Climate Change and Sustainability

Impacts of Climate Change on
the Welsh Visitor Economy
Dr Brian Garrod
IBERS
Aberystwyth University
27 April 2011
Outline
• Commissioned by Visit
Wales, the Welsh
Assembly Government
and the Countryside
Council for Wales, 2010
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ADAS
Aberystwyth University
Manchester University
University of East Anglia
Climate change and the visitor economy
• Visitor economy = international tourism +
domestic tourism +
same-day visits
• The visitor economy is at the same time both a
significant perpetrator and a major victim of climate
change
• Arguably no other economic sector is in such a conflicted
position!
Climate change and the visitor economy
The visitor economy’s contribution to climate
change
• World visitor economy contributed 4.9% of world
emissions of CO2 in 2005 (UNWTO/UNEP, 2009)
• For comparison - if the world visitor economy was a
country it would have been the world’s fifth largest
emitter (the UK, eighth in the list, contributed 1.8%)
• Tourist air transport alone contributed 2% of global CO2
emissions
Climate change and the visitor economy
Impacts of climate change on the visitor economy
The visitor economy is especially vulnerable because of the
range of potential impacts
… as well as their probable severity
1. Direct impacts (climate is a major determinant of
destination image)
2.Indirect impacts, e.g. water supply, flooding, biodiversity
loss
3.Impacts of mitigation policies, e.g. fiscal measures to
discourage air travel
4.Social change impacts, e.g. wider impacts on destination
image due to security perceptions
Impacts of climate change on the Welsh
visitor economy
• Focusing on direct impacts (for 2050s)
• 70-80% of British tourists cite poor UK weather as their
primary reason for holidaying abroad
• Linking weather patterns to visitor patterns:
▫ Thermal – e.g. temperature (wind speed/direction)
▫ Physical – e.g. rainfall
▫ (Aesthetic – e.g. clear skies)
Impacts of climate change on the Welsh
visitor economy
• Wales has traditionally been viewed as a family/beach
holiday destination
• But increasing emphasis on the ‘independent active’
visitor
• Therefore five activities were identified:
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Golf
Beach activities (3S and other)
Walking
Mountain biking
Urban activities, e.g. visiting indoor/outdoor museums
Impacts of climate change on the
Welsh visitor economy
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Using an activity threshold approach
Meta-analysis of all available studies
Then adapted to Welsh context
Based on maximum daily temperature and rainfall (so as
to link with available UKCP09 data)
• Base activity days – when levels of participation are
greater than the background level (i.e. more
participation than just the core enthusiast group)
• Optimum activity days – peak participation, with the
highest participation from non-enthusiasts
Impacts of climate change on the Welsh
visitor economy
Almost half
as many
again optimum
days for outdoor
urban visits
But more days
will be too hot
for outdoor
urban visits
And more days
will be too hot
even for indoor
museum visits
Many more
days will be
conducive to
general
beach
activities
But not many
more days will
be optimum
for 3S beach
activities
More
optimum
days for
mountain
biking and
walking
But more days
will be too hot
for mountain
biking and
walking
Final conclusions
• Results suggest that there will be more optimum days for
most visitor activities important to Wales in the future
BUT
• Wetter autumns and winters may have an adverse
impact on visits outside the main summer season
• These are only the direct impacts of climate change on
the visitor economy
• Only a limited range of weather variables are included,
e.g. wind, lag effect of past rainfall on ground conditions
• Other factors, such as marketing and transport
infrastructure are important if Wales wants to capture
this growth in demand