Transcript Responding to Climate Myths

Responding to
Climate Change Myths
John Cook
Date: 14 July 2013
One Model of the Human Brain
A More Accurate Model of the Human Brain
The Familiarity Backfire Effect
The Familiarity Backfire Effect
Danger,
Will Robinson!
Approaching
myth!
The Overkill Backfire Effect
MYTH
FACT FACT FACT
FACT FACT FACT
FACT FACT FACT
FACT FACT FACT
MYTH
• A simple myth is more cognitively attractive
than an over-complicated correction
(Schwarz et al 2007)
The Overkill Backfire Effect
MYTH
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
• A simple myth is more cognitively attractive
than an over-complicated correction
(Schwarz et al 2007)
“I didn’t have time
to write a short letter,
so I wrote a long one
instead.”
MARK
TWAIN
The Worldview Backfire Effect
One last psychological pitfall
An Alternative Explanation
MYTH
Removing
a myth leaves
a gap
An Alternative Explanation
FACT
Replace
with alternative
narrative
Fight Sticky Ideas
With Stickier Ideas
Questions?
Communicating “Sticky” Ideas
Sticky ideas are:
• Simple
• Unexpected
• Concrete
• Credible
• Emotional
• Story
SUCCES
Sticky Ideas vs Mathematics
Sticky ideas are:
• Simple
• Unexpected
• Concrete
• Credible
• Emotional
• Story
SUCCES
Climate Science is:
• Complicated
• Perplexing
• Abstract
• Attacked
• Detached
• Numbers
Andrew
Bolt
“New data released two
weeks ago shows the
pause in global warming
has now lasted 16
years.”
Is global warming happening?
The most dangerous climate misconception
“There is no scientific consensus that humans are causing global
warming”
Cook et al 2013
The importance of consensus
Ding et al 2011 found that people who believe scientists disagree
on global warming are less likely to support climate policy
McCright et al 2013:
“Climate change communicators should therefore identify
opportunities and employ techniques to effectively counter the
denial machine’s campaign of challenging the scientific
consensus. Overcoming its success in generating belief that
scientists do not agree about anthropogenic global warming
seems to be crucial for increasing public support for
emissions reduction policies.”
Media Coverage of The Consensus Project
“97% of scientists,
including, by the way,
some who originally
disputed the data, have
now put that to
rest. They’ve
acknowledged the planet
is warming and human
PRESIDENT
activity isOBAMA
contributing to
it.”
Questions?
Examples of sticky climate messages?
5 Techniques of Consensus Denial
1. Fake Experts
2. Logical fallacies
3. Impossible Expectations
4. Cherry Picking
5. Conspiracy Theories
FLICC
Consensus
Consensus
Fake Experts
Fake Experts
“The Oregon Institute of
Dana
Rohrabacher,
Republican
Congressman
Science and Medicine, the
OISM, released the names of
some 31,478 scientists who
signed a petition rejecting the
claims of human-caused global
warming.”
Logical Fallacies
• Examples of logical fallacies: ad hominem attacks,
strawman arguments, misrepresentation.
• Most popular climate myth uses the Non Sequitur
fallacy: “it does not follow”. The premise does not
lead to the conclusion.
• Example: “climate has changed naturally in the past
therefore current warming must be natural”.
Premise
Conclusion
“The paleoclimate record shouts out
to us that, far from being selfstabilizing, the Earth's climate system
is an ornery beast which overreacts to
even small nudges.”
Wally Broeker
Impossible Expectations
• Demanding unrealistic standards of proof before
acting on the science
“0.3% consensus, not 97.1%
The latest paper apparently
showing 97% endorsement of
a consensus that more than
half of recent global warming
was anthropogenic really
shows only 0.3% endorsement
of that now-dwindling
consensus.”
CHRISTOPHER MONCKTON
Cherry Picking
Consensus
Conspiracy!
Climategate
Conspiracy Theory
Two distinctive traits of conspiracy theories:
1. Ascribe omnipotent power to the conspiracy
Conspiracy Theory
Two distinctive traits of conspiracy theories:
1. Ascribe omnipotent power to the conspiracy
2. Evidence against the conspiracy is proof of the
conspiracy
“Even though hand-picked
Dana
Rohrabacher,
Republican
Congressman
panels of their peers held a
“kangaroo court” and loudly
proclaimed that there had
been no wrongdoing, public
confidence was justifiably
shaken.”
Summary
Fight sticky ideas with stickier ideas
SUCCES
(Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, Story)
FLICC
(Fake Experts, Logical Fallacies, Impossible Expectations,
Cherry Picking, Conspiracy Theories)
www.skepticalscience.com
John Cook
Global Change Institute,
University of Queensland
Web: http://www.skepticalscience.com
Email: [email protected]