Transcript CLIMSAVE_Socio-economic_Scenarios_Presentation

Climate change integrated
assessment methodology for
cross-sectoral adaptation and
vulnerability in Europe
Socio-economic scenarios incorporated into the Integrated
Assessment Platform and stakeholder integrated research
For further information contact Marc Gramberger (email: [email protected])
and kasper Kok (email: [email protected]) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)
Funded under the European Commission
Seventh Framework Programme
Contract Number: 244031
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Scenarios
…help us to understand the different ways in which the future
might develop.
…can be utilised to evaluate and change current thinking and
improve decision-making.
… are developed in the CLIMSAVE project to integrate
knowledge and enhance solutions-oriented ‘out of the box’
thinking across:
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– expertise areas (stakeholders and researchers)
– disciplines
– a wider range of factors, sectors and actors
… have been developed in the CLIMSAVE project as socioeconomic scenarios using the Story-And-Simulation (SAS)
approach, separate from Climate Change projections.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Story-And-Simulation approach
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Qualitative stories developed by stakeholders are iteratively
linked to quantitative models.
Socio-economic scenarios are developed during stakeholder
workshops using expert-determined methods and guided by
professional facilitators.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Socio-economic scenarios
• Sketch a number of credible future outlooks of socioeconomic developments, and their potential effects on
climate change adaptation.
• Were developed together with stakeholders through a
series of workshops:
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– 3 workshops on the European level with a carefully defined
cross-European selection of stakeholders;
– 3 workshops on a regional level with Scotland as the case
study and with a carefully defined cross-selection of Scottish
stakeholders;
– 1 shared learning and exchange session between the
European and Scottish levels.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
CLIMSAVE stakeholder workshops
Workshop
Date
Europe – Workshop 1
10 - 12 May 2011
Bruges, Belgium
Europe – Workshop 2
6 - 8 February 2012
Prague, Czech Republic
Participants Main aims
(number)
19
1. Qualitative scenario development
2. Quantification of key variables
11
1. Finalisation of storylines
2. Review quantitative variables
3. Identify adaptation options
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Europe – Workshop 3
3 - 4 December 2012
Edinburgh, UK
12
1. Interacting with the Integrated Assessment Platform
2. Developing and testing adaptation options and strategies
3. Assess and discuss multi-scale robustness of options (jointly
done with participants from the Scottish case)
Scotland – Workshop 1
27 - 28 June 2011
Edinburgh, UK
24
1. Qualitative scenario development
2. Quantification of key variables
Scotland – Workshop 2
27 - 28 February 2012
Edinburgh, UK
19
1. Finalisation of storylines
2. Review quantitative variables
3. Identify adaptation options
Scotland – Workshop 3
3 - 4 December 2012
Edinburgh, UK
15
1. Interacting with the Integrated Assessment Platform
2. Developing and testing adaptation options and strategies
3. Assess and discuss multi-scale robustness of options (jointly
done with participants from the European case)
Source: Gramberger et al. (2013) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation
research. Climatic Change (under review).
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Stakeholder Integrated Research
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Source: Gramberger et al. (2013) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation
research. Climatic Change (under review).
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Stakeholder Integrated Research (2)
• Results in CLIMSAVE:
– Developing qualitative scenarios in the form of stories
enables developing valuable results in a participatory
process involving a broad range of stakeholders from
different backgrounds, expertise and professions;
– The qualitative scenarios are an excellent basis to stimulate
discussion, shared learning and ultimately identification of
solutions to climate change adaptation challenges; and
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– Stakeholders quantify the resulting stories, which serve as
an important input for the modelling in the CLIMSAVE
Integrated Assessment Platform, bringing together
quantitative projections and qualitative storylines.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
European CLIMSAVE scenarios
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Scottish CLIMSAVE scenarios
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results: Stories
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results: Dynamics and graphs
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Dynamics for GDP –
Should I Stay or should I Go scenario
Cognitive Map –
We are the World scenario
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results: Model parameter estimates
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results: Incorporation in the IA Platform
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results: Robust adaptation options
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Stakeholder satisfaction
• Stakeholders generally agreed that the scenario-building
process as a whole was useful for developing climate
change adaptation strategies:
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Stakeholder satisfaction (2)
• Across all three workshops the professional facilitation was
very positively evaluated by both European as well as
Scottish stakeholders:
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Recommendations
• Stakeholder Integrated Research is able to tackle
challenges for stakeholder involvement in scientific
research:
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– Enables a very close link between stakeholder contribution and
research through participatory integration of stakeholders in the
research process;
– Provides successful identification and selection of stakeholders;
– Enables stakeholders to provide substantial insights and useful
knowledge and perspective relevant to the scientific endeavor
through the design and professional facilitation of the engagement
process; and
– Enables to maintain stakeholder interest during the entire
engagement process.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Recommendations (results)
• The Story-And-Simulation approach was largely
successfully implemented.
• Stories remain a crucial product.
• Additional products were highly complementary and
therefore useful.
• Most adaptation options were related to natural and
manufactured capital.
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