Transcript Overview of Integrated Assessment and Modelling

Integrated Assessment and Modelling:
Introduction to training exercises
RICHARD WARRICK
International Global Change Institute (IGCI)
University of Waikato
New Zealand
This presentation will:
• Provide an overview of integrated
assessment and modelling
• Describe the SimCLIM system for
national and sub-national assessments
• Introduce the hands-on training session
Part 1:
Integrated Assessment and
Models
- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -
Integrated Assessment Models
What is meant by “assessment”?
- Climate impacts and adaptation -
Assessment Process
Assessments
Technical analyses and studies
FUTURE
PAST
What do we know?
What don’t we know?
What needs to be done?
Priority gaps and needs?
Products, e.g.
time
National Communications
Project development
- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -
Integrated Assessment Models
What is meant by “integrated”
assessment?
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Vertically
integrated
Global
Global
Warming
Regional
wetter
Local
sectoral
agriculture
drier
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Vertically
integrated
Global
Global
Warming
Regional
wetter
Local
sectoral
agriculture
drier
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Horizontally
integrated
Global
Global
Warming
Regional
Local
sectoral
coastal
agriculture
water
Coastal Risk
Drought Risk
Flood Risk
health
Epidemic Risk
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Global
Fully
integrated
Global
Warming
Regional
wetter
drier
Local
sectoral
coastal
agriculture
water
Coastal Risk
Drought Risk
Flood Risk
health
Epidemic Risk
- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -
Integrated Assessment Models
What is meant by integrated
assessment “model”?
Key components of full-scale IAMs
Atmospheric Composition
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Climate & Sea Level
Climate
Ocean
•Temperature
•Sea level
Ocean Carbon
Cycle
Human Systems
Ecosystems
Energy System
Other Human
Systems
Terrestrial
Carbon Cycle
Unmanaged
Ecosystems
Agriculture,
Livestock &
Forestry
Coastal System
Crops & Forests
Hydrology
(Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996)
EXAMPLE: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
(NIES, Japan)
Study Area of AIM
(NIES, Japan)
End-to-end characterisation of IAMs
Energy System
Other
Emissions
Emissions
Agriculture
Atmospheric
Composition
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Ocean carbon
Cycle
Climate
Climate & Sea Level
Ocean
•Temperature
•Sea level
Hydrology
Coastal
System
Crops &
Forestry
Health &
other
Impacts
(Weyant et al., IPCC 1996)
EXAMPLE:
MAGICC/SCENGEN
Greenhouse gas emissions
MAGICC
Global mean temperature change
SCENGEN
Regional Scenarios of Climate Change
GCM patterns
Climatologies
Part 2:
The SimCLIM models
for national and sub-national assessments
The SimCLIM Models
(the “first generation” structure)
 MAGICC
outputs
 Other
outputs
Global-Mean
Temperature and SeaLevel Projections
National Climate Change
Scenario Generator
 Userdefined
model
parameters
Sectoral Impact Models
Coast
Agriculture
Effects
Water
Health
 Climatologies
 GCM patterns
 Synthetic
changes
SimCLIM Models
PACCLIM (Pacific Island region)
VANDACLIM (island version)
VANDACLIM (fictitious country)
FijiClim (Viti Levu)
CHAMP (New Zealand)
CANCLIM (Canada)
BDCLIM (Bangladesh)
HOTSPOTS (NZ)
OZCLIM (Australia)
TOPOCLIM (NZ)
CLIMPACTS (New Zealand)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
For Example: FIJICLIM
Climate:
Mean Annual Precipitation
2070
Example: FijiCLIM, Dalo Suitability
Impacts:
Current Average
Climate
El Nino Drought Climate Change 2050
with El Nino Drought
GREEN = highly suitable soils and climate
BROWN = least suitable
SimCLIMs can be used to:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Describe baseline climates
Examine current climate variability and extremes
Assess risks – present and future
Investigate adaptation – present and future
Create climate change scenarios
Conduct sensitivity analyses
Project sectoral impacts of climate and sea level change
Examine risks and uncertainties
Facilitate integrated impact analyses
A customised, prototype SimCLIM
model can be developed for
AIACC projects
Data Required:
• Spatially interpolated monthly climatologies
• Time-series climate data for stations (monthly or daily)
• Downscaled, standardised patterns of monthly
temperature and precipitation changes from GCMs.
• Digital elevation model (optional)
Part 3:
The “hands-on” training
exercise
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Objective
To gain practical experience in:
• selected elements of integrated assessment
• using an Integrated Assessment Model
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
The “Republic of Vanda Islands”
(an imaginary country)
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Using:
The Island Version
Developed by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Problem Focus: Risk Reduction
• Assess current climatic risks
• Assess adequacy of current adaptation to climatic
variability and extremes
• Develop scenarios of future climate changes
• Assess possible future changes in risk
• Assess adaptation options for reducing future
risks
• Estimate incremental cost ratios
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Choice of 4 Training Groups
•
Coastal Flood Risk (storm surges)
•
Agricultural Drought Risk
•
Risks of Groundwater shortage
•
Drought risk to water supply
Aosis
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Sessions
• All four training groups in each session
• No more than four persons per group
• Each session repeated four times
The End…
Thank you for your attention