Transcript Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 - Convention on Biological Diversity

The information behind
GBO-3:
• 110 National Reports
• Biodiversity Indicators
Partnership
• Biodiversity Futures Study
• 500 scientific papers
• Open review process
GBO-3 is an output of the
processes under the Convention.
Parties to the Convention, other
Governments, and observer
organizations have shaped the
Outlook
GBO-3 has been prepared by the
Secretariat of the Convention on
Biological Diversity, in close
collaboration UNEP-WCMC.
The production of GBO-3 was
enabled by financial contributions
from Canada, the European
Union, Germany, Japan, Spain
and the United Kingdom, as well
as UNEP.
Structure
•
Biodiversity in 2010
•
Biodiversity Futures for
the 21st Century
•
Towards a Strategy for
Reducing Biodiversity Loss
2010 Biodiversity Target
“to achieve by 2010 a significant
reduction of the current rate of
biodiversity loss at the global,
regional and national level as a
contribution to poverty alleviation
and to the benefit of all life on
Earth”
The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met
• No sub-target completely achieved
• Most indicators negative
• No government claims success
• Direct pressures constant or increasing
•
The global Living Planet
Index (LPI), has declined by
more than 30% since 1970,
•
The Tropical LPI has
declined by almost 60%.
•
The Temperate LPI showed
an increase of 15%,
reflecting the recovery of
some species populations in
temperate regions
Source: WWF/ZSL
Source: WWF/ZSL
• The Red List Index (RLI) for all
these species groups is
decreasing.
• Coral species are moving most
rapidly towards greater
extinction risk
• Amphibians are, on average,
the group most threatened.
Source: IUCN
Livestock breeds at risk
Source: FAO
Protected areas increasing …
Source: UNEPWCMC
Source: UNEP-WCMC
…but large areas still under-represented
Source: UNEP-WCMC
Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all:
•Wetlands, salt
marshes, coral reefs,
seagrass beds and sea
ice continue to decline
•Extensive
fragmentation of forests
and rivers
• Mangrove decline
slowing (except in Asia)
•The condition of many
terrestrial habitats is
deteriorating
(degrading)
Source: NSIDC
Amazon loss slowing in Brazil
Source: INPE
State
Pressure
Response
Source:
Butchart
etal 2010
Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards
the 2010 biodiversity target:
Key Findings:
• Projections show continuing and accelerating extinctions,
habitat loss, changes in distribution and abundance of biodiversity
• High risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and degradation of
services from tipping points
•Loss preventable and even reversible with strong, urgent action
What is a tipping point?
Threshold
Time lag
Self-perpetuating
Long lasting/hard to reverse
Tipping Point – Amazon dieback
Current Path
•Widespread shift from forest to
savanna resulting from the
Interaction of deforestation, climate
change and fires
•Becomes more likely at 20%-30%
deforestation
•Self-perpetuating
•Regional rainfall and global climate
impacts, massive biodiversity loss
Alternative Path
•Keep deforestation below 20%30% of original forest area
•Minimize use of fire for clearing
•Keep global climate warming
below 2-3 degrees
Tipping Points – Freshwater eutrophication
Current Path
•The buildup of nutrients from
fertilizers and sewage shifts
freshwater bodies into a
eutrophic state causing:
•Low oxygen levels and
widespread kills of plants, fish,
invertebrates
•Loss of nutrition from fisheries,
toxic blooms make water unfit for
drinking or recreation
Alternative Path
•Reduce nutrient inputs from
sewage, detergents and
agriculture
•Reforestation of watersheds
•Restoration of wetlands
•Economic incentives to close
nutrient cycle on farms
Tipping Points – Coral reef collapse
Current Path
•Bleaching severe with
temperature rise great than ca.
2o C
•Ocean acidification prevents
corals forming skeletons
•Reefs become degraded and
algae-dominated
•Livelihood threat to hundreds of
millions through loss of fisheries
and tourism
Alternative Path
Reduce local stressors including:
•Destructive fishing practices
•Coastal pollution
•Over-exploitation of herbivores
such as sea urchins and fish
•Strict climate mitigation to keep
CO2 levels below 450 ppm and
2oC.
Broadening action
on biodiversity
There is a greater
range of options
than previously
recognized
Source: Leadley and Pereira etal 2010
Scenarios for land use
Business as usual
Carbon tax including
land use
Carbon tax on fossil
fuels and industry
only
Source: Wise
etal 2009
Address climate change and biodiversity loss in close co-ordination, and with equal
priority, if the most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.
Key strategy elements:
•Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet
growing demand
•Use of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidies
•Strategic planning
•Restoration of ecosystems
•Equitable sharing of benefits from use of and access to genetic
resources and associated traditional knowledge
•Support and facilitate local action
•Communication, education and awareness-raising
The action taken over the next
decade or two will determine
whether the relatively stable
environmental conditions on
which human civilization has
depended for the past 10,000
years will continue beyond
this century.
If we fail to use this
opportunity, many ecosystems
on the planet will move into
new, unprecedented states in
which the capacity to provide
for the needs of present and
future generations is highly
uncertain.
For further
information on
Global Biodiversity
Outlook 3 and
related products
please see:
www.cbd.int/GBO3