Transcript Agricultural_Sustainability[1]

Agricultural Sustainability
Cathal O’Donoghue
Teagasc Rural Economy and Development Programme
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Overview
Agriculture and Hunger Globally
 Agriculture and the Environment
 Biofuels
 Biotechnology
 Agriculture in Ireland
 Sustaining Farm Livelihoods

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Feeding the World
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Malthusian catastrophe
Malthusian
catastrophe
 Return
to subsistence
once population
growth exceeds
agricultural
productivity growth
- Malthus (1798), An Essay on the
Principle of Population
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7
Billions

6
5
4
3
2
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source UN
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Percentage Under-nourished

Despite increasing
World Population



Falling Percentage Undernourished
Agricultural Revolution
Green Revolution


Science based growth
2%+ cereal yield growth
per annum
Source FAO
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Future Population Growth
However
 Population
continues
to rise
 More people – 6.5 to 9
billion people by 2050
 More food production
– need to double grain
production by 2050
 Continued pressure
Billions

12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1950
Source UN
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Constant-fertility variant
High variant
Low variant
Medium variant
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World Population
95% of World Population Growth in
Developing World
Source UK Food Futures
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Declining Yield Growth

Yield growth
declining
 Soil
deterioration due
to overuse of
chemicals and
industrial pollution
 Biggest gains already
achieved
Source USDA-ERS
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Declining Hectares per Capita
Although number of hectares of
cultivated arable land increased by
10% 1960-2005, Per Capita land
halved.
UK Footprint – 5.4 ha pp
China Footprint – 0.5 ha pp
Source UK Food Futures
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Global Food Price Index

Food Crisis 2008







Price Spike due to
Economic Growth
Low cereal stocks due to
bio-energy
Drought
Speculation
Policy – export bans
Price Spike 2010


Just starting
Russian stop exports of
grain
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source FAO
2010
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Under-nourished

Resulted in large
increase (150m) in
under-nourished
 Markets
and Scientific
Innovation take time to
meet market needs
 Will we see a return in
2011?
Source FAO
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Food Price Spikes = Civil Unrest

Higher Prices
 More
Riots and Civil
Unrest
Source IFPRI
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- Under nourishment not only about production
of food – Distribution, affordability and access
to food also important!!
- Sen’s Poverty and Famines: An Essay on
Entitlement and Deprivation (1981)
Where are the hungry?
- Under-nourishment still a major world issue !


Most Hungry in
Asia
Higher Proportion
in Africa
Source FAO
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Other Pressures

Nutrient Transition
wealth – more meat
 Obesity and Malnutrition in same countries
 Food Waste – US wastes 27% of food –
enough to feed 80 million people
 More
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Agriculture and the Environment
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Global Temperature
By 2100 Global Temperature is likely
to be 1.8 to 4oC Above 1990 Level
The scale of warming depends on emissions:
Low scenario 1.1 – 2.9oC Best estimate 1.8 – 4.0oC High scenario 2.4 – 6.4oC
IPCC (2007)
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Impacts of climate
change
0°C
Food
Water
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in
developed regions
some high latitude regions
Small mountain glaciers
disappear – water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Significant decreases in water
availability in many areas, including
Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Weather
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
Source IPCC
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Land Cover
Only 23% of arable land suitable for
rain fed agriculture
Limited capacity for extra cultivated
land – need yield growth to increase
production
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Climate induced percentage change in
production in 2050: Rainfed maize
Climate Change:
Global production: -16%
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Source: IFPRI
Water Scarcity 2000
Significant Water Pressure
1kg Meat – 15m3 water
1kg Grain – 0.4-3m3 water
Irrigation important however much
water is not drained from sustainable
sources (e.g. groundwater)
More food production – need to double
grain production by 2050 - More water
1/3 of the world’s population live in basinsfor
that
foodhave
– if practices
to deal with
don’twater
change,
scarcity
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water
needs double
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water
Management
in Agriculture, 2007
Biofuels
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Food and Energy

Food and Energy
Prices linked
 As
input to food
production
 As a substitute for oil

Bioenergy crops
Source: IFPRI
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Bio-fuel consumption

High oil price (Plus subsidies)



Objective – reduce Carbon
Emissions via sequestration
when growing
However



Land use change to increase biofuel production
Land use change, fertiliser use and
other energy inputs may result in
higher emissions than fossil fuels
Substitution of land from food
and feed reduce food supply
and can increase world food
prices
Waste from Forestry and Animal
processing more efficient in
Ireland
Source UK Food Futures
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Biotechnology
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Biotechnology

Selective Breeding
 1000’s

of years improving breeding
Genetic Analysis - Genomics
 Understanding
traits associated with genetics can
lead to improved breeding and performance

Genetic Modification
 Specific
changes introduced into their DNA by genetic
engineering techniques
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Genetic Modification

Pest Resistance
 Reduces

Herbicide Tolerance
 Reduces

costs associated with weeding
Cold Tolerance
 Resistant

need for pesticides
to frost
Water Tolerance
 Allow
for higher crop yields in areas of higher or low
moisture levels
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Genetic Modification

Concerns


Cross-contamination
Uncertainty and risk in relation to
health due to relative recent
introduction
 As technologies are patented,
there is a shift from public good
provided research to profit
making, increasing economic
strength of multi-nationals

Currently not grown in Ireland

However GM products used in
many food stuffs
 GM Maize grown in 7 EU
countries – Spain has biggest
share
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Agriculture in Ireland
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Agri-Food in Ireland



Relatively small primary sector ~ 2.5% GDP
However important component of processing sector
~ 7%
Main Sectors



Beef, Dairy, Sheep, Pigs, Tillage
Most food exported
Agri-food and bio-economy sector a major source of
net export earnings



Given largely Irish ownership with profits kept in Ireland,
Better domestic connectivity and so fewer imports,
16% of exports, BUT 32% of net earnings (Riordan, 2008)
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Economic Issues in Agriculture
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1994
1999
2004
2009
180
Ti
lla
ge
Sh
ee
p
Family Farm Income by Sector
D
ai
ry
&
C
at
C
tl e
at
tle
R
ea
rin
g
C
at
tle
O
th
er
Family Farm Income
D
ai
ry
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
Source: Teagasc National Farm Survey
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Cost Price Squeeze
160
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
1994
1999
Ag Output Price
2004
Ag Input Price
Market Power?
140
2009
CPI
Source: CSO
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2003
2005
Milk Consumer Price
2007
2009
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2011
Milk Producer Price
Animal Production and the Environment
Climate change – minor to positive
impact on Irish Agriculture
Agriculture can also impact on
environment.
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Contribution to GHG’s
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Agriculture a Significant
Contributor
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However

Global Food Security


Carbon Leakage


If we reduce, will there be any positive impact if more rainforest is
converted to food production?
Incidence of Emissions



Should Ireland reduce agricultural output?
Production or
Consumption
On-farm mitigation measures
Relatively low stocking rate  more intensive agriculture combined with
new forestry
 However cannot currently offset land use changes against agricultural
emissions

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Many other less costly (and beneficial)
remedies should be exploited before
reducing herd
Marginal Abatement Cost
(Economy)
And target the many options where negative or low marginal abatement costs exist
Source: McKinsey/SEAI
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Nutrients required for sustainable agricultural production
However, Excess nutrients in soil (fertiliser and/or manure) can have
negative implications for water quality and climate change (N2O)
Nitrogen
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Reduced Fertiliser Usage
Fertiliser Use - P
Fertiliser Use - N
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Significant policy induced interventions
- Investment in Facilities
- REPS
- Calendar Farming
- Nitrates Directive
Farm Interventions
Proportion of Farms in REPS
0.6
0.5
0.4
Average Investment on Farms as a
% of Farm Income
0.3
1
0.1
0.8
0
0.6
1994
0.2
1999
2004
2009
0.4
Prohibited Periods
0.2
0
1994
1999
2004
2009
Investment in Farm Buildings and Improvement
Grants
Source: Teagasc National Farm Survey
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Sustaining Farm Household
Incomes
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Declining proportion (40% in 1996 to 19% in 2009) of farms are viable
- ie can generate income equivalent to minimum agricultural wage ~
€17.5k + 5% return on Assets
- A further 40% are sustainable with off-farm employment
- Without subsidies like NZ, less than 2% of farms in 2009 (7% in 2008)
would
have been
viable > Min Ag Wage + 5% Return on
0.6(Farm
Income
- A further 52% are sustainable with off-farm employment
Viable Farms without subsidies
Assets)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1996
1998
2000
Viable
2002
2004
2006
2008
Viable (No Subsidies)
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Farm Viability
Viable
Sustainable
Income
Challenged
Viable
Comprises
 25%
 43% Dairy, 30% Cattle,
15% Sheep, 11% Tillage
 13% over 65
 Commercial end of
sector
 On-farm business
Sustainable
needsComprises
 35%
 11% Dairy, 65% Cattle,
17% Sheep, 7% Tillage
 5% over 65
 Multi-income sources
 On-farm and Off-farm
needs
Income Challenged
Comprises
 40%
 25% Dairy, 53% Cattle,
16% Sheep, 6% Tillage
 41% over 65
 Severe Income issues
 Income Generation
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Needs
Thank You!
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