Transcript Theory 1 - Teagasc

Climate Change and Food Security:
Research on Adaptation in Ethiopia
Salvatore Di Falco
University of Geneva
Switzerland
[email protected]
Outline
• Background
• Use of survey data for policy relevant research
• Case study => adaptation pay off and identification of
the “best” strategies for food security
• Data needs
• Environment for Development (EfD): a success story
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1970-2004 (IPCC 2007)
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• Current agreements to limit emissions, even if
implemented, will not stabilize atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases and climate
change
• Crop productivity to decrease “for even small local
temperature increases (1 – 2° C)” (IPCC 2007)
• In many African countries => “yields from rain fed
agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020”
(IPCC 2007, p.10)
•4 Serious implications for food security
How would the future look like? (IPCC, 2007)
Can we do without adaptation?
•Probably not
•The identification of climate change adaptation strategies is
therefore vital in sub Saharan Africa
1.Autonomous adaptation => pay off?
2.What is the impact on food security of farmers’ decision to adopt
some strategies in response to changes in temperature and/or
precipitation?
3.What are the driving forces behind farmers’ decisions to adapt to
climate change?
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Case study: Ethiopia Nile River Basin
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• Agriculture accounts for about 40% of GDP, and 90% of
exports, and 85% of employment (MoFED, 2007)
• Ethiopian agriculture is heavily dependent on natural
rainfall, with irrigation agriculture accounting for less than
1% of the total cultivated land in the country
• Ethiopia suffers from extreme weather events:
- frequent droughts (1965, 1974, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1990,
1991, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2009);
- recent flooding (1997, and 2006)
Food insecurity
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Data
• Partners: IFPRI, USA; Ethiopian Development Research Institute
• 1,000 crops farms (2,823 plots)
• 2004 and 2005 => Smallholders Agriculture
• Area: Ethiopia Nile River Basin
• Great survey on the issue!
• Use of farm specific weather data
Thin Plate Spline method of spatial interpolation for imputation
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of farm and plot specific rainfall and temperature
• Perceptions and adaptation
• Extension services, tenure security, information + others
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• In other 8 African countries
Issues for quantitative analysis
• Systematically different between adapters and non adapters
• Some farmers are better than others…
• Unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm may
affect both the adaptation strategy decision and net revenues
=> inconsistent parameter estimates
• Self selection
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Ideally, we would like to have…
Control Group
Quantity produced
by farmer X
if DID NOT adapt
Treatment Group
Quantity produced
by farmer X
if DID adapt
Compare the expected food productivity
under the actual and counterfactual cases
that farmer X adapted or not to climate change
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Statistical tools: Di Falco et al. 2011
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What Adaption to Climate Change actually is?
What are the “best” strategies that can be
implemented to deal with climatic change in
the field
What are the economic implications of
different strategies?
Identify the most successful strategies by
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implementing a counterfactual analysis
Table 1. Climate change adaptation strategies
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Soil conservation
Changing crop varieties
Water strategies
Building water harvesting scheme
Water conservation
Irrigating more
Other strategies
Early-late planting
Migrating to urban area
Finding off-farm job
Leasing the land
Changing from crop to livestock
Reduce number of livestock
Adoption of new technology
Frequency %
1,397
72.27
1,186
61.36
309
82
279
15.99
4.24
14.43
176
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132
3
71
121
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9.11
1.19
6.83
0.16
3.67
6.26
1.35
Strategies
(1) changing crop varieties only;
(2) implementing only water strategies such as water harvesting, irrigation
or water conservation;
(3) implementing only soil conservation;
(4) implementing water strategies and changing crop varieties;
(5) implementing soil conservation and changing crop varieties
(6) implementing water strategies and soil conservation
(7) implementing water strategies, soil conservation, and changing crop
varieties;
(8) implementing other strategies.
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Switching Regression Model
(Di Falco et al. 2011; Di Falco and Veronesi;
2012)
• Two stage procedure
1. We estimate the probability of choosing a particular
strategy (selection model where a representative farm
household chooses to implement a specific strategy)
2. The information stemming from the first step is used on
farm revenue, where farm net revenues are regressed
against climatic variables and other control variables
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How do we get there?
• First stage of the model tells you exactly that
• Barriers and drivers for autonomous adaptation
• Besides climate and past shocks
• Trees as tenure security is important driver
• The dissemination of information on changing crops and
implement conservation strategies are very important –
increase awareness
• Extension services are very important in determining the
implementation of adaptation strategies (also training)
Future research needs
• More (and better) surveys – involvement of local
institutions (academia, research, training)
• Going back to areas previously interviewed
• Nile Basin: How things have changed
• How perception have changed
• How the barriers and drivers have changed
• Dynamic implication of adaptation strategies
• Long term vs short term responses
A platform is necessary: EfD
• Environmental economics and advocacy in developing countries
for 20 years => SIDA (Swedish Development funded)
• Weak and underfunded academic institutions
• Academic brain-drain
• Government agencies unable to attract and maintain academic
capacity for policy analysis
• Weak interface between academia and government
• Two pillars: building capacity (PhD programs and courses)
• Policy relevant research => on the field
• EfD centers
Characteristics of EfD centers
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Strong research capacity and facilities
Connection to a graduate program
Strong policy interface
Efficient administration
Ethiopia – EDRI/Addis Ababa University
Kenya –University of Nairobi/KIPPRA
China - Peking University
Tanzania – University of Dar es Salaam
South Africa – University of Cape Town
Central America – CATIE
Sweden – EEU/UoG
USA – Resources for the Future
Conclusions
• Adaptation in the field => food security
• Understanding what can be done to facilitate it
• Combination of surveys, methods
• Randomized controlled trials and field experiments
can complement
• Building capacity is essential to face challenges of
climate change
• Follow and expand experiences like EfD
Thank you very much
[email protected]
other
strategy k. We
specify the
latent variable as
Multinomial
endogenous
switching
regression model First Stage
*
(1) Aij = Vij + h ij = Zi α j + h ij
ì1 iff
ïï
with Ai = í M
ï M iff
ïî
Ai*1 > max( Aik* ) or e i1 <0
k ¹1
M
M
A > max( A ) or e iM <0
*
iM
k¹M
*
ik
if strategy j provides expected net revenues greater
than
anyis
other
strategy
k  j i will choose strategy j in
that
farm
household
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(2)
mean temperature and rainfall
if strategy j provide
Second stage: Multinomial Endogenous
Switching
• if the error terms of the selection model ij are
correlated with the error terms uij of the net revenues
functions (3a)-(3m), the expected values of uij
conditional on the sample selection are nonzero
• Estimates will be inconsistent by OLS
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