Transcript Thailand

What does Literature say about
Disaster and Climate Risks in
Thailand?
2 November 2011
Jerry Velasquez
Climate Vulnerability Monitor
2010 – the State of the Climate
Crisis, DARA, 2010
Unless measures are taken, in the next 20 years
will see major economic impacts in Thailand
• The largest developed economies in the world,
including the US, Japan, and Germany are
among the worst affected in absolute terms.
• But large developing economies such as Russia,
Brazil, and India, as well as Egypt in North Africa
and Thailand and Indonesia in Southeast Asia
also face significant burdens.
• Overall, the 10 countries bearing the largest
burdens will collectively face 75% of economic
losses in absolute terms.
Thailand is ranked 5th among countries with the largest
total climate-related economic losses by 2030
Predicted impact of climate change in Thailand is high,
with economic stress acute by 2030
Climate Change Vulnerability
Mapping for Southeast Asia,
IDRC, 2009
SEA Climate hazard hotspots and
dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots
Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam
Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam
Cyclones, droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam
Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area
Sea level rise, floods
Southern regions of Thailand
Droughts, floods
Philippines
Cyclones, landslides, floods, droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia
Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island,
Indonesia
Droughts, floods, landslides, sea level rise
Thailand multiple climate hazard index medium, as
compared to its neighbors
Adaptive capacity to climate change of Thailand is high
Tropical cyclone frequency is low in Thailand (event per year
from 1980-2003)
Flood frequency high in certain parts of Thailand (event per
year from 1980-2001)
Drought frequency high in certain parts of Thailand (event per
year from 1980-2000)
Landslide exposure in Thailand is low
Sea level rise - 5-m inundation zone is high in Bangkok area
Natural and Conflict related
Hazards in Asia Pacific, OCHA,
2009
• Thailand coping
capacity is high
• Ten components of
coping capacity:
– Hazard evaluation
– Consequence and
vulnerability assessment
– Awareness-raising
activities
– Sectoral regulations
– Structural defences
– Continuity planning
– Early warning
– Emergency response
– Insurance and disaster
funds
– Reconstruction and
rehabilitation planning
Coping capacity to disasters of Thailand high compared to its
neighbors
Protecting Development Gains,
Asia Pacific Disasters Report
2010 ESCAP, UNISDR, 2010
In 30 years, Thailand had 101 disasters, 11,730 people
killed, more than 53 million people affected and close
to US$ 6 billion in losses due to disasters
Thailand had 54
million people
affected by
disasters over
30 years
1.3 percent of Thailand population (800,000 people) is
exposed to floods. Thailand is ranked 6th Asia Pacific
wide in terms of exposure of population to floods
1.8 percent of Thailand’s GDP ($3 billion) is exposed to
floods. Thailand is ranked 6th Asia Pacific wide in terms
of exposure of economy to floods
Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN
Countries Disaster Risks
Assessment, UNISDR, World
Bank, 2010
Flood is the
dominant
hazard in
Thailand,
with 1.5
events per
year.
Floods cause the most economic damage to
Thailand, with an annual loss of US$ 164 million. The
5-year return period probabilistic loss is US$ 420
million, US$ 1.2 billion for 20-year return period, and
US$ 3.2 billion for a 200 year return period
The Economics of Climate
Change in Southeast Asia: A
Regional Review, Asian
Development Bank, 2009
Agriculture contributed to a 10.7% of the GDP in
Thailand and accounted for 42.3% of employment
Thailand has the highest ratio of annual freshwater withdrawal to total internal
water resources (41.5%), which indicates the vulnerability of Thailand to
changes in water resources
With climate change, the water balance has become an annual problem and, in
recent years, an increasingly critical one. Changes in rainfall patterns and the
frequency and intensity of rainfall have affected the quantity and quality of water
resources from some watersheds (for example, Chaophraya Basin) down to
rivers and estuaries
Rainfall in Thailand also decreased in the past 3–5 decades
compared to the first half of the last century. Rainfall intensity
has also increased considerably.
In Thailand, extreme weather events include prolonged
floods and droughts, landslides, and strong storm surges.
These extreme events have become more frequent and
damaging.
Coastal Erosion
• Thailand’s 2,667-km shoreline is under serious threat from
coastal erosion, which is occurring at the rate of 15–25
meters per year in some places. Coastal erosion is a
significant problem along the Gulf of Thailand from Trat
province in the east to Narathiwat province in the south. A
serious case has been reported in the small coastal village
of Khun Samutchine, in Samut Prakan province south of
Bangkok. The people of the Khun Samutchine settlement
previously enjoyed living in a diverse natural habitat with
wetlands, mangrove swamps, and marshes that were
home to a wide variety of flora and fauna. Due to coastal
erosion and an advancing sea levels, most of these areas
are now deforested, degraded, and devastated, and
groundwater resources are already contaminated with
seawater. Many families have been forced to abandon their
coastal homes, as few people can afford to continue
rebuilding houses washed away regularly by the sea.
Storm Surges
• Also in Thailand, storm surges have
become stronger and more frequent.
Certain spots along the inner gulf (for
example, areas along the upper south
around Prachuab Khirikan province in
southern Thailand) and the eastern tip of
the south (in Narathiwas and Songkhla
provinces) have been eroded by strong
winds and the changing direction of
seawater flows.
Its projected that Thailand will have less rain due to climate change
Climate Risks and Adaptation
in Asian Coastal Megacities,
ADB, JICA, World Bank,
2010
Importance of BMR
• The Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is the
economic center of Thailand. It is the headquarters for all
of Thailand’s large commercial banks and financial
institutions. The area to the east of Bangkok and Samut
Prakarn is also an important industrial zone.
• In 2006, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the
Bangkok Municipal Region was 3,352 billion baht, or 43
percent of the country’s GDP (7,830 billion baht).
• The annual average growth rate was 7.04 percent, and
per capita GDP was 311,225 baht.
• The current official population of Bangkok is estimated to
be about 10 million people (based on 2007 estimates)
with an estimated growth rate of .64 percent between
2003–07.
In 2007, 0.6 percent or 88,361 people in the BMR were poor. The poverty
line for the Bangkok municipal region was 1,638 baht ($49) per person
per month in 2007. The number of poor is an estimate and does not
include unregistered people. Most of the poor live in condensed housing
and are unregistered.
Main climate-related drivers of
flooding
• Severe flooding in Bangkok is associated with
heavier than normal rainfall occurring over
several months during the monsoon period over
the Chao Phraya watershed. The flooding can
last several weeks to over a month.
• Intense short-duration rainfall over the city can
cause localized flooding that normally lasts for
less than 24 hours.
• Bangkok is not subject to direct hits from tropical
typhoons or cyclones.
Non-climate drivers of flooding
• land subsidence
• Deforestation
• urbanization, and removal of natural
attenuation
• basins (like wetlands) also contribute to
flooding
Urban and land use planning in
Bangkok
• Modern urban land use planning in Bangkok started in
the 1950s. Bangkok’s inner city contains the Grand
Palace, government offices, major universities and
educational establishments, and 2-to-4-story row houses
that are used as commercial and residential units. The
inner city is a national historic conservation area where
construction of high-rise buildings is prohibited.
• Urban growth in Bangkok, however, has progressed in a
sometimes ad hoc manner and without a unified plan
linking it to the surrounding areas.
• To remedy this problem, the government has developed
a 50-year regional spatial plan (finished in 2007) that
foresees growth of the surrounding areas. This plan also
provides for significant environmental protection and
wetland areas.
Land Subsidence
• Historic land subsidence in Bangkok has reduced from
highs of 10 cm/year to 1 to 2 cm/year over the period of
1978 to 2007, and from 2002 to 2007 the rate had
declined to 0.97 cm/year.
• Due to government efforts to control groundwater
pumping, the average subsidence rate would continue to
decline by 10 percent/year, assuming that current efforts
to reduce groundwater extraction continue.
• Estimate of land subsidence by 2050 varied from 5 to 30
cm depending on the location.
Flood projections
• For instance, the current (2008) estimated annual
inundated area in Bangkok and Samut Prakarn will
increase to 734 km2 in 2050 under the A1FI scenario for
a 1-in-30-year flood. That is a 30 percent increase.
• The inundation could be for varying depths and varying
number of days, but about 7 percent of these provinces
could remain under water for over a month
Maximum Water Depth for 1-in-30-year event, 2008 and 2050, A1FI
Floods will be more frequent - A flood event in 2008 that will
inundate 625 km2 happens once in 50 years, but in 2050, the
same flood will happen once every 15 years.
Floods will be more intense – A flood happening once every 15
years would increase from inundating about 450 km2 in 2008 to
625 km2 in 2050.
Impact of floods in the future
• By 2050, one in eight of the affected inhabitants
will be from the condensed housing areas where
most live below the poverty level.
• One-third of the total affected people may be
subjected to more than a half meter inundation
for at least one week.
Storm surge and sea level rise have relatively
small role in contributing to flooding in Bangkok
• There is a linear relationship between future precipitation
and flood volume in the Chao Phraya River. However, it
found that flood peak discharge in the Chao Phraya
River will increase by a larger percentage than
precipitation, due to unequal travel times of floods from
upstream catchments.
• Further, while storm surges and sea level rise are
important, they will have less effect on flooding in
Bangkok.
• While storm surges do occur in the Gulf of Thailand and
contribute to flooding the BMR area, it was estimated
that the flood-prone area in Bangkok and Samut Prakarn
will increase by about 2 percent due to a storm surge
striking the western coast of the Gulf of Thailand
World Risk Report, UNU,
2011
• Thailand has
moderate
risk rating,
and is ranked
85th in the
world
• Thailand has
low
susceptibility
and high
adaptive
capacity to
disasters
Global Assessment Report
on DRR, UNISDR, 2011
2010 GDP distribution in Thailand
Historical flood events 1970-2010
Flood risk for Thailand
Flood as observed
UNOSAT
Global Flood Model
UNEP/GRID-Geneva
Difference observed
versus modelled
Heavy rainfall over the
Indochina Peninsula for June
to September 2011, JMA,
2011
Four-month total precipitation from June to September 2011 was 120% – 180% of
the normal.
Four-month total precipitation amounts to 921mm (134% of the normal) at Chiang
Mai in northern Thailand and 1251mm (140%) at Bangkok (the capital of Thailand),
It is unusual that heavier-than-normal rainfall continued through the rainy season
over the entire area of the basins
The heavier-than-normal rainfall over the basin of the Chao Phraya River continued
in the first half of October 2011.