Transcript GEO Carbon - GEPW

GEO
CARBON
Toward a coordinated global carbon
observation and analysis system
A. Bombelli
GEOCARBON Project Manager
CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean
Center on Climate Change
Italy
Outline
• Why GEOCARBON?
• Short history (just 1 slide!) of “EU-Carbon” Project
• Link between GEOCARBON and GEO
• GEOCARBON overview + some first result
The Global Carbon Cycle
What’s missing?
The Global Carbon Cycle
coordination needed for global integration
The EU contribution to a global GEO carbon observing system
past
 FP5/FP6, CARBOEUROPE cluster, CarboAfrica, CarboOcean, others:
Experience put in place and/or enhance the EU carbon monitoring system;
improved knowledge of the European (and African) C-cycle.
 FP7, COCOS: coordinated European and global carbon relevant
Strategy initiatives; defined the GEO C-Strategy.
 FP7, ICOS: set up the infrastructure for a integrated and standardized
Infrastructure monitoring of C-cycle at global level, starting from Europe.
Present
 FP7, GEOCARBON: global coordination toward the design and
Coordination development of an Operational Global Integrated Carbon
Observation and Analysis System (built on EU projects’ experience).
Future
 ?
Operation (beyond research projects)
Priority: sustain operational infrastructures for earth observation (particularly in situ)
GEOCARBON
European Commission (EC) / Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)
Starting date: 01/10/2011
Duration: 36 months
Total funds: 8.6 M€ (6.6 M€ from EC)
Project Coordinator:
Prof. Riccardo Valentini
Euro-Mediterranean
Center for Climate Change
CMCC, Italy
European project but
global contribution!
To develop a coordinated Global Carbon Observation and
Analysis System, supporting the Group on Earth Observations
(GEO) toward building a Global Earth Observation System of
Systems (GEOSS) for carbon (last 3 years of the GEO WP).
&
Conceived in response to a FP7 call for proposals to support one EU project
specifically contributing to GEO at global level in the area of C-cycle.
Shaped around the GEO Work Plan + task CL-02, ‘Global Carbon Observations
and Analysis’, to meet the “carbon side of the GEO 2015 Target on Climate:
- better understanding of the global carbon cycle
- development and facilitation of a comprehensive (atmosphere, ocean,
land) global carbon observation and analysis system in support of
monitoring based decision-making and related environmental treaty
obligations.
Activities embedded in the task CL-02 and coordinated with the GEO
Secretariat and GEO global community monitoring C-cycle.
Different from previous EC “Carbon” projects: not just independent research
but a contribution to GEO!
GEO Task CL-02
GEOCARBON
linkages to GEO
– inAnalysis
practice:
Task CL-02, Global
Carbon Observation
and
Antonio Bombelli (Task•Coordinator
& PoC)
work aligned
to the GEO Work Plan
• regular update of the GEO Work Plan (2012-2015)
Leading partners (open and volunteer partnership):
• update the GEO task sheet on carbon (task CL-02)
Australia (CSIRO), EC (GEOCARBON), France (LSCE), Italy
of Tuscia),
• (CMCC,
updateUniversity
the GEO C-strategy
Japan (AIST, JAXA), Netherlands (University of Amsterdam), Norway (Bergen), UK
• participate in relevant GEO meetings
(University of Sheffield), USA (NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS), CEOS, GTOS, WMO (GAW)
• involve (and collaborate with) the global GEO community on C-cycle
Planned activities
• Improve information and products, Outreach, Carbon Portal
• Improve global observation networks measuring carbon pools and fluxes,
considering both CO2 and CH4
• Improve (resolution and accuracy) carbon budgets at different scales
• Develop an integrated Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS)
ingesting data from multiple data sources at different scale
• Validate space-based GHG observations and consolidate data
requirements for the next-generation GHG monitoring missions
GEO Task CL-02 partnership
GEO Task CL-02 partnership
GEOCARBON – the Partnership
1 Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy
2 University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
3 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETHZ), Switzerland
4 University of Wageningen, The Netherlands
5 University of Oxford, United Kingdom
6 VU University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
7 University of Leeds, United Kingdom
8 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany
9 University of Versailles, LSCE France
10 Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), The Netherlands
11 Second University of Naples, Italy
12 University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
13 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC), Norway
14 University of Tuscia, Italy
15 University of Bergen, Norway
16 GAMMA Remote Sensing Research and Consulting AG, Switzerland
17 Cameroon Biodiversity Conservation Society, Cameroon
18 FastOpt, Germany
19 University of Bristol, United Kingdom
20 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
21 Research Institute of Nuclear Energy (IPEN), Brazil
22 Food and Agriculture Organisation of The United Nations (FAO)
23 Free University of Brussels, Belgium
24 National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), France
25 University of Hamburg, Germany
Components
Project Management
1- Observation
data streams
2- Data
assimilation
system (CCDAS)
4- Tropical
hotspots
3- Specifications
and Network
Design
7- Cost benefit
analysis
6- CH4
5- Global and
regional
synthesis
Coordination links
8- Outreach and
GEO Interface
Data exchange
Component 1 - Observations data streams
WP1: Land
stocks & change
WP4: Ocean inv.
& fluxes
WP2: Land-atm
fluxes
WP5:
Anthropogenic
fluxes
WP3: Lateral
fluxes
WP6:
Atmospheric &
other
Provide an aggregated
set of harmonized
global carbon data.
GEOCARBON as
DATA PROVIDER
to GEO community
WP7: Integration
& synthesis
Component 2
Component 4
Carbon
office
Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas V2
SOCAT: world largest surface CO2 database: >9 million CO2 data
(+ sea characteristics, i.e. temperature, salinity, etc.)
• Time frame: 1968-2011
• Second version (blue lines)
supported by GEOCARBON:
60% data more than previous vs (red)
•
•
•
•
Uniform format
Transparent, fully documented
Open accessible by Spring 2013
Supported by UNESCO/SCOR’s IOCCP, SOLAS and IMBER
CMP1
(example)
www.socat.info
Global land stocks
and changes
CMP1
(example)
Land
use
www.rainfor.org
Biomass
Land
stocks and
change
Fire
Forest
age and
harvest
M. Herold, Geocarbon WP1
Global Forest Biomass
CMP1
Derive a global aboveground forest biomass dataset
(example)
(end of 2013)
Strategy:
COORDINATION WITH GFOI ENSURED:
GEOCARBON WP1 leader, Martin Herold, member of
advisory board for methods and guidance for GFOI
• Combine existing datasets (weighted average approach)
• Regional validation (independent field data and local maps)
Specifications:
• Spatial resolution: 1 Km
• Variable: Aboveground live biomass of trees with dbh >10 cm
(expansion for 0 – 10 cm may be also performed)
• Reference period: circa 2005 – 2010
(depending on the reference years of the input maps)
• Validation: Discrepancy map & Error statistics
GSV - Santoro, 2012
GEOCARBON DATA PORTAL
http://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/geocarbon/Home.php
GEOCARBON DATA POLICY
Data treatment
• Standardization, harmonization, storage
and distribution of the products
• Check: data format, time and space
resolution, land/ocean mask etc.
• QA/QC for all products to be delivered
to the other components.
• netCDF formats with tools and
consultancy provided to partners who
are not familiar with this.
• Transparent web interface with user
registration for file download according
to GEOSS data sharing principles.
Data Policy
• Promoting easy data access and data sharing in
compliance with the GEOSS data sharing principles.
• Sharing data: mutual benefits between data
providers and users
• GEOCARBON database will include data also from
external providers, according to their respective
data policy; providers will be involved in scientific
activities and data use.
• Tracked record of data downloaders: data providers
receive a notification when a user download their
data; use of data should be authorized.
• Data will be made available after a minimum time
delay (6-12 months). Data directly available without
authorization after 2 ys from the end of the project.
• Identification of the data generated by
GEOCARBON will be guaranteed by the Digital
Object Identifier (DOI).
GEOCARBON DATA PORTAL
Data owner perspetive: Functioning of the the data-portal
Registration
get username and password
Data upload
Decide if data should be publicly available
Define owners and co-owners
Provide additional information on the dataset,
e.g. Title, description, version ... (optional)
Data consistency check
Done by data manager at MPI-BGC
check of data format and meta-information,
Units, method description, etc
Dataset is visible on the geocarbon data portal
Title, description and metainformation of the file are visible and
Searchable for everyone
Maybe added to GEOSS search index in the future
GEOCARBON DATA PORTAL
Data user perspective: Functioning of the the data-portal
Is the dataset flagged as publicly available?
yes
no
Is the downloader a member
of the GEOCARBON project?
no
yes
Accept
data policy
grant
download
You are asked to write a request
message, which is sent to the data
owner, he can ...
Not grant
No download
Notification email
to data owner
Component 2
Carbon Cycle Data
Assimilation System
Land imager
(SAR: Biomass)
Ocean & terrestrial
in situ data
Remote sensing
CO2 conc.
(GOSAT, OCO2,…)
Wind & Temp. profile
Natural & Human
GHG emission map
Ocean
model
Land use & forest data
ecosystem
model
Atmospheric
model
atmospheric data
Anthropogenic emissions
5 global data assimilation systems
(simultaneously integrating models
and observations of the land, ocean
and atmosphere carbon cycle) + 2
ocean-only process models.
Satellite
column
observations
Component 3 - Global Carbon Observing System accuracy
requirements and network design
Atmospheric
in situ
observations
Single datastream
network optimization:
Multiple datastream network
optimization
Inventories
Determination of error of
target quantity versus
network/observation
density (e.g. no of
stations, towers, satellite
measurements, etc.)
Determination of error of
target quantity versus
network/observation density
for combinations of several
networks
Nominal network cost
determination for
different network
combinations
O2/N2
# of observations
13C/12C
Fossil-fuel
radiocarbon
observations
Target
Threshold
Target
Threshold
Target
Cost
Error of
target
quantity
Error of
target quantity
Fluxtowers
bs 1
# o o rk
tw
ne
Threshold
Error of target quantity
#
n e o bs
two
rk
2
Define the detailed requirements for an operational integrated global carbon
observing system.
Considering: different (ground and space based) networks sampling the ocean, the
land and the atmospheric carbon reservoirs.
Including: accuracy requirements, network performance, gap analysis, and feasibility.
GEOCARBON Component 4
C- cycle in the tropics
Biomass
Ecosystem
EOS
River
Combining: Atmospheric
inventories
fluxes
concentrations
land
carbon
use
Case study:
the observing
system in the
tropics:
Amazon
and
Africa
Reduce the uncertainty
of the net carbon
balance and trends of
tropical South America
and Africa in order to
improve regional Cbudgets.
GEO IX PLENARY – European Commission side event. Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 21-23 November
RAINFOR
monitoring in S. America
www.rainfor.org www.afritron.org www.forestplots.net
RAINFOR: more than 200 partners & 30 nations. Global collaborative measurements of
>800 plots since 2000. Common protocols, for field monitoring of forests’ biomass,
biodiversity and long-term carbon balance + data analysis
RAINFOR in
South America:
> 350 field plots, of which
139 in Brazil
1985 – now!
Now coordinated
with GEOCARBON!
RAINFOR Moore funded plots
Intensive plots
Collaborators' plots
Pre 2008 plots
RAINFOR includes
O. Phillips1, Y. Malhi2, J. Lloyd1, T. Baker1, G. Lopez Gonzalez1, L. Arroyo3,4, N. Higuchi5,
T. Killeen3,6, W. Laurance7,8, S. Lewis1,9, A. Monteagudo10,11, F. Ramirez, D. Neill4, P.
Núñez Vargas10, N. Silva12,13, J. Terborgh14, R. Vásquez Martínez11, S. Almeida16, R.
Brienen1, J. Chave18, J. A. Comiskey19, C. Czimczik, A. Di Fiore20, T. Erwin19, T.
Feldpausch1, E. Jimenez, S. Patiño1, 22, J. Peacock1, N. Pitman15, A. Prieto, C.A.
Quesada23,1, M. Saldias3, M. Silveira, A. Torres Lezama24, B. Vinceti25, E. Alvarez26,
M.C. Peñuela, A. Rudas-Ll27, L. Anderson2, L. Aragao2, S. Brown17, N.D. Cardozo, K.J. Chao1, M. Garcia-Hernandez1, J. Silva, E. Honorio, I. Huamantupa, A. Peña Cruz,
H. Ramirez, R. Salomão, N. Salinas, M. Schwarz, A. Sota, H. ter Steege, J. Stropp,
G. van der Heijden1, H. Keeling1, C. Kuebler6, S. Laurance7,8, H. Nascimento7,8, J.
Olivier18, W. Palacios21
1. University of Leeds, UK. 2. University of Oxford, U.K. 3. Museo Noel Kempff Mercado, Santa Cruz,
Bolivia. 4. Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis MO, USA. 5. Instituto National de Pesquisas Amazônicas,
Manaus, Brazil. 6. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, Washington DC,
USA. 7. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama. 8. Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments
Program, Manaus, Brazil. 9. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK. 10. Herbario Vargas,
Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru. 11. Proyecto Flora del Perú, Jardin Botanico de
Missouri, Oxapampa, Perú. 12. CIFOR, Tapajos, Brazil. 13. EMBRAPA Amazonia Oriental, Belém, Brazil.
14. Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Durham NC, USA. 15. New York Botanical Garden,
Bronx NY, USA. 16. Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belem, Brazil. 17. Winrock International, Arlington VA,
USA. 18. Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS/UPS Toulouse, France. 19. Smithsonian
Institution, Washington DC, USA. 20. Department of Anthropology, New York University NY, USA. 21.
Fundacion Jatun Sacha, Quito, Ecuador. 22. Alexander von Humboldt Biological Research Institute,
Bogotá, Colombia. 23. Departamento de Ecología, Universidade de Brasilia, Brazil. 24. INDEFOR,
Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela. 25. International Plant Genetic Resources Institute, Rome,
Italy. 26. Equipo de Gestión Ambiental, Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. ISA., Medellín, Colombia 27. Instituto
de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.
CO2 vertical profiles
over Amazon
supported by
GEOCARBON
2 sites currently funded by
GEOCARBON:
- Tabatinga, Amazonas state
- Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso state
Recent results for Amazonia
• Amazonian intact forests were/are a carbon
sink
• This sink is vulnerable to climate change!
• Fires, high temperature and drought can
neutralize it!
GEO IX PLENARY – European Commission side event. Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 21-23 November
Component 5
Integrated CO2
budgets and
uncertainties
GEOCARBON
+
Global carbon
budget
presented at
UNFCCC COP
18, Doha 2012
Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012
Global Carbon Project 2012
Carbon Budget Contributors
35 people from 10 countries
Corinne Le Quéré (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)
Glen Peters (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway)
Robbie Andrew (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway)
Bob Andres (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States)
Tom Boden (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States)
Thomas Conway (National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Colorado, United States)
Skee Houghton (Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), United States)
Jo House (Cabot Institute, Department of Geography, University of Bristol, United Kingdom)
Gregg Marland (Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, North Carolina, United States)
Guido van der Werf (VU University Amsterdam, Netherlands)
Anders Ahlström (Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden)
Laurent Bopp (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)
Pep Canadell (Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Philippe Ciais (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)
Scott Doney (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), United States)
C. Enright (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)
Pierre Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, United Kingdom)
Chris Huntingford (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), United Kingdom)
Atul Jain (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, United States)
Charlotte Jourdain (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)
Etsushi Kato (Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan)
Ralph Keeling (University of California - San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, California, United States)
Kees Klein Goldewijk (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands)
Samuel Levis (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado, United States)
Peter Levy (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), United Kingdom)
Mark Lomas (Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics (CTCD), Sheffield University, United Kingdom)
Ben Poulter (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)
Mike Raupach (Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Jörg Schwinger (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway)
Stephen Sitch (University of Exeter, United Kingdom)
Benjamin Stocker (Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland)
Nicolas Viovy (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France)
Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)
Soenke Zaehle (Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany)
Ning Zeng (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, United States)
www.globalcarbonproject.org
Now also GEOCARBON!
Observed Emissions
and Emission Scenarios
The current emissions’ trend is along the worse IPCC scenario!
SA90 (1990-1992, not shown), IS92 (1992-2000), SRES (2000-2012), RCPs (2012+)
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions
(2002-2011 average)
Not all the emissions remain into the atmosphere: ocean & land sinks “discount”
8.3±0.4 PgC/yr
4.3±0.1 PgC/yr
46%
1.0±0.5 PgC/yr
+
2.6±0.8 PgC/yr
28%
Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components
>50%
discount!
26%
2.5±0.5 PgC/yr
Changes in the Global
C-Budget over Time
Averaged sinks over 50 years: 44% atmosphere, 28% land, 29% ocean
The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions
It is uncertain how efficient the sinks will be in the future!
We cannot rely forever
on this 50% discount!
Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
GEO-Carbon-Office (GCO)
Component 8
Both for GEOCARBON and CL-02
Dissemination and
• Interface with EC
exploitation of the results.
• Liaise with
GEO Secretariat
andGFOI
GFOI
COORDINATION
WITH
Turn the results into policy
UNDER
DEVELOPMENT
• Strengthen
the effectiveness
of the global
relevant information.
carbon community participation in GEO
Liaise with relevant
• Enhance the communication flow among the
partners and decision
different communities
makers.
• Support the Carbon Community of Practice
• Mediate between science and policy
• Outreach
Currently: sustained and coordinated by the GEOCARBON
Project, with a global perspective (not Europe only!)
Ambition: engage a wider community and become an
international coordinating office sustained by an
international organization or partnership, after the project’s
end (from 2015 onwards).
GEO Conference “Towards a global Carbon Observing and Analysis System:
Progresses and Challenges”
Geneva, 1-2 October 2013
• Tropical C-budget and hotspots
• Observations from space
• In situ observations
• Global CH4 cycle
• Model data fusion at global and regional scale
• Carbon and policy
Please circulate
the announcement
GEO CL-02 "Global Carbon Observation and Analysis" Task meeting
Geneva, 3-4 October 2013
• To revamp the work of the CL-02 task
• Consolidate and enlarge the GEO community contributing to the “carbon” task
• Improve the global coordination
Short declaration /
• Ensure commitment
list of recommendations
• Plan the next activities
for the Ministerial Summit?
• Establish the new GEO Carbon Community of Practice
THANKS!
GEO
CARBON
[email protected]
www.cmcc.it