Transcript The Youth Bulge - Institute of Public Administration Australia

KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS
AND IMPLICATIONS OF
POPULATION DYNAMICS
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow
Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre
for Social Applications of GIS
The University of Adelaide
Dinner Presentation to Institute of Public Administration Australia
National Roundtable Series Meeting on Sustainable Population
Strategy – Public Policy and Implementation Challenges
Canberra
th
11 April 2011
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• Myths and Population
Dynamics
• Global Trends and Drivers
• Australian Population
Issues
• Developing a Way Forward
• Conclusion
Exploding Myths About
Population
• Population is dynamic, always changing,
but the change is gradual which means it
often escapes the attention of policy
makers
• Population is influenced by economic
changes but not purely a function of them
• Some population change is structural –
inevitable and predictable – provides some
certainties in looking to the future
• Population is amenable to policy
intervention
Global Population Situation
• Current global population 6,892 million
• Current annual increase rate 1.2%
compared to 2.1% in 1969
• World Total Fertility Rate 4.8 in 1965-70,
2.5 in 2010
• World Life Expectancy at Birth 56 in
1965-70, 69 in 2010
• Percent in MDCs, 32.1 in 1950, 17.9 in
2010 and 13.9 in 2050
• Percent Urban, 28.8 in 1950, 50.5 in
2010
• Projected Global Population in 2050 –
9,149 million
World Population: Time to Add Successive
Billions in World Population, 1800 to 2050
Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision
Population Database
Some Key Demographic Elements in
Future Global Population Change
•
•
•
•
•
Ageing
The youth bulge
China and India
The Migration and Development Debate
Climate Change
“Over the next couple of decades nothing
will impact OECD economies more
profoundly than demographic trends and,
chief among them, ageing”
Jean-Philippe Cotis
Chief Economist, OECD
March 2005
Labour Force Age Groups and
Dependency Rates
Source: World Bank, 2006
Structural Ageing:
MDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database
2010-2020 (1,268 m)
2010-2030 (1,282 m)
15,000
5,000
-5,000
-15,000
Age
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
-25,000
0-4
Change in Number
25,000
Structural Ageing:
LDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database
140,000
2010-2020 (6,406 m)
2010-2030 (7,027 m)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
Age
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
-40,000
0-4
Change in Number
160,000
Demographic Impacts of
Fertility Decline
• Ageing
• The youth bulge and the
demographic dividend
The Middle East Youth Bulge
• 1970-2007, 80% of outbreaks of violence
in countries where 60% or more aged
under 30
• 60% of region’s population aged under 30
• 20% of Egyptians aged 15-24
• Exacerbated in urban areas
Source: Gosh, B. 2011, Rage, Rap and Revolution, Time, February 28, p.25
The Youth Bulge
(Westley and Cho, 2002, 57)
“…is the result of a transition from high to
low fertility about 15 years earlier. The
youth bulge consists of large numbers of
young adolescents and young adults who
were born when fertility was high followed
by declining numbers of children born after
fertility declined”
World Regions: Share of Population in Working Ages,
Actual, 1950-2005 and Projected, 2010-2050
Source:
United Nations 2007
0.70
0.68
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
Year
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and Caribbean
North America
Oceania
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
0.50
1950
Share of Population
0.66
Impacts of the Youth Bulge
• The demographic dividend impact on the
economy
• Accounts for a fifth of China’s economic
growth in 1990s (Mason, 2004)
• Potential for political unrest (Fuller and
Hoch, 1998)
• Potential for increased population mobility
The “demographic dividend”
delivered through 3 mechanisms…
• Labour supply – the numbers available to work are
larger. Also women are more likely to enter the
workforce as family size decreases, hence, since the
Asian youth bulge is associated with low fertility, female
workforce participation is likely to be high while the
young and the old consume more than they produce.
• Savings – younger working age people tend to have a
higher level of output and also a higher level of savings.
• Human capital investments – with smaller numbers of
children and cultural changes there will be greater
investment in education, health, etc. Hence, primary and
secondary enrolment ratios are increased.
Impacts of Current Youth Bulge
Exacerbated by …
• Disproportionate concentration in cities
• First generation with universal education
• First generation growing up with the
internet and global communications
The Demographic Giants:
India and China
Source: United Nations 2009 and 2010
Demographic Variable
India
China
Population 2010 ('000)
1,214,464
1,354,146
Population 2030 ('000)
1,484,598
1,462,468
Population 2050 ('000)
1,613,800
1,417,045
Total Fertility Rate 2005-10
2.76
1.77
Life Expectancy at Birth 2005-10
63.5
73
30
47
106.8
107.9
% Aged Less than 15 years, 2010
30.8
19.9
% Aged 65 year and over, 2010
4.9
8.2
% Urban 2010
Sex Ratio, 2010
China and India: Age and Sex Structure
of the Population, 2010
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database
China (shaded) and India Population
Age
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
80,000
60,000
Females
40,000
20,000
0
20,000
Number (000s)
40,000
60,000
80,000
Key Demographic Issues
•
•
•
•
Ageing – especially China
Workforce challenges
Gender imbalance
International migration – strong policy
intervention
• Internal population distribution
• Climate change
International Migration and
Development
• Brain drain issues
• Remittances
• Diaspora impacts – new
significance
• Role of policy
Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Economies
Source:
World Bank, 2010
NATIONAL DIASPORAS IN RELATION TO
RESIDENT NATIONAL POPULATIONS
Source: US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India, http://indiandiaspora.nic.in;
Naseem, 1998; Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Philippines Overseas Employment Service; Asian Migration News, 15-31 January
2006; OECD database on immigrants and expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/korean_diaspora
USA:
8.7 million – 2.7 percent of national population
Australia:
900,000 – 4.3 percent of national population
New Zealand:
850,000 – 21.9 percent of national population
Philippines:
7.5 million – 9.0 percent of national population
India:
20 million – 1.9 percent of national population
Pakistan:
4 million – 2.8 percent of national population
China:
30 to 40 million – 2.9 percent of national population
Japan:
873,641 – 0.7 percent of national population
South Korea:
6.4 million – 13.2 percent of national population
Vietnam:
2.6 million – 3.2 percent of national population
Mexico:
19 million* – 19 percent of national population
Singapore:
100-150,000 – 3.5 percent of national population
Cook Islands:
52,600 – 34 percent of national population
Niue:
5,884 – 294.2 percent of national population
Tokelau:
2,019 – 138.5 percent of national population
Samoa:
78,253 – 44.5 percent of national population
Fiji:
128,284 – 15.8 percent of national population
Italy:
29 million – 49.4 percent of national population
* Mexican diaspora in the U.S.
Role of Policy
• Origins
- remittances
- engagement of diaspora
- return
• Destination - A development friendly
immigration policy?
Climate Change and
Population
• Coincidence of demographic
and climate change hotspots
• Linkages with migration
Population and Climate Change Hotspots
Source: www.populationaction.org/Publications
Hotspots of Climate Change
Impact Within the Asia Pacific
•
Coastal areas are vulnerable to inundation and the effect of storm surges
associated with sea level rise (McGranahan et al., 2007).
•
River valleys and deltas (Ericson et al., 2006) will be influenced by
increased riparian flooding.
•
Low lying island states, especially atolls, are at risk from the effects of sea
level rise, surface warming and extreme weather events (Barnett and
Adger, 2003).
•
Semi-arid and low humidity areas where drought and availability of water
are already problematic are likely to experience an exacerbation of those
water shortage problems.
•
Some other areas likely to be impacted by extreme weather events.
Asian Megacities at Risk
Source: ADB 2009, 17
Differences in Population in the LECZ by Global
Region, 2000
Source: McGranahan et al., 2007
Contemporary Dynamics of
Australian Population
•
•
•
•
Growth – Mortality, Fertility and Migration
Composition
Distribution
Projections
Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa)
Source: ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2009 and 2010; ABS 2010
Country/Region
Year
Rate Per Annum
World
2009-10
1.2
LDCs (excl. China)
2009-10
1.7
MDCs
2009-10
0.4
Europe and the New Independent States
2009-10
0.1
North America
2009-10
0.9
ESCAP Region
2008-09
1.0
Indonesia
2008-09
1.1
Australia
2009-10
1.7
Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the
Natural Increase and Net Migration Components,
1947 to 2010
Source: ABS 1996 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
200,000
Net Migration
150,000
100,000
Natural Increase
50,000
Year
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
0
1947
Persons
250,000
Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2009
Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins
Expectation of Life at Birth
Males
Females
1947
66.1
70.6
2009
79.3
83.9
Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50,
1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2009
Source: ABS
Year
Males
Females
1901-1910
21.2
23.7
1970-1972
23.0
28.3
2009
31.7
35.3
Fertility
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2009
Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues
Australia: Permanent and Temporary Components of Net
Overseas Migration, 1983-2010
Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics, DIAC Immigration Update and ABS Australian Demographic
Statistics, various issues
300,000
200,000
150,000
Temporary
Permanent
100,000
50,000
0
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Persons
250,000
Year
Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data
100
90
80
Females
Males
70
60
Baby
Boomers
Age
50
40
First echo
30
20
10
0
200,000
Second echo?
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Persons
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Baby Boomers 2006
• 27.5% of Australian Population
• 41.8% of Australian Workforce
A Distinct Population
Distribution
• 87% living in urban areas
• 64% living in capital cities
• 81% living 50 km from coast
Changing Population Distribution
Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, 1861-2010
Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004, 2011
Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009
(mm/10years)
Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010
Australia: Rainfall and Population in
2006
Australian rainfall 2006
Below average
Average
Above average
% of
Population
Percent of
2006
2006 population Growth rate Land Area
89.6
7.23
3.17
17,749,462
1,432,090
628,865
0.98
0.70
-1.57
38
18
44
Projecting the Population
• Different to prediction
• ABS does every 3 years
• Assumptions regarding mortality, fertility
and migration
ABS Projections of the Population of
Australia, 2005 and 2008
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008
2006 Actual
2007 Actual
2021 Projected
2051 Projected
Australia
ABS 2005 ABS 2008
Series B
20.7
20.7
21.0
21.0
23.9
25.6
28.0
34.2
Structural Ageing:
Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
85+
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2006-2021 (25.6 m)
2006-2031 (28.8 m)
0
Percentage Change
Source: ABS 2008 Projections
Australia’s Population
Dilemma
• On the one hand there is a need to
grow the population because
- A replacement task – 42% of the
present workforce are baby boomers
- Net increases in demand for labour
• On the other there are substantial
environmental constraints which will
be exacerbated by climate change
Australia: Population by Selected
Ages, 2010
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population Data
Age
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Persons as
at 30th June
2010
272,245
270,528
271,447
276,570
278,695
278,877
279,518
282,344
284,344
291,967
293,191
297,283
Age
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
Persons as
at 30th June
2010
284,737
275,369
268,602
267,590
258,906
255,546
252,793
244,204
246,409
254,966
214,165
204,634
Difference
12,492
4,841
- 2,845
- 8,980
- 19,789
- 23,331
- 26,725
- 38,140
- 37,935
- 37,001
- 79,026
- 92,649
Addressing Ageing
• There are no silver bullets – no single policy
intervention will counteract the effects of ageing
• Introduction of a number of strategies involving
Productivity, Participation and Population is
essential
• To be most effective they need to be introduced
well before the ageing “crunch”. Planning is
crucial.
• Demographically Australia is better placed than
any OECD country to effectively cope with
ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy
intervention now
Rethinking Australia’s
Settlement System
• Most Australians will continue to live in
capital cities and developing more
sustainable large metropolitan areas is an
important national priority
• However we must also consider to what
extent our settlement system is the most
efficient for the Twenty First Century and
do the science to see whether modification
of the settlement system would be
advisable and possible
Issues to be Considered
• Several of fastest developing sectors of the
economy have a strong non-metropolitan
location (mining and tourism)
• Agglomeration economics do not apply for all
economic activity
• There is already net outmigration of the
Australian-born from capital cities like Sydney
Issues to be Considered (cont)
• Increased international migration
to non-metropolitan areas
• Environmental constraints of
southeastern Australia
• The impact of baby boom
retirement
Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal
and International Migration, 1971 to 2006
Source: NSW Department of Planning
80,000
60,000
Overseas migration
40,000
Number
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
Internal migration
Year
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
-60,000
Australia: 457 Migrants and Settler Arrivals by
Statistical Division, 2009-10
Source: DIAC
What is Needed?
• Currently there is an unproductive debate
between “pro growth” and “stop growth”
lobbies
• There must be trade offs and compromises
which facilitate growth with sustainability,
informed by the best information and
knowledge available across all relevant
disciplines
• Regardless, there will be substantial continued
population growth over the next two decades
but we need to carefully consider
(a) How much growth and not adopt
unsubstantiated aspirational population
targets?
(b) Where is that growth best located?
Conclusion
• Australia is demographically better placed than most
OECD countries to cope with economic,
demographic and environmental changes over the
next two decades
• However Australia lacks a population policy which is
informed not only by economic imperatives but also
environmental and social inclusion concerns
• Need for development of a strategy which is based
on the best science and is inclusive of the
aspirations of all Australians