Transcript An Example - Department of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences

Inner Workings
of
Assessment Reports
1. IPCC AR5
2. U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
Assessment Development
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Reminder: Role of IPCC
"assess on a comprehensive, objective,
open and transparent basis the scientific,
technical and socio-economic information
relevant to understanding the scientific
basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation"
(source: www.ipcc.ch)
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Reminder: Role of IPCC
"The IPCC does not carry out research nor
does it monitor climate related data or other
relevant parameters. It bases its assessment
mainly on peer-reviewed and published
scientific/technical literature."
(source: www.ipcc.ch)
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
When?
Assessment Development
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
What?
Assessment Development
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
What?
Working Group 2 Outline
Chapter 7. Food production systems and food security
• Food production: farming, livestock, and fisheries and their
sensitivities to climate change
• Food systems: processing, distribution, and access
• Food security and the means to achieve it
4. Terrestrial and inland water systems
9. Rural Areas
11. Human health
Adaptation – 4 Chapters
Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities – 3 Chapters
Regions – 9 Chapters
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Who?
 258 Lead Authors and Review Editors
 44 countries
 65% are new
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Who?
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Coordinating Lead Authors
Matthew COLLINS
Reto KNUTTI
Lead Authors
Julie ARBLASTER
Ken CALDEIRA
Jean-Louis DUFRESNE
Thierry FICHEFET
Pierre FRIEDLINGSTEIN
Xuejie GAO
William GUTOWSKI
Tim JOHNS
Gerhard KRINNER
Mxolisi SHONGWE
Claudia TEBALDI
Andrew WEAVER
Michael WEHNER
Review Editors
Sylvie JOUSSAUME
Abdalah MOKSSIT
Karl TAYLOR
Simon TETT
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UNITED KINGDOM
SWITZERLAND
AUSTRALIA
USA
FRANCE
BELGIUM
UNITED KINGDOM
CHINA
USA
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE
SWAZILAND
USA
CANADA
USA
FRANCE
MOROCCO
USA
UNITED KINGDOM
Global Change 404/504
The Fifth
Assessment
Report (AR5)
______
Why me?
The nomination
procedure
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The Fifth
Assessment
Report (AR5)
______
Conflict of
Interest?
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Foundations of the AR5 Assessment:
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5
(CMIP5)
(cmmap.colostate.edu)
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Inner Workings
of
Assessment Reports
1. IPCC AR5
2. U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
Assessment Development
Global Change 404/504
U.S. Climate Change Science
Program
Synthesis and Assessment
Product 3.3
Weather and Climate Extremes
in a Changing Climate
(North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific
Islands)
Adapted from a Public Briefing
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AUTHOR TEAM FOR THIS REPORT
Preface Authors: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA; Gerald A. Meehl,
NCAR; Christopher D. Miller, NOAA; William L. Murray, STG,
Inc.
Executive Summary Convening Lead Authors: Thomas R.
Karl, NOAA; Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR
Lead Authors: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA; Kenneth E.
Kunkel, Univ. Ill. Urbana-Champaign, Ill. State Water Survey;
William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State Univ.; David R.
Easterling, NOAA
Editors: Susan J. Hassol, STG, Inc.; Christopher D. Miller,
NOAA; William L. Murray, STG, Inc.; Anne M. Waple, STG,
Inc.
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AUTHOR TEAM FOR THIS REPORT
Chapter 1 Convening Lead Author: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA
Lead Authors: David M. Anderson, NOAA; Stewart J. Cohen, Environment
Canada and Univ. of British Columbia; Miguel Cortez-Vázquez, National
Meteorological Service of Mexico; Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Inst. of Ocean
Sciences; Camille Parmesan, Univ. of Tex. at Austin; David Phillips, Environment
Canada; Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA; John M.R. Stone, Carleton Univ.
Contributing Authors: Tamara G. Houston, NOAA; Susan L. Cutter, Univ. of
S.C.; Melanie Gall, Univ. of S.C.
Chapter 2 Convening Lead Author: Kenneth E. Kunkel, Univ. Ill. UrbanaChampaign, Ill. State Water Survey
Lead Authors: Peter D. Bromirski, Scripps Inst. Oceanography, UCSD; Harold E.
Brooks, NOAA; Tereza Cavazos, Centro de Investigación Científica y de
Educación Superior de Ensenada, Mexico; Arthur V. Douglas, Creighton Univ.;
David R. Easterling, NOAA; Kerry A. Emanuel, Mass. Inst. Tech.; Pavel Ya.
Groisman, Univ. Corp. Atmos. Res.; Greg J. Holland, NCAR; Thomas R. Knutson,
NOAA; James P. Kossin, Univ. Wis., Madison, CIMSS; Paul D. Komar, Oreg. State
Univ.; David H. Levinson, NOAA; Richard L. Smith, Univ. N.C., Chapel Hill
Contributing Authors: Jonathan C. Allan, Oreg. Dept. Geology and Mineral
Industries; Raymond A. Assel, NOAA; Stanley A. Changnon, Univ. Ill. UrbanaChampaign, Ill. State Water Survey; Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA; Kam-biu Liu, La.
State Univ., Baton Rouge; Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA
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AUTHOR TEAM FOR THIS REPORT
Chapter 3 Convening Lead Author: William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa
State Univ.
Lead Authors: Gabriele C. Hegerl, Duke Univ.; Greg J. Holland, NCAR;
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA; Linda O. Mearns, NCAR; Ronald J. Stouffer,
NOAA; Peter J. Webster, Ga. Inst. Tech.; Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory; Francis W. Zwiers, Environment Canada
Contributing Authors: Harold E. Brooks, NOAA; Kerry A. Emanuel,
Mass. Inst. Tech.; Paul D. Komar, Oreg. State Univ.; James P. Kossin,
Univ. Wisc., Madison; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Univ. Ill. Urbana-Champaign,
Ill. State Water Survey; Ruth McDonald, Met Office, United Kingdom;
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR; Robert J. Trapp, Purdue Univ.
Chapter 4 Convening Lead Author: David R. Easterling, NOAA
Lead Authors: David M. Anderson, NOAA; Stewart J. Cohen,
Environment Canada and University of British Columbia; William J.
Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State Univ.; Greg J. Holland, NCAR; Kenneth E.
Kunkel, Univ. Ill. Urbana-Champaign, Ill. State Water Survey; Thomas C.
Peterson, NOAA; Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA; Michael F. Wehner,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Appendix A Author: Richard L. Smith, Univ. N.C., Chapel Hill
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Chapter 3 – Understanding the Physical
Basis
Physical processes
• of the extreme behavior itself
• creating an environment conducive to
extremes
Physical understanding is a necessary
condition for confidence in climate change
projections
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Chapter 3 - Controversies
Physical processes
• of the extreme behavior itself
• creating an environment conducive to
extremes
Physical understanding is a necessary
condition for confidence in climate change
projections
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Key Findings: 20th Century
 Human-induced warming has likely caused much of the average
temperature increase in North America over the past 50 years.
 This warming affects changes in temperature
extremes such as increasing extremely warm
nights and cold days and nights, lengthening of
growing season and decrease in the number of
frost days.
 Observed changes in heavy rainfall over
North America are generally consistent with
observed increases in atmospheric water vapor,
which has been associated with human-induced
increases in greenhouse gases
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Key Findings: 20th Century
 It is very likely that the human-induced increase in greenhouse
gases has contributed to the increase in SSTs in the hurricane
formation regions. Over the past 50 years, there has been a
strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic SSTs and
Atlantic hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation
Index (which combines storm intensity, duration and frequency).
This evidence suggests a human contribution to recent hurricane
activity. However, a confident assessment of human influence on
hurricanes will require further studies with models and
observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from
human-induced changes in hurricane activity through their
influence on factors such as historical SSTs, wind shear, and
atmospheric vertical stability.
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Key Findings: Projected Changes
 For North Atlantic and North Pacific hurricanes and typhoons:
• It is likely that hurricane/typhoon wind speeds and core rainfall rates
will increase in response to human-caused warming.
• Simulations suggest: Tropical SST 1°C  
o hurricane surface wind speeds  1- 8%
o core rainfall rates  6 -18%.
• Frequency changes too uncertain for confident projection
• Spatial distribution of hurricanes /typhoons will likely change
• Storm surge levels are likely to increase due to projected sea level
rise
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Inner Workings
of
Assessment Reports
END
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SYNOPSIS
Global Attribution Studies
It is well established through formal attribution studies
that the global warming of the past 50 years is due
primarily to human-induced increases in heat trapping
gasses.
North American Attribution Studies
Such studies have only recently been used to determine the causes of some
changes in extremes at the scale of a continent. Certain aspects of observed
increases in temperature extremes have been linked to human influences. The
increase in heavy precipitation events is associated with an increase in water
vapor, and the latter has been attributed to human-induced warming. No formal
attribution studies for changes in drought severity in North America have been
attempted. There is evidence suggesting a human contribution to recent changes
in hurricane activity as well as in storms outside the tropics, though a confident
assessment will require further study.
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SYNOPSIS
Future Projections
In the future, with continued global warming, heat waves and heavy
downpours are projected to further increase in frequency and
intensity.
Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more
frequent droughts of greater severity. Hurricane wind speeds,
rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are projected to increase.
The strongest cold season storms are likely to become more
frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights.
Current and future impacts resulting from these changes depend
not only on the changes in extremes, but also on responses by
human and
natural systems.
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Key priorities for improving our
understanding of climate and weather
extremes in a changing climate:
1. The continued development and maintenance of high quality
climate observing systems will improve our ability to monitor
and detect future changes in climate extremes.
2. Efforts to digitize, homogenize, and analyze long-term
observations in the instrumental record with multiple
independent experts and analyses improve our confidence in
detecting past changes in climate extremes.
3. Weather observing systems adhering to standards of
observation consistent with the needs of both the climate and
the weather research communities improve our ability to
detect observed changes in climate extremes.
4. Extended reconstructions of past climate using weather
models initialized with homogenous surface observations would
help improve our understanding of strong extra-tropical
cyclones and other aspects of climate variability.
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Key priorities for improving our
understanding of climate and weather
extremes in a changing climate:
5. The creation of annually-resolved, regional-scale reconstructions of the climate for
the past 2,000 years would help improve our understanding of very long-term regional
climate variability.
6. Improvements in our understanding of the mechanisms that govern hurricane intensity
would lead to better short-and long-term predictive capabilities.
7. Establishing a globally-consistent wind definition for determining hurricane intensity
would allow for more consistent comparisons across the globe.
8. Improvements in the ability of climate models to recreate the recent past as well as
make projections under a variety of forcing scenarios are dependent on access to both
computational and human resources.
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Key priorities for improving our
understanding of climate and weather
extremes in a changing climate:
9. More extensive access to high temporal resolution data (daily, hourly) from climate
model simulations both of the past and for the future would allow for improved
understanding of potential changes in weather and climate extremes.
10. Research should focus on the development of a better understanding of the
physical processes that produce extremes and how these processes change with
climate.
11. Enhanced communication between the climate science community and those who
make climate-sensitive decisions would strengthen our understanding of climate
extremes and their impacts.
12. A reliable database on damage costs, associated with extreme weather and
climate events, and how best to account for changing socioeconomic conditions,
including adaptation over time, would improve our understanding of losses associated
with climate extremes.
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