Transcript - Classroom

Four students were discussing how plants
might react to the current change in
climate. This is what they said:
Cassy:
“I think plant species will adapt to climate changes and
continue to exist as they do now.”
Will:
“I think some plant species will adapt to climate changes but
others will not adapt – these will not survive climate
changes.”
Jeremy:
“I think plant species will acclimate to the climate changes
and continue to exist as they do now.”
Samantha:
“I think plant species prefer the climate in which they grow
best and will shift to be in the preferred climate if the climate
changes.”
Coniferous
Forest
Grassland
Deciduous
Forest
AREA: 5,400 acres (~9 sq. mi.)
Major Research Themes
CO2 & Global Climate Change Studies
Biodiversity & Global Warming Studies
[2001 - 2005]
Fornara & Tilman (Ecology, 2009)
[2004 - 2006]
Grades 7-12
programming
Students from
Edison High
School,
Minneapolis,
MN, measuring
light levels in
the prairie.
Professional development
workshops in ecology for
educators
THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:
How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University
of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
WHAT MAY HAPPEN
TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE?
HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE
AFFECT MINNESOTA’S
ECOSYSTEMS?
WELCOME TO LAKE SUPERIOR?
IT’S ALL
ABOUT THE
CLIMATE…
CLIMATE is the
prevailing weather
conditions of a
region averaged
over long periods
of time.
Wikipedia
…AND THE
BIOMES
THAT
RESULT
NORTH AMERICA’S
BIOMES
A BIOME is a
large land area
characterized by
a prevailing
CLIMATE that
supports a major
ecological
community type.
Wikipedia
MINNESOTA’S
BIOMES
MN DNR
Minnesota is unique in that it supports three
major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE…
a transition zone between biomes.
WHERE THE CLIMATE GOES,
SO GOES THE BIOMES…
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
(Solar Radiation)
(Amount & Timing)
SOIL MOISTURE
(Evapotranspiration)
Pearson Education
GLOBAL
BIOMES
“SURVIVE
&
THRIVE”
AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE
(U.S.)
“SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE
-20oF
0oF
30oF 41oF
60oF
80oF
RANGES
-14oF
BOREAL FOREST
60oF
39oF DECIDUOUS 72oF
10oF
GRASSLAND
80oF
AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
(U.S.)
“SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE
RANGES
10in.
20in. 26in.
35in.
45in.
60in.
15in.
BOREAL FOREST
25in.
10in.
GRASSLAND
40in.
DECIDUOUS FOREST
35in.
60in.
CONTINENTAL U.S.
BIOMES
66cm
(26in.)
U.S.
5oC (41oF)
Sub-Arctic
N
Boreal
TEMPERATURE
U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF)
U.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF)
S
Sub-Tropical
Temperate
B
U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF)
PRECIPITATION
W
Arid
25-87cm (10-35in)
Semi-Arid
Semi-Mesic
40-100cm (15-40in)
E
Mesic
65-150cm (25-60in)
SOIL MOISTURE
U.S. Estimated Water Budget
Evapotranspiration
67%
Surface Runoff
29%
Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2%
Wikipedia
USGS
SOIL MOISTURE N
W
E
S
NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST
BORDER
?
U.S. CLIMATE & BIOMES PROFILE
Major Biomes
NOAA - NWS
WHAT IS
MINNESOTA’S
CURRENT
CLIMATE?
(Averaged over the
past 100 years)
DO THESE
AVERAGES
LOOK
FAMILIAR?
TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg.
PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg.
CONTINENTAL U.S.
BIOMES
66cm
(26in.)
U.S.
5oC (41oF)
51oF
42oF
U.S.
39oF
39oF
(1971-2000)
42oF
45oF
45oF
51oF
CLIMATE
ISOLINES
54oF
48oF
58oF
51oF
62oF
54oF
64oF
58oF
72oF
68oF
68oF
62oF
64oF
72oF
72oF
100”
12”
8”
(1971-2000)
16”
20”
24”
40”
28”
32”
36”
28”
36”
40”
4”
50”
64oF
<4”
8”
60”
TEMPERATURE ISOLINES
TEMPERATURE
37oF
41oF
44oF
NWS
PRECIPITATION ISOLINES
23in
NWS
26in
35in
PRECIPITATION
40in
ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT
TEMPERATURE
37oF
41oF
44oF
NWS
23in
26in
35in
PRECIPITATION
CURRENT
MN CLIMATE
OF 2010
66cm
(26in.)
5oC (41oF)
MINNESOTA BIOMES
CONIFEROUS
FOREST
DECIDUOUS
FOREST
GRASSLAND
MN DNR
HAVE THERE
BEEN CHANGES
IN MN’S
CLIMATE?
IPCC
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930)
Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF)
36oF
40oF
1930
St. Cloud
Area
41oF
43oF
NWS adapted
by C. Lehman
26in
34in
31in
22in
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
19in
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2000)
Detroit
Lakes
Area
Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF)
37oF
39oF
2010
41oF
44oF
NWS adapted
by C. Lehman
35in
30in
38in
26in
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
23in
MINNESOTA BIOMES
CONIFEROUS
FOREST
About a
100 mile
shift
2010
1930
DECIDUOUS
FOREST
GRASSLAND
MN DNR
WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO
MINNESOTA’S FUTURE CLIMATE?
2100
TEMPERATURE
3.5 – 4.0oC
(6.3 – 7.2oF)
INCREASE
5oC (41oF) Current Avg.
becomes
9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg.
PRECIPITATION
5 – 10%
(1.3 – 2.6 in.)
INCREASE
26 in. Current Avg.
becomes
28 in. Predicted Avg.
IPCC, 2007
USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE
POINT (2010-2100)
o
41 F
2100
Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF)
44oF
48oF
51oF
33in
37in
40in
28in
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
26in
NWS adapted
by C. Lehman
Oh,
Canada!
PREDICTED
MN CLIMATE
OF 2100
71cm
(28in.)
9oC (48oF)
MINNESOTA BIOMES
2100
DECIDUOUS
FOREST
GRASSLAND
About a
300 mile
shift
2100
Plant Hardiness Zones
USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation
Projected (2100)
USDA-Forest Service
SO, MAYBE NOT THIS…
PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS…
SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE?
Luka Luka
SUCCESSION,
DISTURBANCE &
COMPETITION
MN DNR
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director
University of Minnesota
Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE
East Bethel, MN 55005
(763) 434-5131
www.cedarcreek.umn.edu
[email protected]
HOW ARE SCIENTISTS AT CEDAR
CREEK STUDYING THE POTENTIAL
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
MINNESOTA’S ECOSYSTEMS?
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director
University of Minnesota
Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE
East Bethel, MN 55005
(763) 434-5131
www.cedarcreek.umn.edu
[email protected]