Transcript Mazmanian Presentation

California’s Climate Change Policy –
Global Leader or Irrational Actor?
Dan Mazmanian
Professor of Public Policy
Sol Price School of Public Policy
[email protected]
USC School of International Relations
Public Roundtable
November 11, 2013
Projected Global Warming: 2+ Degrees Celsius
California’s Response to the IPCC Global
Warming Challenge (Mitigation)
AB32, “The California’s Global Warming Solutions Act of
2006”
• The Act was passed by Democratic legislature and signed into
law by a Republican Governor.
• It is extraordinary in its comprehensive, economy-wide
coverage calling for a multifaceted effort of greenhouse gas
reductions by the business and people of California.
• It calls for reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (a
25% reduction in emissions).
AB 32 Emissions Reduction Strategy
Scoping Plan
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Cap-and Trade Program
Light-Duty Vehicle GHG
Standards
Energy Efficiency
Renewables Portfolio
Standard
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Regional TransportationRelated GHG Targets
Vehicle Efficiency Measures
Goods Movement
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Million Solar Roofs Program
Medium/Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Industrial Emissions
High Speed Rail
Green Building Strategy
High Global Warming
Potential Gases
Recycling and Waste
Sustainable Forests
Water
Agriculture
Trends in CA GHG Emissions
• Emissions per dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) dropped
by 27% between 1997 and 2010.
•
Efficiency also improved with per capita emissions dropping
9% over the same time period.
• Total GHG emissions continue to fall from their peak in 2008,
decreasing 1.4 percent since 2009 to 451.6 million MTCO2e.
• Emissions need to drop another 4% to reach 1990 levels.
• While CA improves, total U.S. emissions rose 3.2 percent from
2009 to 2010 and have increased 10.5 percent since 1990.
(NEXT 10, 2013 CA Greening Index; pp.17 &.20)
CA Public Opinion: Strong Support
• Two-thirds say global warming is a serious threat (48% very serious,
31% somewhat serious) to economy and quality of life in the future
• Most (67%) favor the state law requiring CA to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions
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Most (65%) say steps need to be taken right away to counter the
effects of global warming
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60% of Californians favor the state making its own policies, separate
from the federal government
• However, with Cap and Trade provisions 54% heard nothing. Of those
who have heard a lot, strong support (62% - 35% in favor)
(PPIC survey on environment, July 2013)
Urban Policy Companion Legislation
SB375, Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act
of 2008
• The Act requires reductions in GHG and VMT (vehicles miles
traveled) in exchange for expedited development permitting.
• It calls for linking CA’s climate change strategy to future
development through regional-based planning for
transportation, jobs-housing balance, and urban design within
the context of a growing state population.
• Incentives: relief from some CEQA (CA Env. Quality Act)
provisions; federal transportation funding
California’s Response to the Projected
Effects of Climate Change (Adaptation)
Study the problem, develop an array of possible responses, yet no
adaptation policy comparable to AB32 adopted by the state
legislature and signed into law by the governor.
Two state-level policy studies:
2009 – CA Natural Resources Agency, “California Climate Adaptation Strategy”
(being updated for 2014):
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/index.html
2010 – (CAAP) California Adaptation Advisory Panel Report, “Preparing for the
effects of climate change – a strategy for
California”:http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=185
(Note: I served as executive director of CAAP)
SEA LEVEL RISE:
Property at Risk
FOREST AND RANGE LAND FIRE: Hotter, drier summers could
result in longer more intense wild fire seasons.
Source of fire slides: Anthony Westerling, 2009
WATER: The Snowpack in the High Sierra’s on which CA relies for
up to 40% of its water storage capacity will be reduced by up to 80%
Sierra Snowpack: Impact of Climate Change
Lower Emissions Scenario
(2070-2099)
Historical Average
(1961-1990)
100%
Remaining
Source: Scripps 2006
13
40%
Remaining
Higher Emissions Scenario
(2070- 2099)
20%
Remaining
Perceptions of Threats
Concern level
Very high Somewhat
Wildfires that are more severe
Droughts that are more severe
Increased flooding
Storms that are more severe
57%
49
28
28
25%
29
28
30
(PPIC Survey, July 2013)
•Aligning incentives at the level of the individual, business and industry, community, regional and state level to result
Adaptation Actions Under Consideration
as State Policy in CA
1. Enhanced data gathering and monitoring of climate change
effects (underway)
2. Require intergovernmental and inter-sector coordination
around climate change effects in planning and approving projects
3. Develop capacity at all levels of government in science-based
climate change assessments and decision making
4. Develop extensive and continuous public education and on
climate change and projected effects
Cont.:
5. Establish a California Risk Council in the office of the
governor (CAAP only)
6. Align incentives at the level of the individual, business and
industry, community, regional and state level to result in
adaptation actions (CAAP only)
7. Enact a 30-year, rolling “climate change compliance”
requirement for all development and infrastructure activities
The Puzzle of CA Acting Globally While
Talking Locally
Precedent setting state mitigation policy on the “collective good”
dimension of the climate change challenge, of benefit to the 7
billion people on the planet, i.e., AB32.
Inaction on the “selective good” dimension of direct benefit to the
38 million Californians, i.e., no comparable adaptation state
policy on the needs of the state.
A Provisional Explanation of
the Puzzle
John Kingdon’s three streams theory of policy adoption
• Problem recognition
• Available policy ‘solutions’
• Political timing
[John Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, 2003]
Problem stream – Has a ‘condition’ been defined as a
public policy ‘problem’?
• Yes for mitigation: IPCC, UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change; U.S. debate on
carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade; CA’s AB32
• Nothing comparable for adaptation (although, the
Weather Channel’s dramatization of extreme weather
events and Hurricane Sandy nationally and the CA
Energy Commission reports on CA’s vulnerabilities)
Policy stream – Are there plausible policy responses
waiting in the wings?
• Yes for mitigation: IPCC GHG emissions reduction target for
2050; dovetailing of GHG reductions with local and state
Clean Air goals; studies showing net jobs gains from green
investment
• Nothing comparable for adaptation: Absence of an IPCC or
other goal or target for adaptation, e.g., requiring that all
development and infrastructure be capable of withstanding a
sea-level rise, of 1 -2 meters
Political stream – Is the convergence of political forces
sufficient to place the problem on the political
agenda?
• Yes for mitigation: a Governor willing to champion
and expend political capital and a legislature
sympathetic to the environmental community
• No for adaptation… at least not yet
• Proposed legislation on hold in the legislature
• Silence on the part of the governor
• The shifting political winds and partisan gridlock in the U.S.
between 2006 versus 2013
Selected papers on climate change
Daniel Mazmanian, John Jurewitz, & Hal Nelson (forthcoming), “A Governing
Framework for Climate Change Adaptation for the Built Environment,” Symposium
on Governing Adaptation, ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY.
Daniel A. Mazmanian, Hal T. Nelson, & John Jurewitz (2013), “Climate Change
Policy: A Race to the Top,” Ch. 16 in GOVERNING CALIFORNIA: POLITICS,
GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC POLICY IN THE GOLDEN STATE, 3rd Edition,
Berkeley Public Policy Press, University of California, Berkeley.
Daniel A. Mazmanian, John Jurewitz, & Hal T. Nelson (2013), “The Paradox of
‘Acting Globally While Thinking Locally’: Discordance in Climate Change Adaptation
Policy Formation”, JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT & DEVELOPMENT, 22(2):
186-206.
Daniel Mazmanian, John Jurewitz, & Hal Nelson (2008), “California’s Climate
Change Policy: The Case of a Subnational State Actor Tackling a Global Challenge,”
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT, Vol. 14, No.4.