Transcript Drivers of ecosystem service change

Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation
in Dynamic Ecosystems
(RUBICODE)
www.rubicode.net
Drivers of Ecosystem Service Provision
For further information contact Mark Rounsevell (email: [email protected])
Funded under the European Commission
Sixth Framework Programme
Contract Number: 036890
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
What are drivers?
• Drivers (indirect drivers*) are the underlying causes of
change in ecosystems. They are exogenous to the ecosystem
and are described using narrative storylines.
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• Pressures (direct drivers*) are the variables that quantify the
relevant drivers. They are endogenous to the ecosystem and
are represented in scenarios.
• For the purpose of this discussion we will consider both
drivers and pressures.
* Millenium Ecosystem Assessment terminology
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
Types of drivers
Drivers (indirect drivers)
Pressures (direct drivers)
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Demography
Economy
Socio-political
Scientific and
technological
Culture and religion
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Land use/cover change (e.g. agricultural expansion
or reduction, urban expansion, land and soil
degradation, deforestation, habitat fragmentation)
Harvest and resource consumption, including overexploitation (e.g. wood extractions, mining, fishing
and harvesting of species)
Species introduction/removal (e.g. invasives, GM
organisms, removal of fish)
Climate variability and change (e.g. temperature,
precipitation, sea level, extremes, forest fires)
Air pollution (e.g. greenhouse gases, acidification,
CO2 enrichment)
External inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers, pest
control chemicals)
Natural, physical, biological (e.g. volcanoes,
evolution)
War (e.g. testing and usage of weaponry and bombs)
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Review of drivers
• Synthesised existing knowledge on drivers of environmental
change in order to highlight commonalities, strengths and
limitations.
• Demography is the most referenced and discussed indirect
driver of environmental change.
• Land use and cover change, and climate variability and
change are the most commonly referenced direct drivers.
• Natural, physical and biological phenomena, diseases and
wars are the least discussed direct drivers.
• The majority of studies focus on one spatial scale
exclusively.
• Confusion over differing definitions and terminology needs
to be addressed to facilitate the rapid exchange of
comparable information.
Source: Anastasopoulou et al. (2007). http://www.rubicode.net/rubicode/RUBICODE_Review_on_Drivers.pdf
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
What are scenarios?
• Explorations of possible or plausible futures, for which
an underlying set of assumptions have been made.
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• They are used to demonstrate the drivers underpinning
uncertain futures and in showing the consequences to
policy-makers.
• They are not predictions!!
Change in cropland
area (for food
production) by
2080 compared to
baseline (%) for the
4 SRES storylines
and HADCM3
After: Schröter et al. (2005).
Ecosystem service supply and
vulnerability to global change in
Europe. Science, 310 (5752),
1333-1337
Change in
European
cropland areas
for a range of
scenario
studies
Global studies
= 1, 2 (Image),
3, 4, 5
Regional studies
= 6 (Ateam),
7 (Eururalis)
Source: Busch, G. (2007). Future European agricultural landscapes - What can we learn from
existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
Frameworks for driver assessment: DPSIR
Qualitative
storylines
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Quantitative
Scenarios
DRIVERS
PRESSURES
Indicators
STATE
Impact
Assessment
IMPACT
Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
(OECD), as used by the European
Environment Agency
RESPONSE
Feedback
Policy
Adaptation
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
A simple representation of the relationships between drivers,
socio-ecological systems and ecosystem services
Social-ecological systems
SES …
SES 2
SES 1
Ecosystem
Services
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Multiple
Drivers
Service
Providers
People
Source: Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dawson, T.P. and Harrison, P.A. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess
the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation
Framework for the Ecosystem Service Provision (FESP)
Social-Ecological System
States
Drivers
e.g. Economy
Demography
Society
Technology
(exogenous)
Baseline/Futures
Supporting
system
Service
Providing
Units
(SPUs)
Baseline/Futures
Ecosystem
service
beneficiaries
(ESB)
Pressures
e.g. Climate
change
Land use change
Air pollution
(endogenous)
Mitigation
Ecosystem
service
providers
(ESP)
Adaptation
Responses
Policy, strategic
decisions and
management
strategies
Impact
on
service
provision
Valuation of
services
and
alternatives
Trade-offs
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
Ecosystem Service Beneficiaries
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• Services, as a concept, are only relevant within the
context of service beneficiaries.
• The attributes of the beneficiaries, as a component part
of an ecosystem, are as important as the ecological
attributes.
Step 1
Define ESBs, their
attributes, conflicts and
level of service demand
Step 2
Define services provided
to ESBs and their spatiotemporal scale
Source: Rounsevell et al. (in review).
A conceptual framework to assess the
effects of environmental change on
ecosystem services. Submitted to
Biodiversity and Conservation.
Steps in implementing the FESP approach
Step 3
Define ESPs, their
service supply attributes
and supporting systems
Step 4
Define the drivers and
pressures that affect the
ESPs and ESBs
Step 7
Assess responses
(mitigation and
adaptation)
Step 5
Quantify impacts on
services
Step 6
Valuation of service
provision and
alternatives
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
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An example: seed dispersal in the
Stockholm National Urban Park
Source: Hougner et al. (2006). Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the
Stockholm National Urban Park. Ecological Economics, 59: 364-374
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
The acorn dispersal service
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85 % of oaks in the park are
estimated to result from natural
regeneration by the European jay
(Garrulus glandarius)
How many pairs of jays
does it take to provide
this service?
The answer is 12 jay pairs
per year over 14 years
The Stockholm Urban Park (Socio-ecological system)
States
Drivers
Macroeconomics,
EU regulations/policies
Global climate change
Consumer trends
Technology
(exogenous)
Oaks &
Coniferous
forest
(Supporting)
SPU threshold
(12 breeding
pairs)
Scenarios
Urban
Population
(ESB)
Jays
(ESP)
Pressures
Storylines
Provision of cultural
& aesthetic
services
Land cover changes
Local climate,
Local air, water, soil pollution
Alien species,
Increases/decreases in visitors
(endogenous)
Adaptation
(application/
implementation)
Valuation of
alternatives
Responses
Mitigation policy
Protection policies
Seeding/planting regimes
Trade-offs
Planting or
seeding by
humans
= 16,800
€/jay pair
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
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Adaptation & mitigation in FESP
• Identifies the mechanisms of either mitigation or adaptation
to the environmental change problem through the effect of
response strategies on specific pressure or state variables.
• Mitigation seeks to reduce the severity of the pressures
(e.g. use of irrigation to offset yield losses due to reduced
precipitation).
• Adaptation addresses the capacity of the system to cope
with changing pressures (e.g. changing crop planting dates
to account for changing growing seasons).
• The social-ecological system is bounded hence responses
cannot (normally) influence external drivers.
• However, society can choose to ‘internalise’ drivers (e.g.
CAP maintains European food security by decoupling
global markets (external) from agricultural prices).
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
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Sustainable properties of
dynamic systems
Endogenous
Exogenous
State
Cyclical
stability
STABILITY
(steady state)
Constant
stability
Endogenous,
pressures
Time
State
Perturbation/driver
RESILIENCE
Exogenous
perturbations
or drivers
New
Steady
State?
Resistance
Robustness
Resilience
Time
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
Properties of Durability (endogenous) and
Robustness (exogenous) arise from a systems
response to a chronic or enduring pressure
State
No Steady
State
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Shifting trend
Time
Examples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous)
Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems
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Research needs
• Promotion of consistency in the definition of system
boundaries (and the associated exogenous drivers and
endogenous pressures).
• Identification of those components of scenarios where
uncertainty can be quantified and which variables have high
or low uncertainty.
• Development of participatory approaches to scenario
construction that builds on a range of stakeholder
perspectives.
• Development of scenarios of drivers/pressures that effect
ecosystem service beneficiaries.
• Development of conditional probabilistic futures.
• Development of shock or ‘wildcard’ scenarios.