Transcript water security final

Water scarcity
in the Arab
world:
how to get
from ‘crisis’ to
‘sustainable’?
Rania el Masri, Ph.D.
Environment and Energy Policy
Specialist
Cairo, May 8, 2012
2
State of our water
commons
3
Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007
(m3/capita/yr)
Algeria
Bahrain
Djibouti
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Mauritania
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Tunisia
UAE
Yemen
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
4
Total renewable water resources per capita
(2008) (m3/capita/yr)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Water scarcity level (< 1000)
1000
Water Crisis level (< 500)
500
0
Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)
5
Total renewable water resources per capita
(2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr)
4,000.00
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
Water scarcity level (< 1000)
Water Crisis level (< 500)
500.00
Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)
-
6
20000
18000
Freshwater availability: 1955-2025
(m3/capita/yr)
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1955
1990
2000
2025
7
Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999;
projections for 2025
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1960
1999
2025
8
Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 annual per capita water supply (m3/capita/yr)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
9
Population Percent change, 1961-2007
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
10
Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining…
Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010
11
Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
2001
2025
12
population growth: 1950-2050
Arab region: among the
fastest population growth
rates (> 2%/year)
 GCC population: to
double by 2040
 Maghreb population:
to double by 2060
13
State of our water commons

Decreasing supply


Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined
Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita)


Population growth
Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and
social demands
Plus
Projected impacts of climate change
decreasing supply and increasing
demand
14
Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050
Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.
15
State of our water
commons: leakage
16
Water supply and uses
For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of
the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop.
(UNDP, HDR2006)
17
Area equipped for irrigation
Rainfed cultivated area
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Although irrigated agriculture accounts for more than 80% of
water use in the region, irrigated areas are limited and
represent only 29% of the arable lands and 32% of the
cultivated areas
Iraq
Libya
Syria
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
UAE
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Yemen
Lebanon
Somalia
Oman
Algeria
Qatar
Mauritania
Jordan
Bahrain
Kuwait
Djibouti
0
18
Unaccounted-for Water (%) (2010)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011
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Impacts of our water crisis
20
Impact of water crisis: who gets water?
70
60
Population without
access to improved
water sources (2010)
50
40
30
20
10
UAE
Qatar
Lebanon
Kuwait
Egypt
Jordan
Comoros
Tunisia
Syria
Oman
Djibouti
OPT
Morocco
Algeria
Iraq
Sudan
Yemen
Libya
Mauritania
Somalia
0
100
90
Internal differences in
access to improved
water sources (2010)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Djibouti
Iraq
Morocco Oman
Rural
Somalia
Urban
Sudan
Yemen
21
Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?
80
70
Population
without access
to improved
sanitation
facilities (2010)
60
50
40
30
20
10
Qatar
Lebanon
Kuwait
Oman
UAE
Jordan
Libya
Syria
Egypt
Algeria
OPT
Tunisia
Iraq
Morocco
Yemen
Djibouti
Comoros
Sudan
Mauritania
Somalia
0
100
90
80
Internal differences
in access to
improved sanitation
facilities (2010)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Rural
Urban
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(Potential) impacts of decreased
supply and Increased demand
 Direct


impacts
… increased cost
… decreased quality (eg: increased
salinization)
 Indirect



impacts
… increased poverty
… increased health risks
…risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector
 Decreased
ecosystem health
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Responses to our water crisis:
getting to sustainable
24
DRIVERS
HUMAN SOCIETY
Population growth
PRESSURES
Increased
consumption
IMPACTS
Increased resource
exploitation
RESPONSES
Climate change
Mitigation and adaptation
Agricultural
mismanagement
State: water security crisis
Decreasing supply
Decreasing quality
ENVIRONMENT
Human well-being:
Economic, Ecosystem
social
services
goods &
Farmer
services
liveilhoods
25
Current Responses

Desalination




Privatization




GCC: more than 50% of their domestic water use
consumption comes from desalination
Energy usage: drinking oil?
Impact on marine life
UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: PPP
Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon)
Risk of cost
Reuse of drainage water


Practiced on a large scale in Egypt
More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
26
Additional necessary
responses
Reduce consumption (from repairing
infrastructure to family planning)
 Develop a water commons
 Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’
 Plan for all water resources in a
comprehensive package
 Sequential water use
 Wise agricultural management (from
exporting virtual water to farmer support)
 Water as a human right

27
DRIVERS
HUMAN SOCIETY
Population growth
Increased
consumption
PRESSURES
IMPACTS
Increased resource
exploitation
Climate change
Agricultural
mismanagement
RESPONSES
• Reduce consumption
• Develop a water
commons
• Water as a human
right
State: water security crisis
Decreasing supply
Decreasing quality
ENVIRONMENT
Human well-being:
Economic, Ecosystem
social
services
goods &
Farmer
services
liveilhoods
28
Water under occupation
and apartheid: Palestine
Theft of Palestinian Water
29