Transcript Dr. Gabor Zovanyi - Fresh Outlook Foundation

THE FIVE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS
ABOUT GROWTH
LEARNED OVER THE COURSE OF MY CAREER
#1
Most people are captives of a cultural
story that equates growth with progress.
A cultural story that asserts growth as
inevitable, necessary, desirable, and
possible.
Daniel Quinn’s 1995 novel Ishmael:
A culture is a people
enacting a story.
We are currently enacting
a story that compels us to
destroy the world in order
to live.
#2
Growth is inherently unsustainable
“It is development that can have the attribute of
sustainability, not growth.” Herman E. Daly
• Growth cannot be continued indefinitely.
• The term “sustainable growth”
represents a moronic oxymoron
CASSA: Center for the Advancement
of the Steady State Economy
Position statement:
There is an inherent conflict between economic
growth and environmental protection based on
the ecological principle of competitive exclusion
 US Society for Ecological Economics
 The Wildlife Society
 North American Section of the Society
for Conservation Biology
#3
More than two decades of mounting
evidence confirms existent ecological
limits to growth.
The current level of human demands on earth’s
ecosystems represents unsustainable behavior that
can only be maintained over the short term.
The collective ecological footprint of humans is
degrading and destroying global ecosystems and
their essential life-support services.
Existent Ecological Limits
to Growth
1991: Ecological Society of America
Declared the existing scale of the human
enterprise was “threatening the sustainability
of Earth’s life-support systems”
Ecological life-support services:
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Maintain a benign mix of atmospheric gases
Control climate
Regulate the hydrologic cycle
Purify air and water
Decompose wastes
Regenerate soil nutrients
Provide pest control and pollination
Create and maintain biodiversity
1991 & 1992: Paul Ehrlich & Edward O. Wilson
Warned that under current trends fully
50 percent of species on the planet could be
eliminated by 2050
1997: Research on per capita ecological footprints
Revealed the footprint of humanity already
exceeded the planet’s ecological capacity
to sustain the human enterprise
2005: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Reported some 60 percent of the ecosystems
that support life on Earth are being degraded
or used unsustainably
2007:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Called for a reduction of 80 percent
in global emissions from 1990 levels to avert
“dangerous anthropogenic climate change”
IPCC Conclusions:
 A “safe” level of warming lies at 2° C (3.6° F)
 Even the 1° C (1.8° F) warming to date
represents significant risks
 Most models suggest doubling carbon dioxide
will lead to a temperature rise of 3° C (5.4° F)
 With feedback processes a 2010 study suggests
a doubling would produce an increase of 9.6° C
(17.3° F) with disastrous consequences
2009: Exceeded “planetary boundaries”
Humanity has already pushed 3 of Earth’s 9
biophysical processes beyond the planet’s ability
to self-regulate, with current trends leading to
“catastrophic consequences”
Planetary Boundaries:
 Boundaries for the rate of biodiversity loss,
climate change, and human interference with
the nitrogen cycle have already been exceeded
 Boundaries for the phosphorus cycle,
stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean
acidification, global freshwater use, change in
land use, atmospheric aerosol loading, and
chemical pollution are rapidly approaching
2010: 8th Living Planet Report
Declared the collective ecological footprint
of humankind exceeds Earth’s biocapacity by
50 percent
2012: Threat of a “state shift” in global ecosystem
Global ecosystem rapidly approaching a planetaryscale critical transition or “state shift” as a result of
human interference, with threats to the planet’s
ability to sustain us and other species
#4
The pro-growth stance of the planning
profession impedes the necessary
paradigm shift to a no-growth and
degrowth future.
Growth-management supports the growth imperative.
The smart-growth movement represents continued
professional planning support for growth.
Current growth-management programs
 Growth management represents
an institutionalized form of support
for the growth imperative
 Management programs endorse inevitable,
normal, realistic, reasonable, responsible,
proper, sensible, legitimate, balanced, and
smart growth
 Members of the management movement
condemn no-growth initiatives as inefficient,
unjust, and irresponsible responses to growth
Adoption of no-growth and
degrowth strategies
 Reject current growth-management programs
due to their growth-accommodation orientation
 Implement political, economic, and planning
and regulatory strategies to stop growth
 Devise a sustainable no-growth future, i.e., likely
social, political, economic, and physical features
of no-growth communities
Strategies to stop growth
 Political: eliminate the pro-growth focus
of local government by election or initiative
 Economic: stop public subsidies
for infrastructure
 Planning & regulatory: modify
community comprehensive plans
and land-use regulations in ways that
close out options for further growth
#5
A sustainable no-growth future would be
possible under community economics
and new urbanism lifestyles.
Features of community economics: needs-based
economies directed at self-sufficiency through a diverse
set of import-substitution businesses
Features of new urbanism: urban places downsized and
redesigned to levels that are ecologically sustainable
within the capabilities of their bioregions
Prospects for realizing
no-growth communities
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Bioregionalism
Voluntary Simplicity
Slow Food
Ecovillages
Take Back Your Time
Transition Town
Degrowth