Transcript eman_calleja-_climate_change_and_european_islands

Climate change and European
islands
Dr. Eman Calleja Ph.D.
Islands and Small States Institute
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Structure of my talk
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Why European
islands?
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Diversity of
threats facing
the four island
regions
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Identify threats
common to
islands
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Implications
and need for
further
research
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Why European islands?
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Four different island regions
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Mediterranean islands
• The most populated of the four island regions
• Has the highest number of tertiary research institutions
• The biggest climate change related threat facing the region
• More likely to come from a lengthening of the dry season
through a decrease in summer rainfall, than a decrease in
annual rainfall
• A drying trend has been observed across many islands
• Demand has already outstripped supply of freshwater in the
more populated islands
• A northward expansion of the arid regime is expected
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• Will lead to salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers
• Smaller islands are particularly vulnerable
• Lack of water resources could lead to conflicts between water
users
• Lack of sufficient water resources
• Tourist numbers in vulnerable smaller islands might need to be
restricted
• Hotter summers that could scare northern European tourists
• Water deficits, soil salinisation and higher temperatures
• Adaptation needed: through water storage and use of reclaimed
water
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Macaronesian islands
• The biggest climate change related threat facing the region
• An inversion of the trade winds would affect the relict Laurel
forests
• Lower lying eastern canaries at risk from sea level rise
• Shift in trade winds to east - west could bring tropical diseases
and pests from Africa
• Risk to agriculture and public health
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Baltic islands
• Hundreds of islands belonging to 6 EU member states
• At least 20 are larger than 150km2 and contain populations of
between 1,000 and 80,000 people
• Milder conditions and longer growing season
• Improvement in conditions for crop production and extension of
cultivable areas
• Evidence exists of an increase in coastal erosion in various
islands
• Reduction in winter sea ice and increase in wave height
exacerbates problem
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North Atlantic and Arctic islands
• Marine species include fish stocks and cetaceans
• Others include bird populations decreasing in various islands
• Could affect fisheries and ecotourism sectors in these isolated
islands
• Milder conditions and longer growing season
• Improvement in conditions for crop production and extension of
cultivable areas
• Milder conditions for grazing animals
• Opportunities to grow new crops and extend cultivation of others
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• Leads to increased coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure
• Isolated island communities at risk from being cut off during
more frequent storm events
• Leads to loss of fishing days and shipping to and from islands
• Erosion of coastal sand dunes and barrier islands during severe
storms increased vulnerability to coastal infrastructure
• Locals facing increased insurance premiums
• Social science studies have shown that locals feel the need for
adaptation
• Disagreement with central government and island populations on
who should administer adaptation funds
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Island specific vulnerabilities?
• Islands important centers of
biodiversity
• Island species often cannot
shift their range unlike
continental species
• High altitude species are at
particular risk, since they
might have nowhere to go.
• Natural corridors for
migration are often not
available due to intensive
land use practices on
islands
• Habitat specialists, species
with a restricted distribution
and endemic species are
the most vulnerable
• Islands have a high
coastline to landmass ratio,
exposing a greater
proportion of their territory to
SLR
• Most European islands do
not have access to their own
financial resources but
depend on central
governments
• Salinisation of groundwater
in the Mediterranean
• Cost of adaptation is often
higher in islands than in
continental areas due to
higher coast/land ratio and
greater vulnerability to
impacts
• Coastal erosion in Atlantic
and Baltic islands
• Vulnerable to extreme storm
events affecting coastal
infrastructure and
connectivity to the island
• Islands are exposed to
disproportionate costs of
impacts from SLR and
extreme storm events
• Many European island
residents have a lower GDP,
implying a greater cost per
capita for private adaptation
• Remote islands with small
populations are the most
vulnerable
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Need for further research
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Thanks for your attention
Dr. Eman Calleja
[email protected]
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