Transcript climate is the

PAGS
E
PFST
Bacon & Eggheads Breakfast
Petit-déjeuner avec des têtes à Papineau
Gordon McBean
Western University
Reducing Risks, Gaining Benefits – Coping with Weird
Weather in a Changing Climate
Réduire les risques et obtenir des avantages : s’adapter
à la météo incertaine dans le contexte des
changements climatiquess
Supported by
Appuyé par
Professor Gordon McBean
C.M., O.Ont, Ph.D., FRSC
Chair, Canadian Climate Forum
Centre for Environment and Sustainability
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Western University
President-elect
International Council for Sceince
A Changing Climate
CLIMATE IS THE “STATISTICS OF WEATHER”
AND THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
0.18
0.13
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 4
IPCC (2007) - Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of
the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest
years in the instrumental record of global surface
temperature (since 1850).
The World Meteorological Organization (2011): “2010
ranked as the warmest year on record, together with 2005 and
1998”. “The ten warmest years on record have all occurred
since 1998. Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global
temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990
average, and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year
period since the beginning of instrumental climate records.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 5
Number
Weather-climate related disasters in Canada (1900-2011)
Severe storms
Floods
Wildfire
10 Year Period
* Only two years of decade
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 6
Projections for the future climate
and “weird” weather.
“Weird” is unusual and the opposite of
“normal”.
In climate we define “normal” in terms
of 30-y (or at least decadal) means and
statistics.
PROJECTED WARMING IN THE FUTURE
FUTURE
GROWTH
OF 3-5°
0.2+
0.18
0.13
SCIENCE
UNCERTAINTY
WARMING
OC PER DECADE
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 8
Focus on 2050
SEASONAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
(relative to 1961–1990)
WINTER
SUMMER
4.5°C
3.5°C
3.5°C
Canada will warm more than global average warming
+ 1.5C by 2050
Much warmer winters and warmer summers
by 2050.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 9
SEASONAL CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION BY 2050
(relative to 1961–1990)
WINTER
SUMMER
Hot weather and
reduced rain –
desertification risk
30%
10%
More precipitation in
winters by 2050.
More rain and less snow.
<10%
Summers
– variable change.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 10
% CHANGES IN PROJECTED SNOW DEPTH
(MARCH 2050)
UP TO 100% REDUCTIONS ACROSS MIDLATITUDES
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 11
Weird Weather in a Changing
Climate and its Costs
Weird (unusual) Weather will
become the new “normal”.
CANADIANS AND PEOPLE AROUND
THE GLOBE WILL NEED TO
“ADAPT”:
“making adjustments in our decisions,
activities and thinking because of observed
or expected changes in climate, in order to
moderate harm or take advantage of new
REDUCING
RISKS, GAINING
opportunities.”
BENEFITS – COPING WITH WEIRD
WEATHER IN A CHANGING
CLIMATE
WEIRD WEATHER – HOW TO ADAPT?
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 13
Human Health in a Changing Climate:
A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and
Adaptive Capacity (2008)
• “Climate change is expected to
increase risk to the health of
Canadians through many
pathways: they food they eat,
the air they breathe, the water
they drink, and their exposure
to extreme weather events and
infectious diseases found in
nature.”
• “Climate change is the biggest
global health threat of the 21st
century”
– Lancet and UCL, 2009
14
NUMBER OF HOT DAYS* PER YEAR
IN EUROPE: RECORD SETTING AUGUST 2003
(MORE THAN 70,000 DEATHS) WILL BE
EVERY SECOND SUMMER BY MID-CENTURY
8
22
37
68
Projected
Observed
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 15
Extreme Events
MORE HOT DAYS
The 8 day heat event in 2009 in
the Vancouver and Lower Fraser
area caused 134 deaths
A 1990’s 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely
to become a 1-in-3-5 (Year) event by
2050.
4-6 TIMES AS MANY HOT DAYS.
By 2050, for every 100,000 people,
Heat 6-8
warnings
- Water
additional
deaths and about
Green
space and
shade
$500,000
costs–
across southern
Design of structures
Canada.
– 2011: Paying
Price: The Economic Costs of
AttentionNRTEE
to elderly
and the
handicapped
Climate Change for Canada
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 16
Extreme Events
FREEZING RAIN
Eastern Canada Ice Storm 1998
30+ deaths $5 b + damages
Months of impact
Extreme events - the unborn and children :
“Children whose mother experienced high stress
(during the Quebec 1998 ice storm) scored lower on IQ
and language performance tests than those whose
mothers had less stress.”
Freezing rain events by 2050
Ottawa –Montreal-Quebec City: 50%
INCREASE in the number of freezing rain
events of more than 4 hours. Close to 80%
increase of events of more than 6 hours.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 17
Extreme Events
SUMMER STORMS
Toronto Rain/Wind Event 2005
$624 m insured losses
Calgary Rain/Wind – 2010 – $1B
Calgary Rain/Wind – 2009 – $362 m
SW Ontario Rain/Wind –2009 – $482 m
Calgary Hail – 1991 – $885 m
By 2050, a 1990’s 1-in-20 year
annual maximum daily
precipitation amount is likely to
become a 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 year
event.
ABOUT TWICE AS MANY HEAVY
SUMMER STORMS.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 18
Extreme Events
SUMMER STORMS –
TORNADOES
With more heavy
precipitation and hot
days -Increased risk of
tornadoes
Tornadoes
Goderich tornado – 2011
GTA (Vaughan) tornado – 2009
Pine Lake - 2000
Edmonton tornado – 1987
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 19
•
•
•
•
COPING WITH WEIRD WEATHER
Improved observations
and predictions
Meteorological
Service design
Better
structural
Environment Canada
of homes and property.
Insurance Research
Laboratory for Better
Homes
Wind Engineering,
Energy and Environment
Dome
Extreme Events
FLOODING
By 2050, with about twice as
many heavy precipitation
events, more floods are
projected.
Flooding
Alberta – 2005 – $327 m
Flood warnings
Saguenay – 1996 – $271 m
– 1993 – $252 m
Dykes, waterWinnipeg
control
Land-use planning
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 21
The 1999-2004 Drought
2002
0-20% of expected yield
for spring wheat, barley,
canola, and field peas
1999-2004 Prairie
Drought
Consul,
SK
- prelude of future
droughts.
Reduce vulnerability In 2001 and 2002 drought years:
early warning and more
• $5.8 billion in lost GDP
lead time for adaptations.
• 41,000+ jobs lost
• 5 times as many forest fires in Alberta
• Blowing dust - contributing factor in two fatalities
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 22
Extreme Events
WILDFIRES
Slave Lake Fire 2011
$700 m insured losses
Kelowna – 2003 – $227 m
Fire proofing
By 2030
Land-use planning
Fire control - warnings
MORE THAN 50% INCREASE
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 23
Climate Change and Its Impact on Horticulture in
Apple
Crop
in
Ontario
Ontario
2012 – 80% lost
•Better predictions
•Adaptations
•Crop selection
BIOTRON
Climate Change/Dealing
with Adverse Weather
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 24
ATLANTIC CANADA
Storm Warnings
Sea Level Rise – and Hurricanes with Stronger Winds
Coastal Defences
Structural and
Community Preparedness
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 25
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer
A toolkit to build adaptive capacity on Canada’s south coasts
SEA LEVEL RISEall our
- JanuaryImpacting
2013
coasts
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 26
Current Impacts
and Responses
Greater Vancouver
– sea level rise
•1m of SLR would cause an about
$12B in damages to City of
Vancouver alone.
•Much of Vancouver’s infrastructure
was built to historical standards and
will require significant
reinforcement.
•In 2011, BCMoE issued guidelines
specifying that coastal infrastructure
should be designed to withstand 1.2m
over 100 years (=3.3m with storm
surge and king tide conditions); 2m
over 200 years.
IN THE NORTH
Cold winters are needed in order to build roads over otherwise
impassable lakes and muskeg.
Most years the Tibbitt to Contwoyto winter road is open 70
days, but the warm winter of 2005-06 meant only 50 days of use
thanks to a late start and early closure. Only 6,841 loads out of
the planned 9,000 loads made it by truck into the Diavik
Diamond Mine, which then had to spend tens of millions of
dollars flying in 13,000 tonnes of dry cargo and 11,000 tonnes of
fuel.
WITH THE WARMER CLIMATE, THIS WILL BE A MUCH
BIGGER PROBLEM
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 28
Climate Change – as a national
security issue
Arctic Sovereignty
• Northwest Passage
• Continental Shelf
Extension
• Exploration and
exploitation of Arctic
resources
Integrated Environmental Prediction –
on all times scales
Informing decision making for coping with the weather in a
changing climate
Water Resources:
Agriculture:Disaster
AnalysisRisk
of Reduction:
Food security: Monthly
toregional scale
Applying
Predicting hazardous
past weather observations
decadal predictions to
warn model
climate
weather
conditions and
to manage climate
risks;
local, national and
predictions to inform
disseminating
tailored and
this informs crop
choice and
international communities
climate change
timely
warnings to reduce
planting date
to optimise
of expected drought
adaptation decisions.
the
impact
on
yields and minimise crop vulnerable
conditions.
failure risk.communities.
UK Met Office
Coastal Cities at Risk Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate
Change in Coastal Megacities
Vancouver, Bangkok, Manila, Lagos
Partnering with Shanghai and others
2011-2016
Better planned and safer cities and reduced socioeconomic impacts as the climate changes.
Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our
country partners
SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION
• Canada’s climate is changing and these
weather trends are already affecting
Canadians;
• Severe weather is projected to increase over
the next 40 years and beyond;
• Information about weather and climate on
times scales from now to next decades will
allow public and private sector leaders to
reduce risks and gain benefits;
• Science, engineering and technology provide
solutions.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 32
The End
Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes
Thank you for your attention