Transcript Vulnerability of Moroccan coastal zones to sea level rise

Vulnerability of Moroccan coastal zones to sea
level rise and shoreline erosion
Abdellatif Khattabi
Email: [email protected]
Arab Climate Resilience Initiative
Cairo: 20-21 September, 2010
Coast of Morocco
Typologie
des côtes
marocaines
Major forces of change in Moroccan coastal zones
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
demography/urbanization
tourism
agriculture
fishing
industry
Transport
Climate change
• Low microbiologic and physico-chemical qualities of
water nearby some urban settlements (pollution by
liquid effluents and solid waste);
• coastal erosion (natural phenomena and human
intervention –sand mining, urbanization);
• pollution and salinisation of aquifers (sea water
intrusion, intensive agriculture)
• loss of coastal ecosystems.
Comparison of COED and Cost of protection
% of GDP
7,00
6,00
5,00
4,00
COED, % of GDP
Cost of protection,
% of GDP
3,00
2,00
1,00
0,00
Algeria
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Impacts of Changing Climates on Coasts
The potential threats (IPCC 4rth
report)
–
–
–
–
More frequent storms
sea level rise
a change in landscapes
shifts in biological diversity
 Morocco by 2020 (SNC, 2001)
 Average temperature increase
 Diminishing precipitations
 Diminishing water resources
 Sea level increase
Potential damages to:
• infrastructure
• Economic activities (tourism,
fisheries)
• cultural assets
 Increasing Storms frequency
 Varying waves regime
Vulnerability assessment
Physical impacts
on coastal zones
Sea level rise
Submersion of
low laying coasts
Coastal erosion
Coastal
morphology
Natural
ecosystems
Water resources
Y
Y
Sea water
intrusion into
aquifers
-
Y
Y
Y
Y
-
Y
Coastal
infrastructures
Y
Y
-
Vulnerability assessment criteria and approach
Natural vulnerability
Socioeconomic vulnerability
Morphology/topography
Population density
Presence/absence of natural defenses
Coastal infrastructures
Degree of exposure
Importance of economic sectors
PI= f(exposure, sensibility)
V=f(PI, AC)
Vulnerability of Moroccan CZ
Dégradation du littoral de Tanger
High vulnerability
Medium vulnerability
Plage de TAMARES 2 en 2003
7
Low vulnerability
(M’hammedi, 2005)
Enabling stakeholders in Moroccan coastal management to
develop sustainable climate change adaptation policies and
plans
(2007-2010)
www.accma-maroc.com
o Beni Ensar
o Nador
o Kariate Arekmane
Objectives:
The global objective is to develop capacity for, and contribute to, policy and
decision-making for strategic coastal land use planning and management, to
the purpose of reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to the
impacts of sea level rise, coastal flooding, and related extreme weather
events.
Sediment transport
the non-cohesive Sediment Transport (ST-MIKE21) module has been applied.
The values of annual mean potential sediment transport have been computed in different sections,
extrapolated in m3/year .
Sections equidistant (1500 m), parallel one to each other,
The sediment discharges calculated represent the total annual potential transport generated by the
contribution, for each grid, of the L and R waves, opportunely weighed on its annual frequency of
occurrence.
Coastline evolution
735000,000000
742000,000000
520000,000000
728000,000000
517000,000000
1
29
Passe de
Boukâna
Légende
1,25
2,5
13
5
116
Ligne de côte 1986
Ligne de côte 2003
Ligne de côte 2006
Ligne de base 1
< -1 m/an
-1 ; 1 m/an
0
> 1 m/an
5
Km
505000,000000
103
508000,000000
511000,000000
56
514000,000000
• EPR : - 0,44 m/an
• LRR : - 0,43 m/an
Socioeconomic Vulnerability
Project outputs
IPCC scenarios downscaling
Vulnerability maps of various sectors
(socioeconomic and natural systems)
Good adaptation practices
Manual on education and raising awareness on
CC adaptation
Gender and CC, adaptation options
Small scale fisheries and adaptation to climate
change
Recommendations on how to integrate CC
considerations into planning and legislation
ICZM Plan of Action taking into account the CC
DPSIR Analysis
Drivers:
Urbanisation
Agriculture
Demography
C-Change
Education & awareness raising (C-change);
Land Planning and management to
meet new challenges (C-change)
Response:
Institutional measures;
Research;
Integrated management
Monitoring
Laws and regulation enforcement,
Pressures:
Construction
Pollution
Overharvesting
Development on shoreline
Immersion; water intrusion
Pollution control;
Restoration of ecosystems;
Erosion control
Conservation measures
Hard measures of protection
Soft measures of protection
State:
Erosion
Salinisation
Pollution
Loss of natural areas
Impact:
Loss of biodiversity
Loss of soil fertility;
Loss of health;
Loss of ecosystem services
Loss of aesthetic values
Loss of economic opportunities
Conclusions
In coastal areas, damage has occurred and will continue (CC potential
effects);
There is a need:
• to integrate between sectors, stakeholders, etc. as climate change
crosses all sectors;
•for medium and long terms planning
•for a strategy of adaptation;
•to communicate and interact;
•for an effective jurisdiction and institutional framework for coastal
areas;
•for research and data acquisition and monitoring.
What is being implemented




Charte of environment and SD under progress
Law on protected areas
Project of Law on coastal zones
adaptation actions (CBA) (fisheries, agriculture, building adaptive
capacity of women)
 the ICZM plan of action with the WB financial support