Transcript IFPRI SRP Irrigation Presentation

IFPRI Water
Policy Research
Irrigation Component
Claudia Ringler, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Andrew
Bell, Tingju Zhu, Hua Xie, and Ephraim Nkonya
IFPRI irrigation work program
Completed
Ongoing
Starting up/
Planned
• Large- and small-scale irrigation potential across Africa
• Water management adaptations to CC in SSEA
• Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA
• Assessing options for water-conserving irrigation in China,
India and Vietnam
• Assessing role of irrigation in agricultural productivity
• Global modeling of irrigation using IMPACT
• Environmental Management Options and Delivery
Mechanisms to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda
• Experimental games to understand collective action and
conjunctive use
• Determinants of adoption for advanced irrigation
technologies
• Nutrition & health benefits of smallholder irrigation
• Institutions for water quality management
Completed Projects
Large- vs. small-scale irrigation, Africa
Combined biophysical and
socioeconomic assessment of
i)
ii)
dam-based irrigation
potential, and
(residual) small-scale
irrigation potential
Input from hydrologic model,
but no hydrologic modeling
Potential additional work:
Large- vs. small-scale irrigation
under climate change
You, L, C. Ringler, U. Wood-Sichra, R. Robertson, S. Wood,T. Zhu, G. Nelson, Z. Guo, and Y. Sun. 2011. What is the Irrigation Potential for
Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36(6): 770-782
Completed Projects
Adaptations for Water Mgmt. in SSEA
Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water supply
Changes in irrigation supply reliability in 2050 for India,
South Asia (excluding India), and Southeast Asia
Ringler, C., N. Cenacchi, A. Cavalieri, W. Salas, D. Spielman, T. Zhu, H. Xie, Y. Sun. 2011. Analysis of Climate Change and Technology
Policies in South and Southeast Asia. Submitted to USAID
Ongoing Projects
Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA
Investigating 8 technologies for smallholder irrigation:
Diesel pumps
Small reservoirs
Ex-situ water harvesting
Treadle pumps
Inland valley rice
Rural electrification
Communal river diversions
In-situ water harvesting
Methods:
i) Ex-ante spatial analysis to filter for areas above ‘threshold’ potential:
Soils
Topography
Runoff
Market access
Surface water access Population density
ii) Biophysical modeling using SWAT to estimate water availability, consumption, and
crop yield under different scenarios of smallholder irrigation development
iii) Economic modeling using DREAM to estimate development impacts on crop prices
iv) Integration of i, ii, and iii results to determine optimal profitable irrigated crop mix,
and the potential application areas of the various irrigation technologies
Ongoing Projects
Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA
Potential application areas of:
20.5M ha (Diesel pumps)
17.3M ha (Treadle pumps)
1.2M ha (Communal river
diversion)
0.3M* ha (Small reservoirs)
*3.2M ha if no capital costs
Xie, H., L. You, B. Wielgosz and C. Ringler. What is the potential for smallholder agricultural water management in Sub-Saharan Africa? An
integrated hydrologic-economic assessment. Agricultural Water Management (under review)
Xie, H., L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. Scanlon. Calibration and evaluation of the SWAT model using GRACE data in modeling
continental hydrology of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (under review).
Ongoing Projects
Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA
Potential application area (in 1000 ha) for motor pumps:
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Swaziland
Botswana
Namibia
Liberia
Lesotho
Togo
South Africa
Senegal
Guinea-Bissau
Burundi
Rwanda
Ghana
Gabon
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Cote d'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Mali
Benin
Congo
Kenya
Madagascar
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Sudan
Mozambique
Chad
Malawi
Angola
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Zambia
Uganda
Congo, DRC
Nigeria
0
Potential additional work:
In-country validation of modeling tool
M&E of agricultural productivity improvements
Impacts of climate variability on irrigation potential
… and many other options
Ongoing Projects
Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania
Kickstart is one of several firms
marketing small-scale, low-cost irrigation
technologies across SSA.
This project evaluates Kickstart
programs in Kenya and Tanzania.
Kickstart’s main products are humanpowered treadle pumps irrigating areas
of up to 2 acres.
Mainly targeting poor areas with limited
access to diesel or technical support.
Nkonya, E., L. Iannotti, B. Sakwa, B. Wielgosz,V. Gandhi, E. Kato, A. Peterman, and M. Jin. Baseline study of Kickstart treadle pumps in
East Africa (2011)
Ongoing Projects
Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania
100%
Female
Joint
Male
75%
50%
25%
0%
Hip pump
MMP
Key preliminary findings:
1.
2.
3.
4.
SMMP
Motorized
pump
Hose pipe
Very low ownership by women
Main market for irrigated product in local villages
All irrigation was for high-value (e.g., vegetable) crops
Pump owners are not the poorest – were also more educated and
more likely to have phones
Ongoing Projects
Water-Saving Irrigation in China/India &
Vietnam
Innovative Water-Saving Irrigation and Investment Priorities for Food
Security and Water Sustainability in China, India and Vietnam
• Local Focus Group Discussions involving farmers and water
managers
• Policy dialogues with national experts and policy makers
• Scenario design – irrigation investment and technology adoption
• Simulation modeling of water balance and irrigation water use
under alternative investment and efficiency scenarios
Ongoing Projects
Global irrigation modeling in IMPACT
Sample topics:
Irrigation Supply Reliability in the Limpopo River Basin
• Role of water in
the global bioeconomy
• Irrigation and food
security, alternative
scenarios (mostly
presentations)
Zhu, T. and C. Ringler. 2012. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin. Water 4(1): 63-84.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w4010063
Ongoing Projects
Env’tal Mgmt. Options to Reduce Malaria
Transmission in Uganda
• Literature review of agriculture-environment-health linkages
• Geographically weighted regression analysis of Uganda
National Household Survey for 2006 to determine localized
agriculture-environment-health linkages
• Statistical analysis of longitudinal data for Uganda to
establish intervention potential for extension, for example,
through FFS for agriculture-health linkages
Projects starting up
Assessing returns to irrigation, Tanzania
Assessment of Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP),
with attention to:
• Quantifying investment returns to a cross-section of irrigation investments
in the ASDP,
• Assessing sustainability of these returns and arrangements for cost
recovery (via water user associations and fee collection, etc.),
• Identifying the key technical, financial, and institutional determinants of
schemes with higher vs. lower investment returns, and
• Evaluating trade-offs of investing in i) strengthening existing schemes, ii)
rehabilitating older schemes, and iii) developing new schemes
Projects starting up
Irrigation and increased ag. productivity
A) Agricultural household surveys (Bangladesh and Pakistan)
for econometric assessment of:
i)
Contribution of irrigation to crop yields/income/
nutrition
ii) Biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of
participation in irrigation
A) SWAT hydrological model to extrapolate survey results to
the entire country (Bangladesh and Pakistan)
Projects starting up
Experimental Games for Strengthening
Collective Action?
Recent research has suggested that participation in experimental games has
impact on behavior following the game
This project aims to evaluate impact of experimental games on collective
action in an irrigation context, in India and Colombia
Partnership with Foundation for Ecological Security (India), Universidad de
Los Andes (Colombia), and Arizona State University (USA)
Pending evidence of positive impact on collective action from games, this
project will apply for funds to scale-up activities
Projects under planning
Additional topics of interest
•
Assessment of smallholder irrigation on community
nutrition and health
•
Energy use in irrigation versus mechanization and
fertilizer—impacts on productivity and food security
•
Institutions and policies for enhanced rural water quality
management
•
Determinants of adoption of advanced irrigation
technologies
Summary and key IFPRI research goals
Current IFPRI work on irrigation is focused on social data
collection (focus groups, surveys, experimental games) coupled
to mathematical modeling, to address (broadly speaking):
• What are the benefits to particular irrigation schemes (such
as smallholder irrigation)
• Who adopts irrigation programs and why (such as advanced
irrigation technologies)
• What are the returns to particular investments in irrigation
schemes (such as canal lining in Pakistan)