Transcript Sustainability & Climate Change - The Way Foreward

“Sustainability & Climate Change”
Challenges & Way forward….
Presented By:
Nalin Rawal
Chief - Business Head
(Agribusiness Solutions)
CLIMATE CHANGE - CHALLANGES
 Rapidly rising greenhouse gases
 Increasing land and sea temperatures
 Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events
 Risk of fresh water availability
 Sustainability of agriculture and food security
CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT
 Warming expected to be more over areas in northern latitudes in 21st century
 Warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for next two decades
 Increases in the amount of precipitation in high latitudes, and decrease in most
subtropical land regions.
 The Drought-affected areas will increase
 Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events more frequent
Weather predictions in Tropics will become more challenging
IMPACT – AGRICULTURE
 The length of growing seasons & yield in semi-arid and arid areas shall decrease
 In some countries 50% yield reduction is expected in rainfed agriculture by 2020
 Crop yields to decrease by 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st
century
 Crop yields expected to increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia
 Expected salinisation and desertification of agricultural land in drier areas of Latin
America
 Increased incidences of Pest Outbreak due to warmer hot days and nights
 Productivity of important crops is projected to decrease
CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT INDIA
Climate Change
Impact on Agriculture
 India witnessing irregular
monsoon / temperature pattern
 change in sowing and harvesting
timings / affecting quality of the
produce
 Large variability of rainfall in
Rajasthan (semi arid regions)
 Changing cropping pattern
 Unseasonal Dust Storms in some
pockets
 Emerging risk to horticultural crops
 More frequent extreme weather
conditions
 Causing sudden outbreak in
incidence of pest and diseases
PROPOSED STRATEGIES
ABOUT SKYMET
An Agriculture Risk Solutions and Weather Monitoring Company
•
Captive network of 2700+ Automated Weather Stations (AWS)
•
Expertise in Crop yield forecasting & Risk Management
•
In house Crop monitoring & yield modeling team
•
In house Remote Sensing & GIS expertise
•
Strong network of 160+ field staff in all major states
PRESENCE
2700+ AWS Locations
15 States
Head Office:
Noida
Regional Office(S) : 4
(Patna, Jaipur, Mumbai & Hyderabad)
SOLUTIONS OFFERED
 Weather Forecasts – short, medium & long range
 Crop yield & acreage estimations
 Live weather data
 Crop Risk management services
 Supply chain solutions
Weather Forecast
WEATHER FORECASTING
2012
2013
2012
2013
2014
Skymet Forecast
95% of LPA
103% of LPA
91% of LPA
Actual Monsoon
93% of LPA
105% of LPA
89% of LPA
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECASTS
Ambegaon (PUNE) – SAMPLE (June – July’13)
45
Weekly Spread View (mm)
40
35
30
Wet Spell
25
20
15
10
Dry Spell
5
0
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
GIS & UAV Based
Crop - Acreage / Health Monitoring
&
Yield Forecasting
CROP ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013)
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1st week of July
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July
Crop
Sowing
Status end
of Season
ACERAGE – PUNJAB DISTRICT WISE PADDY
District wise Paddy acreage
UAV Based Crop Monitoring
UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV)
 Completely automatic & remote controlled
 Ability to reach maximum of 400m from ground
 Captures 1.4 Km x 1.4 Km image (ground
coverage)
 Horizontal coverage in one flight 4Km radius
 Continuously captures video
 Continuously sends images at every 5 sec
 Provides Geo referenced images
UAV IMAGES – 150M
UAV IMAGES – 100M
UAV IMAGES – 75M
UAV IMAGES – 50M
Groundnut
Cotton
WEB PORTAL | UAV BASED FARM MONITORING
WEB PORTAL | UAV BASED FARM MONITORING
PROCESS FLOW - CROP YIELD ESTIMATION
FINAL CROP ESTIMATE – CROP CUTTING EXPERIMENTS
Skymet provides Acreage & Final yield estimation
(95% accuracy)
GUNA – SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOYABEAN CROP
Legend -
Acreage as per Govt. 25th Sep’14
1.95 (Lac Ha)
Remote Sensing based Acreages
1.83 (Lac Ha)
Est. Yield as per CCE/Field Survey 1143 (Kg/Ha)
Est. Production
2.1 (Lac Ton)
- Soybean
Satellite Image – Landsat 8
Acquisition Date – 21th Sep 2014
District – Guna
Resolution - 30M
Real Time Crop Advisory
MODEL – REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY
Current
Weather &
short range
Forecast
(at Block / Taluka/
Distt level)
Real Time
AgroAdvisory
Agri-Domain
Expertise
MODEL – REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY
Paddy (Pusa Basmati 1121)
Current Weather &
Forecast
Actual Condition
Temp-43 0 C ; RH-20%
No Rain / Moisture stress
Crop Advisory
1)
2)
Drain water from nursery and fill fresh
water on daily basis
Delay Transplanting by -7 days
GIS image
 Sales Employee
 Marketing person
 Distribution person
 Seed Production
 Farmers
 Retailers
 Dealers
Pest Forecasting Model
PEST FORECAST MODEL
 The model combines three parameters of the disease triangle:
 Crop (host)
 Pathogen (present at field)
 Environment (monitored by Automated Weather Station)
• Hourly
observations
• Specific
geographies
Environment
Crop stage
• GIS or UAV
mapping
• Crop diagnostic
• Pest and disease
infestation alert
• Real time basis
Pest/Disease
BROWN PLANT HOPPER – PADDY
Crop stage information
Paddy
Monitor using AWS
Brown Plant Hopper (BPH)
BPH Life Cycle
Eggs Hatchability highest at 25°C
BPH Population Max 28-30°C
RH >70
High Nitrogen levels
BENEFITS

Predicts likely occurrence or attack of different pest & diseases

Accurate advisories on prophylactic measure to prevent disease/pest incidence

Improve marketing activities and inventory planning at the dealer/retail point

Mobile advisories to suggest company’s products to farmers

Increase revenue for the company

Strengthen company’s brand image
Crop Risk Management
CUSTOMISED CROP RISK MANAGEMENT
EXISTING
Drawbacks:
PROPOSED
Benefits:
•
Inadequate product
•
Customized product
•
Cryptic payout calculations
•
Transparent payout calculations
•
Opaque payouts
•
Equitable payouts
•
Mistrust on insurance
•
Trust build-up on insurance
PRODUCT CUSTOMIZATION (PEPSICO) – POTATO (PATIALA)
Earlier Product
Modified Product
TRANSPARENCY – INFORMATION & PAYOUTS
Agri input Supply Chain / Distribution
ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013)
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1st week of July
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July
Crop
Sowing
Status end
of Season
DISTRICT WISE ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013)
District wise Time wise Paddy acreage
FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN - I
FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN - II
Pady Area in
Zira Block is 12,692 Ha.
Spatial Distribution of
Paddy Crop in Zira Block - Firozpur
Landsat Satellite Image
Resolution: 30M
THANK YOU
Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd
Plot no 10/11, Sector-125, Noida
www.skymetweather.com
[email protected]