Transcript the presentation by Dr. R K Pachauri

UN Public Lecture
Climate Change and Sustainable Energy For All
Chairman, Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
R. K. Pachauri
28 June 2014, New Delhi, India
“Sustainable development is
development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.”
Sustainable Energy For All - Background
Energy enables.
Energy lies at the heart of all countries’ core
interests, including:
• job creation
• economic development
• security concerns
• full empowerment of women
In September 2011, UN Secretary General
launched the SE4ALL initiative.
All spheres of society (business, government,
civil society, community groups, academia etc.)
to make sustainable energy for all a reality by
2030 by working in partnership.
Source : ttp://www.se4all.org/
3
Sustainable Energy for All – the challenges
“Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and
an environment that allows the world to thrive” ~ UNSG Ban Ki Moon
Energy access
• Nearly 1 in 5 on the planet lacks
access to electricity
• Almost 3 billion people rely on
wood, coal, charcoal or animal
waste for cooking and heating
• This is a major barrier to
eradicating poverty and building
shared prosperity
Source : ttp://www.se4all.org/
Climate change
• Where modern energy services
are plentiful, the problem is:
waste and pollution
• Anthropogenic emissions are
contributing to climate change
• This has impacts on lives,
communities, infrastructure,
institutions and budgets
• Climate change impacts the
poor first and worst
4
Sustainable Energy for All
Achieving the three objectives together will maximize development benefits and help
stabilize climate change over the long run. The objectives are complementary.
The key to both challenges is to
provide sustainable energy for all.
SE4ALL is focused on attaining 3
objectives:
• Ensure universal access to modern
energy services
• Double the share of renewable
energy in the global energy mix
• Double the global rate of
improvement in energy efficiency
Source : ttp://www.se4all.org/
5
Sustainable Energy For All
To make the vision of Sustainable Energy for All actionable, the three core objectives
have been disaggregated into 11 Action Areas
The 11 Action Areas address almost 95% of global energy consumption, key components of
productive energy use, and the supporting mechanisms needed.
Source : SE4ALL, A Global Action Agenda
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Sustainable Energy for All
Opportunities
Sustainable energy creates new
opportunities:
• Enables businesses to grow
• Generates jobs
• Creates new markets
• Children can study after dark
• Clinics can store life-saving vaccines
• Countries can grow more resilient,
competitive economies.
7
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD
Greenhouse gases
Limiting climate change will require sustained and substantial reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions
• Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued
to increase over 1970 to 2010 (highest in human
history from 2000 to 2010)
• CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and
industrial processes contributed about 78 % of the
total GHG emission increase from 1970 to 2010
• About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2
emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred
in the last 40 years
• In baseline scenarios, direct CO2 emissions from
the energy supply sector are projected to double or
triple by 2050 compared to 2010, unless energy
intensity improvements can be significantly
accelerated.
Source : IPCC AR5
9
Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Human influence of the climate system is clear
• 95% certainty that human influence has been the dominant cause
of the observed warming since the mid-20th century
• Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to millennia.
• Human influence has been detected in warming of the
atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level
rise, and in changes in some climate extremes
Source : IPCC AR5
10
Observed changes in the climate system
Climate change is unequivocal
• The oceans have warmed and risen
• The amounts of snow and ice have
diminished
• Sea level has risen
• The concentrations of greenhouse
gases have increased
Source : IPCC AR5
11
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased
• The atmospheric concentrations
of CO2, methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the past
800,000 years.
• The ocean has absorbed ~30% of
the emitted anthropogenic
carbon dioxide, causing ocean
acidification.
Source : IPCC AR5
12
Trends in GHGs and their drivers
Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from
2000 to 2010
Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors
• Globally, economic and
population growth continue
to be the most important
drivers of increases in CO2
emissions from fossil fuel
combustions
• These are expected to
continue to drive emissions
growth without additional
efforts to reduce GHG
emissions.
Source : IPCC AR5
13
Extreme events during and by the end of the 21st Century
• It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or
intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over
most land areas
• Under some scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely
to become a 1-in-2 year event in most regions
• It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the
proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase
over many areas of the globe
Source : IPCC SREX
Future risks of climate change in Asia
• Water scarcity is expected to be a major
challenge due to increased water demand
and lack of good management
• Higher temperatures can lead to lower rice
yields. A number of regions are already
near the heat stress limits for rice.
• Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas
and especially affect rice growing regions.
• Coastal and marine systems are under
increasing stress from climatic and nonclimatic drivers
• Damage to coral reefs will increase during
the 21st century as a result of ocean
warming and acidification.
Source : IPCC AR5
15
Future risks of climate change in Asia
• Adverse effects on the
sustainable development
capabilities of most Asian
developing countries by
aggravating pressures on
natural resources and the
environment.
• Increasing impact of extreme
events on human health,
security, livelihoods, and
poverty, with the type and
magnitude of impact varying
across Asia.
Source : IPCC AR5
16
Abrupt and irreversible impacts
Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2
are stopped.
• Sustained mass loss by ice sheets
(some of which irreversible) would
cause larger sea level rise.
• Sustained warming greater than some
threshold (greater than about 1°C but
less than about 4°C global mean
warming with respect to preindustrial) would lead to the nearcomplete loss of the Greenland ice
sheet over a millennium or more,
causing a global mean sea level rise of
up to 7 m.
Source : IPCC AR5
17
Implications for sustainable development
Limits to resilience are faced when thresholds or tipping points associated with social
and/or natural systems are exceeded, posing severe challenges for adaptation.
 The interactions among
climate change mitigation,
adaptation, and disaster risk
management may have a
major influence on resilient
and sustainable pathways.
 Interactions between the goals
of mitigation and adaptation
will play out locally, but have
global consequences.
Source : IPCC SREX
18
Adaptation and Mitigation
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
“Climate-resilient pathways
combine adaptation and
mitigation to reduce climate
change and its impacts. Since
mitigation reduces the rate
and magnitude of warming,
it also increases the time
available for adaptation to a
particular level of climate
change, potentially by
several decades.”
Source : IPCC AR5
19
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD
There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and
also help improve people’s livelihoods and well-being
The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near
term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term
Source : IPCC SREX
21
Effective risk management and adaptation are tailored to local and
regional needs and circumstances
• Changes in climate extremes vary across regions
• Each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards
• Effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and
vulnerability
Source : IPCC SREX
22
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE MITIGATION
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD
Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
Delaying additional mitigation further increases mitigation costs in the
medium to long term
GDP
GDP without
mitigation
GDP with stringent
mitigation (reaching ≈
450 ppm CO2eq in
2100)
Current
Source : IPCC AR5
Loss in global
consumption
in 2030: 1.7%
(median)
2030
Loss in
global
consumption
in 2050:
3.4%
(median)
2050
Loss in global
consumption
in 2100: 4.8%
(median)
2100
Time
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Stringent mitigation scenarios
Characteristics of scenarios reaching levels of about 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (likely
chance to keep temperature change below 2C relative to preindustrial levels):
• Lower global GHGs in 2050 than in 2010 (40% to 70% lower
globally)
• Emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100
• More rapid improvements in energy efficiency
• A tripling to nearly a quadrupling of the share of zero- and lowcarbon energy supply from renewables by 2050
• Nuclear energy, biomass and fossil energy with CCS, and BECCS
by the year 2050
Source : IPCC AR5
25
CDR technologies
Many scenarios
reaching 450, 500 and
550 ppm CO2eq by 2100
Require availability and
widespread
deployment of BECCS
and afforestation post
2050
But the availability and scale of these and other CDR technologies are uncertain and
associated with challenges and risks.
Source : IPCC AR5
26
Mitigation opportunities in the energy supply sector
• Decarbonization of electricity generation
• Renewable energy technologies
• Nuclear energy could make an increasing
contribution to low-carbon energy
supply, but a variety of barriers and risks
exist
• Replacement of world average coal-fired
power plants with modern natural gas
combined-cycle power plants
• CCS and BECCS, but entail challenges
and risks
Source : IPCC AR5
27
Mitigation opportunities in the energy end-use sectors
Industry
Transport
Buildings
• Wide-scale upgrading and
innovation
• Replacement and
deployment of best
available technologies
• Information programmes
to promote energy
efficiency
• Efficiency in material use,
recycling and waste
reduction
• Collaborative approaches
across companies and
sectors
• Technical and behavioral
mitigation measures
(energy efficiency and
vehicle performance
improvements)
• Adoption of very low
building codes for new
buildings
Source : IPCC AR5
• Infrastructure and urban
redevelopment
investments (more
compact urban form that
supports cycling and
walking, high-speed rail
systems)
• Retrofits for existing
buildings
• Lifestyle, culture and
behavior influence energy
consumption in buildings
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RE costs are still higher than existing energy prices but in various
settings RE is already competitive.
Source : IPCC SRREN
29
Co-benefits and adverse side effects
There is an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase
co-benefits and reduce adverse side-effects.
The intersections of mitigation and adaptation with other
societal goals, if well managed, can strengthen the basis
for undertaking climate action:
• Improved energy efficiency and security
• Cleaner energy sources
• Air quality and human health
• Reduced energy and water consumption in urban areas
• Sustainable agriculture and forestry
• Protection of ecosystems for carbon storage
Source : IPCC AR5
30
Climate change and sustainable development
Governing a transition toward an effective climate response and SD pathway is a
challenge involving rethinking our relation to nature.
• A stable climate is one component
of SD.
• Limiting the effects of climate
change is necessary to achieve SD
and equity, including poverty
eradication.
• Designing an effective climate policy
involves “mainstreaming” climate in
the design of SD strategies.
• Options for equitable burdensharing can reduce the potential for
the costs of climate action to
constrain development.
Source : IPCC AR5
31
LaBL
Source : IPCC
LIGHTING
A BILLION LIVES
We commit to enable a billion lives to access light from solar technologies
1.3 billion people lack access to electricity
360 million live in India
2.2 billion litres of kerosene burnt each
year for lighting
About 5.5 tonnes CO2 emitted to the
atmosphere by burning kerosene for this
Source : TERI
Lighting a Billion Lives
Gobindarampur: a village benefiting from the campaign
Bani and her friends run and
maintain the charging station
Solar lanterns have helped families
in their daily activities
Source : TERI
Solar lanterns are used in livelihood
activities such as betel leaf cultivation,
coaching centres, and shops
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“A technological society has two choices.
First it can wait until catastrophic failures
expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and
self-deceptions…
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks
and balances to correct for systemic
distortion prior to catastrophic failures.”
- Mahatma Gandhi
“Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the
wrong direction”
- Mahatma Gandhi