Transcript Reducing poverty continues to be a rural issue

LAND in the Climate Change era
1. What is on the
horizon?
2. Why worry?
3. What does CC
mean for land?
4. Land Dilemmas
5. Are there
opportunities?
6. What to do?
7. What is next?
What is on the horizon–context
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Rapid urbanization, food insecurity, water stress,
climate change, oil and rising prices of other
commodities, etc.
Globalized economies
Greater vulnerability of the poor
Low productivity
Competing markets
Technological and communications revolution
More demanding political and governance
systems – in need of greater support
Land tenure fragility +
Why worry?
Higher risks for the Poor
Six Climate Threats
Top 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each
Low Income
High Income
Middle Income
Drought
Flood
Storm
Coastal 1m
Coastal 5m
Agriculture
Malawi
Bangladesh
Philippines
All low-lying
Island States
All low-lying
Island States
Sudan
Ethiopia
China
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Netherlands
Senegal
Zimbabwe
India
Madagascar
Egypt
Japan
Zimbabwe
India
Cambodia
Vietnam
Tunisia
Bangladesh
Mali
Mozambique
Mozambiqu
e
Moldova
Indonesia
Philippines
Zambia
Niger
Laos
Mongolia
Mauritania
Egypt
Morocco
Mauritania
Pakistan
Haiti
China
Brazil
Niger
Eritrea
Sri Lanka
Samoa
Mexico
Venezuela
India
Sudan
Thailand
Tonga
Myanmar
Senegal
Malawi
Chad
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
Fiji
Algeria
Kenya
Benin
Honduras
Senegal
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Iran
Rwanda
Fiji
Libya
Denmark
Pakistan
Source: World Bank staff.
For some, it will get worse
Likely Impact of Sea Level Rise on Low Lying Lands:
BANGLADESH
Today
Total population: 112 million
Total land area: 134,000 km2
If sea level rises 1.5 m:
Total population affected: 17 million (15%)
Total land area affected: 22,000 km2 (16%)
Source: UNEP/GRID Geneva; University of Decca; JRO Munich; The World Bank; World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.
LAND in the Climate Change era
Have we done our homework in securing tenure,
access to and the best use of land?
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Pending issues of equity and distribution:
limited access seems to be perpetuated in some
regions of the world (are markets functioning up
to their potential?)
Pending issues of insecure rights, land grabbing
and conflict over resources: weak enforcement
and governance structures
Pending issues of low productivity and
inefficiencies: agriculture productivity and
natural resource allocation
Pending issues of the natural resource base:
land degradation (loss of soil fertility, erosion,
etc.), deforestation, water-land missing
linkages.
In addition……..
Mega-trends
 Mega-dilemmas
 Mega-challenges
 Mega-uncertainties
 Mega-impacts
…and we need MEGA-RESPONSES
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What does it mean for Land?
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Mega-dilemmas,
Megachallenges,uncertainties,impacts
Mega-opportunities for:
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Land
Land
Land
Land
Tenure
as Natural Resource
as Productive Asset
Institutions
What does this mean for LAND
TENURE
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Increased vulnerability and greater
exposure to climate risks
Impacts on traditional tenure
arrangements
Higher loss of assets (natural, physical,
financial)
Higher pressure and insecurity
“Global land grab”?
What does this mean for LAND
as a Natural Resource
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Decreased sustainable use and resource
management
Declined adaptive capacity - due to external
factors
Physical impacts
Scarcity
Deforestation?
Disrupted systems
What does this mean for LAND
INSTITUTIONS
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Obsolete systems in need to adapt to new
challenges (e.g. the divorce between land rights and
forestry rights - who will pay the bill?)
Past gains on land rights limited by nonenforceability and now at higher risk
Recognition yes, but followed by on-the-ground
enforcement
The end of the “silo” syndrome: work cross sectoraly
Confronted with some of the mega dilemmasGreater need to develop new capacities
Greater inclusion- top down approaches are not an
option
Partner for development: collective action- the role
of civil society.
What does this mean for LAND
as a NR and productive asset
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Demand side
Supply side
Demand side:
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Productive Demand: new demand for
land in developing countries to
cultivate raw materials and
agrofuel/biofuel
Demand for Conservation:
reserves/ENV services/carbon markets
Demand for new settlements
(public lands): livestock,
displacement, population growth,
growing demand for food, etc.
Demand for urbanization: (public or
private)
Supply side:
Competing needs for energy and food
security
Increased competition for cropland,
pastureland and marginal lands exacerbates the old pressure over land….
Land degradation (soil erosion, etc)
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Limited conversion and diversification
Limited access to water, research and technology
High prices
Lack of information
LAND Dilemmas in…..
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2.
Mitigation
Adaptation
Land in the CC era: Mitigation
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Alternative sources of energy and
fuel;
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Food for cars or food for people?
(more land?)
Expansion and displacement unintended result? (cattle ranching,
others?)
Perverse incentives: adoption of
biofuels may increase deforestation
and demand for new land?
Fragile tenure plus new land
disputes
Public lands –their role?
Land in the CC era: Mitigation
Greater conservation and better
resource allocation
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ENV services, re-forestation and afforestation
-smallholders
Deforestation avoidance: price increase for
agricultural lands (deforestation accounts for
20% of emissions)
More occupation of private and public
holdings (old and new frontiers)
Vulnerable tenure arrangements and
potential for increased land conflicts.
Land in the CC era: Mitigation
Indigenous Peoples Livelihoods
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Threats to IPs go beyond physical effects (cultural, moral, etc.)
Could other mitigation strategies hurt indigenous populations?
How to enhance IPs access to resources to cope with changes?
Carbon Markets
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Making it available for the small producer
Clear land rights and access to information
Support diversification and livelihood strengthening
Disaster and Risk Management
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Risk reduction is key to mitigate and adapt
Increased disaster trend
Impacts on tenure and on assets
Land and Adaptation
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Country-specific
It is a short and long term issue for now and the future
Development is the best adaptation
and resilience strengthener
It is required from all (large and
small) in all three worlds
(urbanized, ag-based and
transitional)
Land in the CC era: Adaptation
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Rising food prices (e.g. 181% increase in
wheat prices-36 months and 83% overall
global)
Rising land prices!
Floods and droughts
Higher production costs (fertilizer and other
inputs)
Slow and inefficient technology adoption
How to bear osts of adaptation…..(ODA 4%)
So many threats, so where are the
opportunities?
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Mitigation-adaptation synergies (low income
countries on land, forestry, NRM)
Good adaptation is cost-effective
Access to new financing
Reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation (REDD)
Adapting: a better way to cope with many of the
farming risks
The more we mitigate, the less to adapt
Second-generation bio-fuels can avoid land use change
and offer greater ENV and social benefits
Secure and enforceable land rights
Increased productivity
Stronger land institutions
What to do about it?
Comprehensive approach
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Responsibly and realistically address the
trilogy of energy security, climate
change and food security. They all have
to do with land tenure, land rights and
land management.
Land, water and forestry programs.
Land tenure programs - beyond titling
and beyond mappingResearch on CC socioeconomic impacts
on land and the natural resource base
Set indicators and monitor such impacts
What to do?
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Incentives for good land
management (such as payments
for biodiversity conservation and
carbon sequestration, community
ownership and land tenure
security) are necessary, but not
sufficient. Should be made
accessible to the poor.
Have a new look at communitybased forestry.
In less endowed areas….
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Invest in R&D for drought tolerance,
natural resource management, herding
(conditions pertinent for the left behind
areas)
Agro-forestry
Conservation farming
Small scale irrigation and water
harvesting and management
Appropriate infrastructure
Adapted financial services
Risk management instruments
and….bottom line:
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Agriculture environmental footprint needs
to be substantially reduced
Farming systems to become more CC
resilient
Clearer and enforceable land use and
property rights (common and individual)
Cleaner and more accessible technologies
Greater balance between conservation and
production
Forget BAU ~ it is a different era~
But we also need the right policy
mix…and the right balance…
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Mitigation and Adaptation are crucial
and they complement each other’s area of
action +mitigation less adaptation needed
Global collective action, global
negotiations, and local awareness,
local impacts and local actions are
needed.
Trade-offs between short-term and longterm decisions/priorities.
What is Next?
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Action
Make small holders and IPs more resilient and
less vulnerable to CC risks and impacts
Adapting land institutions to the size of the
challenge- working across sectors
Enhance productivity potential- address food
issues beyond short-term crisis
Incentives for investments
Land is key for achieving MDG1: making the
linkages and acting on them
Global support/local policies/local investments
Increase ODA for Agriculture and Forestry