Transcript Climate Change

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ISLAND COMMUNITIES
David J. Keeling
Department of Geography and Geology
Western Kentucky University
Bowling Green, Kentucky
American Geographical Society
All Material used from copyrighted sources is fair-use for academic purposes only.
As we visit the Pacific and Indian Oceans….
Let’s demystify Global Climate Change
THE DEBATE…..

Political perspectives:

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
or
UNSUBSTANTIATED
SCIENCE?
INTERACTING INFLUENCES
PLANETARY
CYCLES
LONG-TERM
CLIMATE
OSCILLATIONS
CLIMATE
CHANGE
HUMAN
ACTIVITIES
ECOLOGY AND
ENVIRONMENT
EXTRAPLANETARY
EFFECTS
KEY QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NET HUMAN CONTRIBUTION
TO OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE?
THE DEBATE …..

Economic perspectives:

CHANGING RESOURCE BASE
----
Water, agriculture, minerals, etc.
THE DEBATE …..


Societal perspectives:
HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT
ME ?
MY COMMUNITY ?
MY SOCIETY ?
Cedar Pines near Lake Baikal
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES



The Intelligence Community ……
Long-term analysis of “friction zones”
that likely will develop because of
global climate change.
Are we asking the right questions
about the right places ???
The Scientists’
Rumsfeldian Dilemma!

We know what we don’t know
The Scientists’
Rumsfeldian Dilemma!


We know what we don’t know
We don’t know what we should
know
The Scientists’
Rumsfeldian Dilemma!



We know what we don’t know
We don’t know what we should know
We haven’t known what we
could have known
The Scientists’
Rumsfeldian Dilemma!




We know what we don’t know
We don’t know what we should know
We haven’t known what we could have
known
We know that we don’t know what
we need to know
The Scientists’
Rumsfeldian Dilemma!





We know what we don’t know
We don’t know what we should know
We haven’t known what we could have known
We know that we don’t know what we ought to
know
Knowing what we do know hasn’t
helped us to know enough about
what we don’t know
CLIMATE CHANGE
NOT GLOBAL WARMING!

Earth systems are complex –
some regions will grow warmer
while others will grow colder
SCALE, SCALE, SCALE!!

Local (micro)
SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !

Regional (meso)
SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !

GLOBAL (macro)
REALLY BIG …

Planetary
and
Solar System
Planetary Influences….
Basic Forces:
Earth’s Rotation
- Pressure Gradient
- Coriolis Force

Coriolis Force
Pressure
Gradient
Hadley Cells and Global Circulation Patterns
Planetary Behavior….
Basic Forces:
Orbital Eccentricity
years
= 100,000
Planetary Behavior….
Basic Forces:
Tilt of the Axis (23.5 today) = 41,000
years
Planetary Behavior….
Basic Forces:
Precession of Spin Axis
years
= 26,000
Milankovitch’s Orbital Variations
Orbital Eccentricity
Tilt
Wobble
PLANETARY CIRCULATION
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
Global Climate Cycles
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
WHAT ARE THE POLICY ISSUES?

HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE
CHANGE
and
CLIMATE CHANGE’S IMPACTS ON
HUMANS
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY
RESPONSES
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?


POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY
RESPONSES
CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL
LANDSCAPE
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?



POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY
RESPONSES
CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL
SPECIES
WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES

CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE

IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES

HUMAN IMPACTS ON
CLIMATE CHANGE
Human Long-Term Implications?
What are the observable
fingerprints of global climate change:
►
●
Human Long-Term Implications?
►
What are the observable fingerprints of
global climate change:
● Heat waves and periods of unusually
warm weather, along with droughts
●
Human Long-Term Implications?
►
What are the observable fingerprints of
global climate change:
● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm
weather, along with droughts
● Ocean warming, sea-level rise,
and coastal flooding
●
Human Long-Term Implications?
►
What are the observable fingerprints of
global climate change:
● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm
weather, along with droughts
● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal
flooding
● Glaciers melting
● Arctic and
Antarctic warming
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE
CHANGE CHALLENGES

Food Security
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE
CHANGE CHALLENGES


Food Security
Loss of land for agriculture and
housing
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE
CHANGE CHALLENGES

Food Security

Loss of land for agriculture and housing

Human Health
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE
CHANGE CHALLENGES

Food Security

Loss of land for agriculture and housing

Human Health

Transportation Changes
SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE
CHANGE CHALLENGES


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Food Security
Loss of land for agriculture and housing
Human Health
Transportation Changes
Coastal and Indigenous
Populations
Implications for Island States
are Grave

Areas such as the Maldives, the
Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati
may face inundation from sea-level
rise
Implications for Island States
are Grave


Areas such as the Maldives, the
Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati
may face inundation from sea-level rise
Many more may face devastation
from more intense hurricanes and
greater rainfall even in moderate
hurricanes
Implications for Island States are Grave


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
Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall
Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face
inundation from sea-level rise
Many more may face devastation from more
intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in
moderate hurricanes
Grenada, Haiti, and Cayman
Islands damage in 2004
possible harbinger of future
INNOVATIVE ADAPTION
NEEDED
Climate Change and Small
Island States

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Small Island States produce only a tiny
fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions
Island States are among the most vulnerable
to Climate Change
Most island nations are dependent on highcost fossil fuels and very expensive
electricity
A significant number of people don’t have
access to electricity, especially in the Pacific
Island States are especially suited to utilize
modern renewable energy and energy
efficiency technologies due to their
economic and geographical conditions
Harbingers of Global Climate Change
What might we expect in coming decades?
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Spreading disease
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts and
population changes
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy
snowfalls,
and flooding
Droughts and fires
The systemic nature of climate change impacts
is an added challenge
Health Impacts
Weather-related Mortality
Infectious Diseases
Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture Impacts
Climate Changes
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea Level Rise
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Forest Impacts
Change in forest composition
Shift geographic range of forests
Forest Health and Productivity
Water Resource Impacts
Changes in water supply
Water quality
Increased competition for water
Impacts on Coastal Areas
Erosion of beaches
Inundate coastal lands
Costs to defend coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas
Cultural Resources
Shift in ecological zones
Loss of habitat and species
THANK YOU!!