Transcript The role of weather and climate service innovation in

The Role of Weather and Climate
Service Innovation in Adaptation to
Climate Change
Atte Harjanne, Adriaan Perrels, Väinö Nurmi & Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Presented by: Atte Harjanne
Background
Services and products that consist of information about past, present or future weather
or climate, their impacts or possible adaption or mitigation actions to manage these
impacts.
TOPDAD - Tool-supported policy
development for regional adaptation
Modeling costs and benefits of different
adaptation policies in transport, energy
and tourism sectors in Europe
How do advances in weather and
climate services affect adaptation to
climate change?
What are the likely advances in the
supply and use of these services
(especially in transport, energy and
tourism sectors)?
Methods
Literature review
23 semi-structured expert interviews
Statistical user analysis
Economic modeling excercises
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Adaptation to climate change
Weather and climate services are critical for adaptation actions, whether they are
proactive or reactive, endogenous or planned, or if the impacts are permanent or
transient.
Reducing exposure
Comprehensive physical
protection
Strategic /
Structural
Operational
/ Adaptive
Climate services: +
Weather services: ?
Reducing vulnerability
Enhanced physical protection
Climate services ++
Weather services:+
Improving resilience
Enhanced societal
preparedness
Climate services: ++
Weather services: ?
Spatial/temporal
substitution (avoidance)
Tailored anticipatory
technology
Enhanced societal
responsiveness
Climate services:+
Weather services:++
Climate services: +
Weather services: ++
Climate services: +
Weather services: ++
Or are they?
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Drivers and enablers of
innovation
Network and
data
integration
Reduction in
data related
unit-costs
Policies and
regulation
Third party
access to
observation
and model
data
Market
transformation
Improved capacity
and increased
options
to adapt
Drivers of innovation
Reduction in
data related
unit-costs
Network and
data integration
Third party
access to
observation and
model data
- Improved accuracy (historical trend: 1 day / decade)
- Improved resolution in time and space
- Broader observation coverage
-
Also from consumer mobile devices
- Broader offering of services
- New time scales:
-
Nowcasting
Seasonal forecasting
- More accurate, available, tailored information  improved options and capability to
adapt
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Policy dependency
• Weather and climate services largely
science based innovators (Pavitt, 1984).
 Reliance on public funding and
infrastructure
• Supercomputers, satellites, radars…
• Private actors half-hearted to invest
• Also regulation necessary for many of the
envisioned services
Policies and
regulation
• Mobile congestion
• Standardisation needs
• Privacy issues
Market transformation
• Fragmentation of value network
• New roles of national services
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
New technology – new behavior
(1)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
% of popoulation in the activity
Service users compared to
daily average
New technology – new behavior
(2)
Identified innovations – Transport
• High spatial resolution road weather models useful for both
drivers, route planners and road clearance planners
• Comprehensive interactive intelligent road weather projection
and information system informing and if need be instructing
both driver and vehicle
• Further development of ship routing services, with new
variables added such as water depth
• Further development regarding storm warnings and storm
routes for aviation, high (3D) spatial resolution projections and
nowcasts for airports’ airspace
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Identified innovations – Energy
• High spatial and temporal resolution projections (overland) for
electricity demand relevant parameters (temperature,
insolation, wind speed, humidity)
• High spatial and temporal resolution projections for wind
speed both on-shore and off-shore at relevant axle heights
• Improvements in projections of effective (on the ground) solar
radiation
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Identified innovations – Tourism
• Further development in localized multi-feature (and multi-day)
forecasts for specific tourist groups and tourism entrepreneurs,
and improvement of its access / dissemination – possibly in
conjunction with other information portals (e.g. local event lists
for the coming days)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Weather Service Chain Analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
ACCURACY - the extent to which weather forecast information is accurate
APPROPRIATE DATA - the extent to which weather forecast information contains appropriate
data for a potential user
ACCESS - the extent to which a decision maker has (timely) access to weather forecast
information
COMPREHENSION - the extent to which a decision maker adequately understands weather
forecast information
ABILITY TO RESPOND - the extent to which a decision maker can use weather forecast
information to effectively adapt behaviour
EFFECTIVINESS OF RESPONSE - the extent to which recommended responses actually help to
avoid damage due to unfavourable weather information
OVERALL BENEFIT - the extent to which benefits from adapted action or decision are transferred
to other economic agents
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Estimating the value – Cost-Loss
& WSCA
Katz & Murphy (1997)
Nurmi et al. (2013)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Including innovations
Perrels et al. (2013)
Innovations in road transport could be worth 20 ME per year (Finland)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Conclusions & further research
• The future looks promising but needs some help
• Further research:
• Economic quantification: ARIO, agent-based modeling (ETH Zürich)
• More insight on the behavioral response needed
• Can there be too much information?
• What is the optimal level of tailoring and automation?
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Further reading
Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013),
Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a
changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in
adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2.
Available online: www.topdad.eu
Harjanne, A., Ervasti, T. (2014) Analysis of user trends and behavior in online and mobile
weather and climate services, FMI report (upcoming)
Pilli-Sihvola K., Nurmi V., Perrels A., Harjanne A., Bösch P., Ciari F.(2014) Innovations in
weather services as a crucial building block for climate change adaptation in road
transport (submitted, EJTIR Special Issue)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
References
Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (1997), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts, Cambridge University
Press, U.K.
Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on
the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol 20, Iss. 2, pp. 217 – 223.
Pavitt, K. (1984), Sectoral Patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory, Research Policy, Vol.
13, pp. 343-373.
Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and
generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and
climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2.
Available online: www.topdad.eu
Pielke Jr , R. A. , Sarewitz , D. and Byerly Jr , R. 2000 . ‘Decision making and the future of nature: understanding
and using predictions’, in Sarewitz , D. , Pielke Jr , R. A. and Byerly Jr , R. (eds.) Prediction: Science, Decision
Making and the Future of Nature. Washington, DC : Island Press , pp. 361 –387
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Atte Harjanne
[email protected]
Adriaan Perrels
[email protected]
Poster: UAS-POT3018