Transcript Sus.Dev.Mutter.part1 - Earth and Environmental Sciences

Is Sustainable Development Feasible?
including (maybe)
Hurricane Katrina: a development failure?
Dr John C Mutter
The world is "on an unsustainable
trajectory. Politics is central but we
have almost no politics on this issue.
We're fighting all the wrong wars. We
haven't even started to fight the wars on
poverty, disease, and environmental
degradation”
J.D. Sachs 2006
the “gap between science and society is
profound and extraordinarily dangerous ...
These [issues of sustainability] are scientific
problems first and foremost. We will require
massive improvements in science and
technology and their applications, if nine
billion people are to live better lives.
Without improvements, we'll have war and
violence and benighted global disarray."
By development we mean
….the challenge of spreading social,
political and economic opportunity to
the entire global community,
particularly the poorest of the poor.
By sustainable we mean ….
……managing the world’s
development in a manner consistent
with the continued healthy
functioning of the Earth’s
ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and
climate.
The divide today
rich
poor
GNP PPP/person
population (billion)
% increase/year
% with HIV/AIDS
$26,320
1.2
0.1
0.5
$4,450
5.3
1.5
1.4
infant mortality rate
6/1000
59/1000
children/woman
1.6
3.0
life expectancy
76
65
% urban
76
41
people/km2
24
64
Global GDP per capita for the last 3000 yrs
Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted
GDP Wealth
Territory displayed in proportion to GDP
China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrs
India’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Wealth increases
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrs
India’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Wealth decreases
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Living on less $10 a day
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Living on less $1 a day
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Kararo Ethiopia
Disasters
and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Collecting water near
Kararo Ethiopia
Disasters
and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Can our science help people like this ……
Kararo Village
Ethiopia
Can our science help people like this ……
The UNDP Human Development Index (HDI)
A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of
human development:
LONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth;
KNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary,
secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;
STANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in
US$).
HDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.
Young female illiteracy
Growth in tertiary
education
Scientific research
output (publications)
Life expectancy at birth
Infant Mortality
Infant mortality
Maternal mortality
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
HDI World distribution
Development decreases
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
GDP vs HDI
Territory displayed in proportion to wealth
GDP
HDI
GDP per
capita as a
function of
latitude.
Poverty has a
latitudinal
dependence
(J. Sachs)
HDI versus latitude
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
50
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
-10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-30
-50
-70
HDI (1980-2000)
0.8
1.0
HDI versus latitude
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
50
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
-10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-30
-50
-70
HDI (1980-2000)
0.8
1.0
What causes this
development gap?
No chance correlation
Environment matters
to human well being
Malthus was not
entirely right
Malaria mortality
Regions burdened by malaria cannot achieve development
Bad governance is only
part of the problem
Some corrupt countries do develop
Most conflict regions today are poor
CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA
Economic Growth
1990-2003
China
Africa
Decreasing Corruption
Increasing Corruption
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Pakistan
Kenya
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Cambodia
Vietnam
Mali
Tanzania
Malawi
2.0
Senegal
Rwanda
4.0
Ghana
India
8.0
Uganda
Asia
Post-cold war conflicts
wrt GDP as of 2004
Most conflict regions today are poor
Conflict-related mortality
Regions in conflict cannot achieve development of any kind
Drought mortality
Africa remains almost the only place where drought kills
Drought in the Sahal
More than a decade of persistent drought in area like HoA
Climateand
variability
Conflict
Droughtand
Malaria risk in Botswana
Environmental stress > Scarcity > Conflict
Simple growth models
From Kiminori Matsuyama
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Simple growth models
Growth
Richer
countries
Poor
countries
Poverty
traps
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Poverty Trap
 A self perpetuating condition in the economy of a country
in which poverty becomes the driver of further poverty
 Considered to be a low level equilibrium condition - a trap
 Many environmental factors can lead to the creation of
poverty traps
 Poor countries are NOT embryonic rich countries waiting
their turn; they have fundamentally different
characteristics and must be treated differently
Poverty trap causes
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Family child labor
Illiteracy
Debt bondage
Under-nutrition/illness
Low skill
High fertility
Subsistence
Farm erosion (soil depletion)
Common property mismanagement
Crime
Working capital
Mental health
Conflict
Gender inequality
Basic questions
Can growth be sustained ?
Can growth be achieved?
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Can development be sustained?
Can development be
achieved?
Can development be sustained?
By prefacing with sustainable, we refer to
the objective of managing the world’s
development in a manner consistent with
the continued healthy functioning of the
Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere
and climate.
To do nothing more than close the
development gap between the top and the
bottom (no growth at the top and no
population increase) would mean a
4-fold
increase in world economic output.
Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more
likely) and allow the top to continue to grow
and prosper at current rates, then closing
the development gap requires a
6 -Fold
increase in world economic output.
BUT ……
Economic optimists note that since the industrial
revolution the world economic output has increased
40 Fold (some say 50)
and population has increased only 4 Fold.
So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were
before the industrial revolution.
No problem!
But ……. the industrial era growth in prosperity has been
very uneven (the great divergence) and was achieved at
a time when resources needed for growth were
essentially limitless.
Ample evidence now suggests that limits are being
approached and the ideal world development may be
unattainable.
Sustainability issues
Hitting environmental boundary conditions that can turn
off growth, perhaps very suddenly.
System is deeply interconnected and non-linear and likely
has cascading multipliers -- tipping points
Limits may not signal their arrival -- collapse can be rapid
with no precursor
Climate Change, Water, Food and Agriculture,
Biodiversity
Energy, Urbanization, Population,
Ecological debtors
and creditors
>50% in
debt
> 50% in credit
Ecological footprint by
region
Neutral
Water stress indicator
Carbon dioxide
emissions
Carbon
dioxide
per capita 2002
per capita 2002
Carbon dioxide per
capita by country
Many measures of this sort abound in the
literature all of which imply that the developing
world cannot catch up to the top billion along
the pathway that got us here without very
alarming consequences for the future of the
planet.
Basic questions
Can growth be sustained ?
Can growth be achieved?
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Can development be sustained?
Can development be
achieved?
Can development be sustained?
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
1. Disease Ecology Depends on Economics
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
2. Economics Depends on Disease Ecology
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Economic
Growth
Poverty
Trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Economic
Growth
Poverty
Trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap
The human health poverty trap
Poor people are at greater risk of ill health
and …
… poor health increases the likelihood of
becoming poor.
Establishes a self-perpetuating state that
differs from health issue for the rich