Transcript What is Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)?

Pandemic Influenza:
A Primer for
Organizational Preparation
Kristine Perkins, MPH
Director, Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness
Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Overview
Public Health plays a major role in
Emergency Preparedness
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Protect the health of communities from natural
and manmade disasters
Serves as the nations first line of defense against
numerous threats such as:
 Infectious disease
 Food borne and water borne illness
 Biological, chemical, radiological attack
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What is Avian Influenza ?
Bird Flu
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A viral infection caused by avian (bird) influenza
normally a subtype of a type A influenza virus
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Occurring naturally among birds (low pathogenic
and high pathogenic)
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Often carried by wild birds in their intestines
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Can cause domestic birds, including chickens to
become very ill and die
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Occasionally some strains can infect
What is Pandemic Influenza?
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Pandemic Influenza is a widespread
outbreak of a new influenza virus that
humans have no immunity to thus causing a
global outbreak of serious illness that
spreads easily from person to person.
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Currently, there is no pandemic flu.
What if …
An Influenza Pandemic Struck Maine
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State population: 1,274,923
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Number of ill persons: 382,477 (30% attack rate)
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Number of persons seeking outpatient care
167,405 (50% of those ill minus persons who are
hospitalized or die)
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Number of persons hospitalized: 38,582 (range:
14,549- 48,699)
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Number of deaths: 9,086 (range: 5,421 -- 14,837)
Community Impact
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Hospitals working to capacity/ turning away some ill
Alternate care sites limited—homecare is the norm
Assistance from the federal government limited
Antiviral and vaccine supplies depleted
Mortuaries unable to manage increased mortality
Food supplies limited/ trucks, trains not moving
Increased security at groceries, pharmacies
Schools, many gov’t offices closed
Others dying from lack of support
Lessons from SARS
Toronto--2003
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438 probable or suspect cases
43 deaths
23% decline in tourism
20-30% decline in retail sales
$30 million per day cost to Canada’s economy
Decrease in growth from 2.5% to 1%
Travel advisory
Organizational/governmental disaster
What About My Town? County?
In a population of 30,000—
9,000 will become ill
 900 will require hospitalization
 213 will die
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How will I be Affected?
In a “Social or Business Circle” of 100
30 will acquire the disease
 3 will require hospitalization
 Nearly 1 will die
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What’s my Responsibility?
Personally
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Stay up with the worldwide epidemic
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Participate in prevention strategies
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Practice and teach “personal protective behaviors”
 Sneeze and cough properly
 Stay home when ill
 Monitor friends who are ill
 Learn about homecare for influenza
 Stockpile supplies, food and water
 Fill fuel tanks
What’s My Responsibility?
Professionally
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Participate in planning
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Develop a catalog of “critical operations”
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Plan to provide those services with ~40% fewer staff
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Practice and support Personal Protective Behaviors
at work
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Consider volunteer support
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Consider engineering controls
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Reduce direct close client contact
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Ask for technical assistance
Sample COOP Outline and Process
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Define “Critical Functions”
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Define critical staff and backup (deep)
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Cross train non-critical staff in critical functions
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Ensure infrastructure support
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Develop/test operations management plan
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Develop operations/ public communications plan
Are We Sure ???
No, but…
 The conditions are right
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Highly pathogenic bug--H5N1 (in birds)
 High mortality rate in humans (~ 50%)
 Extensive coverage worldwide (in birds)
 Limited human to human transmission
 Influenza mutates constantly
 Global shipment and migration of birds
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