Transcript Understanding Pandemic Influenza

Pandemic Influenza: What do we know, what
should we do?
Elizabeth L. McClure, MD, MPH
AHC Office of Emergency Response
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
CIDRAP
University of Minnesota
Seasonal Influenza
Pandemic Influenza
What creates a pandemic?
 Novel virus: No population immunity
 Cause serious disease
_ Transmitted person to person
Influenza Pandemics in the 20th Century
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1918: Spanish Flu
1957: Asian Flu
1969: Hong Kong Flu
Seasonal influenza
strains are pandemic
strains of years past
Avian Influenza and Human Influenza
• All human influenza viruses arise from
avian viruses
• Sometimes humans become victims of an
avian virus strain through close contact with
birds
• Avian influenza viruses may evolve into
new strains capable of infecting humans
Avian Influenza
• Disease of domestic
poultry with a origin in
migratory birds
• H5N1classification
• Can infect mammals
including humans
• Mortality rate of >60%
in humans
• Don’t count on
seasonal respite
Control Strategies: Birds
Vaccination
Surveillance
Stamping out
Quarantine
Problems….
• Asia is too big
• Lots of pressure for mutation: over thirteen
billion chickens in China alone
• Most chickens live in backyard flocks
• Lack of compensation for sick/dead
animals
• People must choose hunger vs. disease
control
• Recent successes or too soon to tell?
H5N1 in Humans: The Beginning
* origin of H5N1 Hong Kong 1997
Avian flu and people
Planning Assumptions
• Risk of an influenza pandemic in the future:
100%
• H5N1?: Unknown
• Susceptibility will be universal
• Planning will be based on severity of illness
• Viral Illness:
– Incubation 1-4 days
– Persons may be infectious before signs of illness
• Pandemic will occur in waves
– 6-8 weeks
– Multiple waves may occur over 18months-2 years
Don’t worry……
we’ve got a plan!
The YOYO strategy
Infection Control: Basic Tools
Vaccine
Antivirals
Social Distancing Maneuvers
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Close schools
Keep children at home
Social distancing in workplace
Liberal leave policies
Home isolation and quarantine
Personal Preparedness
Concerns
• Communities must be ready to implement
measures rapidly sustain reasonable
compliance
• There is lack of traction for personal and
community based preparedness efforts
Is there anything good about the
bird flu scare??
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Modernize vaccine production techniques
Improve surveillance for animals and humans
Emphasizes the importance of public health
Modernizes outbreak or disaster communication
systems
• Encourages citizens to be prepared for all
hazards
Discussion
• Important websites
– CDC: www.cdc.gov
– Federal Government:www.pandemicflu.gov
– Fed Volunteer: www.ready.gov
– World Health Organization: www.who.int
– CIDRAP: www.cidrap.umn.edu