Transcript Complex Emergencies Characteristics-Realities-Threats

COMPLEX EMERGENCIES
Characteristics / Realities / Threats
Col (Ret) Peter Leentjes
Center of Excellence in
Disaster Management and
Humanitarian Assistance
Center of Excellence
COMPLEX EMERGENCIES
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Describe current models
Establish the Environment
Discuss Features & Process
Threats
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Twelve Top Indicators
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Mounting Demographic Pressures
Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally
Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian
Emergencies
Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or
Group Paranoia
Chronic and sustained Human Flight
Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
Sharp or Severe Economic Decline
Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller
Center of Excellence
Twelve Top Indicators (Cont’d)
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Criminalization and/or Delegitimizing of the State
Progressive Deterioration of Public services
Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of
Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights
Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a
State”
Rise of fictionalized Élites
Intervention of Other States or External Political
Actors
Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller
Center of Excellence
The Complex
Emergency Model
Definition
“A complex emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country,
region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the
political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal
or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the
population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’
capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated
multi-sectoral international response”
IASC of the United Nations
Center of Excellence
Modern
Complex Emergencies
Disaster
Response
Humanitarian
Assistance
Peace
Operations
Center of Excellence
Modern
Complex Emergencies
Disaster
Response
Humanitarian
Assistance
Peace
Operations
Center of Excellence
Modern
Complex Emergencies
Disaster
Response
Humanitarian
Assistance
Peace
Operations
Center of Excellence
Modern
Complex Emergencies
Civil - Military Coordination
Disaster
Management
Humanitarian
Assistance
Peace
Operations
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What Is Driving This New
Model?
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Notion of State Security
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Shift from military security to human security
Individual rights are predominate
State is shrinking - smaller governments, larger
demands
Threats to national and trans-national security
National security is now linked to regional
security - trans-border threats
Globalization & privatization are reducing
nation’s reach and ability to control many
aspects impacting on the nation
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ECONOMIC SHIFT
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Changing expectations – individual
based
Emboldened populations
Increased economic disparity
Increased poverty – challenge to
stability
Economic diversion of resources
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SHIFT FROM INTERSTATE TO
INTRASTATE CONFLICT
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Incidence of violence within states increasing
Compromises the prosperity / stability /
survival of the state
Internal conflict provides the breeding ground
for Terrorism and Infectious Disease
Internal conflict cannot be contained within
borders
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SOVEREIGNTY
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No longer exclusive domain of the state
State legitimacy is eroding
Human rights
Globalization of resource movement
International accords
Pluralism – ethnicity
Movement of populations
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Features of Complex
Emergencies
Disrespect for Humanitarian Norms
 Civilian Casualties are not incidental but the
outcome of political strategies
 Civilians targets have become the objective
 90% of Casualties are civilian
 The full brutality of conflict is focused on the civilian
community
 Loss of immunity for humanitarian workers
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formerly could work without threat/fear
today they are often targets
aid is politicized
NGOs, ICRC/MSF have all suffered
 Impact on the ability of the humanitarian
agencies to deliver aid
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Use of Humanitarian Action to
Substitute for Political Action
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Humanitarian action is being used as a
stopgap which may make the situation
worse not better
Humanitarian work is undermined in the
absence of measures focused on
resolving the underlying causes of
suffering
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Chaotic Conditions in Intra-State
Conflict
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More intractable conflicts exist - difficult
to resolve
Brutality is on the increase
Landmines are found in dozens of
countries - 100 million estimate
Small Arms proliferation
Center of Excellence
Presence of Military and
Humanitarians in a Complex
Emergency
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Neutrality of the Humanitarians is
affected
Military focus on short term rather than
long term political solutions
The role and capacities of the military in
peace operations
Differing levels of security possible
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Dilemmas of Humanitarian
Assistance
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Focused on the basis of need - can create
animosities
Aid has become a political tool
Aid can make the security situation worse
Aid may be fueling the conflict
Aid as a source of revenue
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Theft
Extortion
Black market
Part of the problem
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RECENT TRENDS
 Increased Risks for Field Staff of all
Organizations in the Field
 aid is politicized
 has become a player in the conflicts
 UN Affiliation
 in the past a shield and protection
 today, regardless of legal process includes risk
 International Organizations/NGOs
 all at risk
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THREATS THAT CREATE
COMPLEX EMERGENCIES
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Ongoing Conflict
Population Displacement
Emerging or Re-emerging
Infectious Disease
Terrorism
Globalization
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ONGOING CONFLICT
 Cannot
be contained within borders
 Weapons proliferation in regions
 National interests of the neighbors
 Lack of or weak international response
 Resource extraction
 Financial Gains
 Criminal activities
 Aid as a tool to continue conflicts
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Population
Displacement
The
Number 2
Threat
Population Displacement
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Legal Concept of Displaced
– Refugees - narrow definition & international
support
– IDPs - not supported
– Economic Refugees
– Those fleeing natural disasters
– Migrants
– Evacuees
– Expelled
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Present Major Security Threat
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Refugees as a Threat
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Not a threat in themselves
High numbers present a direct economic and
cultural threat
Provision of services to refugee populations stress
host nations
If they do not receive aid they destroy the local
natural resources
Location of camps & control by host nation
Breeding ground for Terrorism within camps
Armed individuals - How do you deal with them
Aid provided by locals - yet they cannot receive aid
Threat to the local economy
Center of Excellence
Destroy the local labor market
Emerging and Re-emerging
Diseases
Center of Excellence
INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY
AGENDA
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Emergent diseases pose a significant challenge to
security and national interests - Impairs State
capacity to maintain security
Non traditional threat – how do you define it in the
spectrum of national interests (vital - war, important
– devote resources)
Challenges orthodox theories of international
relations
Normal evaluation of the threat based on relative
military capacities is no longer valid– pales in
comparison
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INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY
AGENDA (Cont’d)
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Disease is much more harmful to the Nation
and National security
Shift to internal state conflict provides a
breeding ground for new diseases
Vectors:Population dislocations & their
consequences, living styles, international
travel, extended commerce, climate change,
war or economic decline
Cannot be contained within borders
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INFECTIOUS DISEASE
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Deadly Seven -
TB, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Hepatitis B/C,
Respiratory Infections, Diarrheal Diseases, measles
Emergent Infectious Disease
Ratio of Deaths From Disease to War - 52:1
Potential Weapon of War
Potential Economic Weapon
Enormous Implications for State Survival,
Stability, Prosperity, socio-economic
development
Trade Embargoes & Travel Restrictions
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REASONS FOR RESURGENCE
NEW VECTORS
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Population dislocations
Sudden population movements (humanitarian
emergencies)
Living styles – urbanization
Rising international travel
Extended commerce
Inappropriate use of antibiotics
Breakdown of public health due to conflict or
economic decline
Climate changes
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IMPLICATIONS FOR STATE
SURVIVAL/STABILITY/PROSPERITY
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Premature death and debilitation of the
population
Erodes worker productivity
Undermines state prosperity and legitimacy
High levels of psychological stress in
population
Fosters internal and external migration
Migration to cities
Threatens states ability to defend itself and
project force
Generates institutional fragility
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TERRORISM
The
conflict tool
of the 1990s
Terrorism is Not New
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Weapon of choice in intra-state conflict
Targeting of civilians in conflict
Rape as a weapon of war
The destruction of cultural and religious
monuments
Ethnic cleansing
Genocide
Forced population displacements
Bombing
Killing of political opposition
Attacks on ethnic groups
Center of Excellence
Globalization
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Ability to Participate in Economic
Models
Slow Socioeconomic Development
Challenge to Democratic Development
Provoke Economic Decay, social
Fragmentation, Political Destabilization
Pressures on National Support Services
such as Health
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CONSEQUENCES OF THE THREATS
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State capacity and security is impaired
Diminishes prospects for state survival and
prosperity
Destroys State ability to meet needs
– Survival
– Protection from physical harm (internal, external,
ecological threats)
– Economic prosperity
– Territorial integrity
– Effective governance
– Stability
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Generates Conflict
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