Transcript TREND ANALYSIS

TREND
ANALYSIS
ASSIGNMENT
EngC 1011H
COREY
For most people, the terms "trend"
and "fad“ are used interchangeably.
• When the media tell us "what's
hot" they label them as trends.
• Someone who wears the latest
fashions or has obscure new
music on their iPod is called
"trendy."
This could be just a discussion of
semantics, but perhaps there is a
difference.
For that, we need look no further than
sociologist Dr. Dre on "Encore," the
title song from an Eminem album:
I'm a trend; I set one every time I'm
in/ I go out and just come back full
circle again/You a fad. That means
you something that we already had/
But once you're gone, you don't
come back/ Too bad--you're off the
map now; radar can't even find you.
In other words, fads are shortterm fanaticisms; a blip in
culture time whereby it seems
the whole world is joined in
the same craze. Exciting and
electric as they are, they burn
out fast.
A fad is a fast and furious practice,
product, or interest, fueled by
tremendous hype and followed by a
deep decline. Usually isolated to a
few market segments, or particular
demographic groups, fads are selfcontained, short-lived phenomena.
Witness the short-lived
era of the Trucker Hat
(2001-2003, depending
on whom you ask).
Or Rubik's Cubes,
virtual reality, grunge,
day traders, and
countless others.
As Dre points out, fads are generally
not missed once they are gone.
We want fad amnesia, to forget them
and bury them away. . . at least until
the next generation revives them as
retro goofs. That's because they stand
for a certain point in time that we
have moved past.
Trends, though, may represent
long-term changes or movements
that are substantial to society.
They become part of our DNA,
even though they may begin with
just a few people, the trendsetters.
A trend is a slower, steadier
development. Trends are
characterized by new ways of
doing business, new lifestyle
practices, the changing needs of
customers and new products or
services that render older ones
obsolete.
While trends don’t usually generate
as much enthusiasm as fads and
take longer to develop, they are
longer lasting and far more
widespread. Instead of plummeting
to their demise, many trends evolve
into permanent shifts in the ways
we live, work, and interact with
others.
Many types of trends exist,
including industry, economic,
societal, cultural, demographic,
and technological.
What you’re looking for . . .
• Some service, product, behavior, or value
that extends in one direction, follows a
course that is traceable over time.
• A line of movement that shows a
prevailing inclination, a statistically
detectable change.
• A shift or veer in a new direction that is
more than a current style or preference.
Fads span several categories as
well, most notably, entertainment,
fashion and lifestyle.
Both trends and fads begin on the
fringe and move toward the
center (the mainstream), but fads
fall away, while trends continue
to penetrate larger groups with
lasting effects.
Uncovering the epiphany - Fads
create a frenzy and fade; trends
spur a transformation in our
culture.
More fascinating still, many fads
are the byproducts of larger,
looming trends.
Take the portable
music trend
spurred by the
eighties boom
box, which then
evolved into the
nineties walkman
and matriculated
into the
millennium with
the iPod.
While the hardware has been
replaced with devices that are
more popular and portable, this
trend has rocked steady for
decades (and may already be
classified as a permanent shift).
Trendsetters get the ball rolling,
like the first geeks who began file
sharing on the Internet in the midnineties.
They led to the digitalization of
music, which has built new
industries and changed the way
most of us consume music.
Or JFK, a trendsetter
in many ways, who
was credited with
influencing men in the
early sixties to go
hatless. Since then,
practically no one
outside of a costume
party, swing band or
mafia film wears a
Fedora.
Trends have staying power.
No matter how long since their
initial popularity, they still matter.
Take hip-hop music:
• It could have been labeled an early eighties
fad given its centrality on the streets of NYC.
• Now it's at the foundation of our popular
culture.
• From Billboard and Total Request Live to ad
jingles, with the look and fashion adorned by
most every mallrat in Iowa.
• Hip-hop and urbanization of culture was a
trend that took hold over the last twenty
years.
Real trends have depth.
Something causes their
popularity and acceptance.
In the example above, hiphop must have fused itself
to our culture for a reason.
Understanding that is the job of
sociologists, trendwatchers,
market researchers and other
professionals who are sought to
analyze society and forecast the
trends that will change the game.
Their trend reports
need to be more
than lists of what's
in at the moment.
That is only
spotting trends or
fads
Real trendwatchers . . .
• Use analysis to understand what is behind
the fad.
• Examine why the trend is here.
• Prognosticate what its prospects are for
trend-hood.
• Are wary of the latest hype and media spin,
which often portray minor movements as
national sensations.
Some tips to help YOU
be a trend-watcher . . .
First, prove
the trend
exists.
Second,
determine
what's
driving the
trend’s
development.
Trends are fueled by
myriad strategic factors—a
confluence of events—that
culminate and fortify one
another to produce fertile
ground for the trends to
take hold.
Such drivers include
technological innovations;
government regulations and
deregulations; economic
developments; demographic
shifts; lifestyle changes; and new
values, attitudes, and
preferences.
Assess its overall
appeal, the trend’s
ability—and mobility—
to achieve mainstream
status.
Gauge if it's easily
adopted by various
demographic groups
and widespread market
segments.
Is the price point
tenable or prohibitive?
It took producing a midmarket SUV before this
automotive category was
declared a trend. The same
goes for the home
computer; in the seventies
computers were far too
clunky, and much too
costly, to achieve
mainstream adoption.
Equally
important is
availability;
is the product
readily
available to
the
mainstream?
Make a
convincing
case for a
particular
cause (s)
Identify the trend’s level of
influence:
Is it an incident isolated to one
or two market segments or is it
broadly based?
How readily does it replicate
across market segments and
societies?
Remember, fads fade and tend not to
replicate, but trends transcend such
barriers and manifest themselves
through an array of related tendencies
and cultures. Chart the trend's
connections to other categories,
cultures, and consumer segments.
Track the trend’s progression.
Is it progressing or regressing?
Trends steadily progress and
build momentum over time.
Take hip-hop, a two-prong trend
encompassing entertainment and
lifestyle preferences. While in its heyday for the mainstream, rap actually
made its way onto the music scene in
the eighties. Had hip-hop been a fad, it
would have come and gone (and come
and gone again) during the last two
decades.
Instead, hip-hop has proven itself
as a highly profitable business of
music, movies, apparel and
accessories (bling!). And rap
music has established itself as a
respectable genre in its own right
(arguably a permanent shift for the
music industry).
In order to effectively analyze a
trend, as opposed to simply
reporting on a trend, you must
consider the effects of the trend
on the culture.
If applicable,
suggest
possible
solutions for
the trend.
An area that
doesn't receive
nearly the
coverage it
should is the
countertrend.
Simply put,
each trend is
matched by a
prevailing
countertrend.
Look at the growing
obsession with
organic foods and
the rising levels of
obesity. Sure, people
are trying to trim
down with healthier
diets, but processed
food revenues are
growing at equally
compelling rates.
Music and fashion thrive on
counter-trending
(though it could also be
called counter-“fadding”).
Look at Avril Lavigne poised as the antiBritney, or Ashlee Simpson, primed as the
antithesis of her songstress sister Jessica.
For most trends, an opposite
countertrend exists.
If you feel as though you have no
unique insights to offer on a trend,
hunt for a counter-trend!
''Anyone can be a trendmeister,''
says Larry Samuel, a partner in
Iconoculture and co-author of
The Future Ain't What It Used To
Be.
Trend-spotting isn't just for
entrepreneurs looking to start
new companies or for
marketing cutting-edge
products.
Consider the growing cultural emphasis
on well-being.
Take apart that trend,
says Mary Meehan of Iconoculture,
and you'll see several minitrends:
•
•
•
•
the yearning for mental and physical health
a desire for greater balance in one's life
a revitalized interest in hearth and home
a new focus on spirituality
The response:
• Grocery stores are stocking natural and
organic foods, medicinal herbs, and nontoxic
cleaning supplies.
• Some insurance companies have expanded to
cover alternative medicine.
• Hardware stores are carrying air and water
purifiers, nontoxic paints, and test kits for
detecting contaminants such as lead.
How do you start?
• Valuable information is everywhere you look.
• Read magazines, newspapers, and web articles; and watch
TV news shows to spot recurring themes.
• Scan Web sites, forums, and chat rooms. File away
information for future reference.
• Examine whether the fads around you add up to the deeper,
wider trends.
• Recognize that the obvious often isn't so obvious. You may
see something in front of you, but when you analyze it, you
see it's really something else. How many people go out and
jog for an hour, then go home and eat a pint of ice cream?
That's fitness and fatness in the same person.
Big deal or big dud?
Some times it’s tough to tell
a fad from a trend
TONGUE-SPLITTING
• Hard to find qualified
practitioner
• Involves surgery
• Long-term recovery
• Tough to reverse
• Difficult for
employment
• Scary looking!
BODY PIERCING
• Done at many malls
• Quick and relatively
painless
• Recovery involves
cotton balls and
peroxide
• Holes close if not used
• Mainstream appeal
Research and analyze a current
cultural trend
A. Prove the trend exists
B. Analyze causes of the trend
C. Make a convincing case for a particular
cause(s)
D. Refute counter causal arguments
E. Consider the effects of the trend on the
culture
F. Consider solutions (if appropriate)
Research
A. Confirms your own hunches about the
trend
B. Suggests other causes for the trend
C. Provides evidence in support of your
proposed causes
D. Suggests effects of the trend
E. Suggests problems/solutions for the trend
Basic Features of Trend Analysis
• Presentation of Trend
• A Convincing Causal Argument
• An On-going Questioning
Presentation of Trend
• Introduce engagingly
• Prove existence of trend through
anecdotes, statistics
• Provide details, background, current status
• Thesis: identify both the trend and the
main reason or reasons for the existence of the
trend
A Convincing Causal Argument
• Include the presentation of the causes
in an effective order
• Provide evidence in support of each
cause
• Anticipate counter arguments
• Refute counter arguments
CAUSAL CHAIN
Remote causes
Immediate causes
Situation
Immediate effects
Remote effects
Foreign Competition
Sales, profit drop
Clothing factory closes
Jobs vanish
Town flounders
Questions to Ask Yourself
While Drafting
• Have I mentioned only one or two causes
when I should be accounting for several?
• Have I mistakenly assumed that
something that occurred prior to the
beginning of the trend was therefore a
cause?
• How can I be sure not to confuse causes with
effects? Sometimes effects can be sustaining
the causes of a trend, but if that is so, I should
acknowledge it as such.
• Are any of my causes also results?
• How can I show readers that I have accepted
the burden of proof? I must offer proof for all
my assertions and not assume the reader will
understand or make connections.
• How can I refute counter arguments without
ridiculing their proponents?
Requirements
A. Conduct primary/secondary source research.
B. Submit a one-page typed proposal.
C. Submit, with final paper, an annotated bibliography in
accordance with MLA format.
D. Prepare a copy of the rough draft for each group member, the
instructor, and yourself.
E. Document your sources using internal citation in accordance
with MLA format.
F. Submit a final paper of 8-10 pages.
G. Submit all process work, including research notes, drafts with
cover sheet explaining revisions, critiques by group members,
interview notes and write-ups.
H. Grade group members’ quality of written critique, level of
involvement, and contribution in peer group sessions.