Transcript Number (mill.)

Demographic Transition in Thailand
•
Population as enumerated by the
censuses.
Year
Population
1910
8.3 Million
1919
9.2 Million
1929
11.5 Million
1937
14.5 Million
1947
17.4 Million
1960
26.3 Million
1970
34.4 Million
1980
44.5 Million
1990
54.5 Million
2000
60.9 Million
2010
65.4 Million*
* Cross border migrants were included.
Population in Thailand
increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m.
in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010.
Demographic Transition in Thailand
Number (mill.)
Rate (per 1,000)
Population
CBR
CDR
• The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s.
• CBR (>4%) – CDR (<1%)  Growth rate >3% per year.
Demographic Transition in Thailand
Number (mill.)
Rate (per 1,000)
•
Now, the “Thai population” is
stabilizing at 64-65 million.
•
The population growth rate is
0.5% per year.
CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%)
 GR of 0.5% per year.
Population
CBR
CDR
• The reduction of growth rate,
from >3% (40 years ago) to
0.5% (now) is due mainly to
sharp decline in fertility during
the past 3 decades.
CBR at 4% (40 years
ago) to 1.2% (now).
Fertility Transition in Thailand
Four periods of fertility
transition in Thailand:
1. High fertility :
before 1970
2. Fertility decline :
1970–1990
3. Low fertility :
1991–1996
4. Below replacement
fertility : 1997–present
Note :
SPC = Survey of Population Change
SOFT = Survey of Fertility in Thailand
CPS = Contraceptive Prevalence Survey
LS
= Longitudinal Survey
NS
= National Survey
CUPS = Contraceptive Use Patterns in Thailand
Fertility Transition in Thailand
Number of births
(100,000)
“Replacement level”
Note: Before 2009, numbers of births are from vital registration and TFRs are from
Survey of Population Change. After 2009, numbers of births are from projection and
TFRs are from logistic fitted.
Number of births per
year has been declining.
• From 1963-1983, “one
million birth
population cohort”
• In 2010, 0.78 million
births registered.
• TFR a 2, at least 0.9
million births needed.
• If TFR at 2020 = 1.2,
number of births
would be 0.6 million.
Fertility Transition in Thailand
Average number of children per woman (throughout her
childbearing period)
Highland ethnic groups
Whole kingdom 1.5
Urban
1.0
Rural
1.7
(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006)
Region
Bangkok
Central
North
Northeast
South
(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006)
0.9
1.2
1.6
2.0
1.5
Karen
Hmong
(Source: Gray, et al. 2004)
2.2
4.8
Muslims in 3 most
southern provinces
3.4
(Source: Est. from RH Survey 2003)
Cross-border migrant
women
Myanmar 3.6
(Source: Pimonpan & Sukanya, 2004)
Number of years for TFR to decline
from 5.5 to 2.2
Thailand: Population in broad age groups,
2000-2030 (thousand)
Age group
2000
2010
NUMBER
2020
2030
0-14
15,674
14,629
12,661
10,203
15-29
15,517
16,076
14,989
13,857
30-64
27,198
32,183
34,539
34,199
(42,715)
(48,259)
(49,528)
(47,956)
65+
3,958
5,251
7,594
11,209
Total
62,347
68,139
69,782
69,369
Low projection
(15-64)
PERCENTAGE
Low projection
0-14
25
21
18
15
15-29
25
24
21
20
30-64
44
47
50
49
(69)
(71)
(71)
(69)
65+
6
8
11
16
Total
100
100
100
100
(15-64)
Source: Author’s calculation; figures from United Nations Population Division, 2008
Trends in percentage of population aged 65+
Source: United Nations Population Division 2008, medium projection.
Thailand’s new demographic situation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Nearing end of population growth
Remarkable change in age pyramids
Declining child and young adult population
Ageing population
Demographic dividend ended
Migration patterns lowering av. education
Population decline in many rural areas
Growth of the medium cities
Population Pyramids of Thailand
1960-2030
Thailand: Index of Growth of Age Groups,
2000-2030
Population Ageing and Growth of the
Older Population, Thailand 1970-2030
Impact of Fertility Decline
• Decrease in number of students entering compulsory
education, especially primary schools in rural villages.
School size in 2008
13,909 schools with less than 120 students.
381 schools of less than 20 students.
262 schools with no students.
• Caused by
a) Declining number of births
b) Parents’ out-migration
c) Commuting to urban schools because of better roads and
transportation
Population-responsive policies
• How to best utilize and care for growing
elderly population?
• How to raise human capital of a shrinking
workforce?
• How to prepare health care workforce to
adapt to changing care needs?
• How to best utilize foreign workers?
• How to plan for growing cities and rural
population decline?
Living arrangements of persons age 60 and above,
Thailand 1986-2007
Percentage of households having members attending postsecondary education, by indicator of economic status
Influencing population trends
• Over three decades, Thailand focused on
lowering fertility rates
• Total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5, far below
replacement level
• Longer-term implications of fertility maintained
at this level or below are negative:
– Population ageing
– Contraction of workforce
– Negative population momentum – population decline
Policy Consideration
• More emphasis should be on quality than on
quantity of births.
• Thailand should have both pro- and anti-natalist
policy :
– Pro-natalist :
– Anti-natalist :
among adults, intended couples.
among adolescents.
Births from adolescent mothers, 2009
Age of mother
%
Number (x 1,000)
Under 15
0.38
2.9
Under 20
16.08
120.1
Source: Calculated from registered births reported in Public Health Statistics, not adjusted for under
registration.
Policy Consideration
Incentives for pro-natalist :
• Tax reduction for unlimited number of children.
• Revise the regulation on the limited 3 children to
receive financial and welfare assistance from the
government.
• Any incentive measure must not lead to
discrimination of labour employment and
promotion.
Learning from Asian neighbours
• Other low-fertility Asian countries are seriously
concerned
• Too slow in introducing pro-natalist policies
• Thailand should now introduce a set of measures
to facilitate raising of children:
–
–
–
–
–
Paid maternity (and paternity) leave
Flexible working hours
Eldercare support
Subsidized childcare
Tax incentives and/or baby bonus schemes
• Can such measures work?