Transcript Moore`s Law
Moore’s Law Kyle Doran Greg Muller Casey Culham May 2, 2007 Agenda • • • • Definition Feasibility Self-fulfilling Prophecy Implications to Technology Industry • Implications to Society • Conclusions and the future… Definition • Gordon Moore's famous observation made in 1965 • It projects the doubling of (density of) transistors every few years. (18 months) • Moore's Law still holds true today. • Intel expects that it will continue to do so through at least the end of this decade. Feasibility In 1965 many people didn’t believe it was possible. It has held true and applied to other technologies as well. How long can it go on? Will integrated circuits be replaced? Prediction vs. Actual Source: Wikipedia Dashed Lines: Predefined Solid Line: Modeled Line (eyeballed) Self-fulfilling prophecy • Would it have happened if it didn’t have to? • Companies feel pressured to meet expectations. • As pressures to improve exponentially rises, so do research costs. Implications to Technology Industry • Engineers embrace Moore’s Law if it were the truth. • Drive to follow Moore’s Law has been forced. – Industry does (or uses) the following to satisfy Moore’s Law. • Shrinking transistors • Device invention • Packaging • Architectural innovation • Electronic design automation (EDA) Implications to Technology Industry • The force that continues to drive Moore’s Law = Company growth – An electronics company cannot grow unless it makes smaller and more powerful hardware devices. – However, a countering feature of this growth is that companies often wait to continue Moore’s Law, because they must realize gains from the investment in the previous device. Implications to Society • Smaller, faster, stronger. – More computing power. – Better more complex software as computers gain efficiency for their constant size. – Interconnectedness will increase. – Reliance on computers, as they can do more, will increase. – Other implications? Future Expectations • 2023 the electrons will be too small to channel data with current methods/material – Different material added to silicon – Different components other then transistors • HP: “crossbar latch” • Zettacore, Nantero: Nanotechnologies Conclusion • What do you think about Moore’s Law? • Questions?